Stuart Paul analyzes the April CPI print, noting it's hot but with mechanical distortions in shelter data due to government shutdown sampling issues. He argues the Fed is firmly focused on inflation, requiring unemployment above 5% for a cut this year. He sees a cutting bias but no hike, despite market speculation about tighter policy under Kevin Warsh.
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Bloomberg
7.0
Financial Media
Stuart Paul 6.5
Financial Media
Stuart Paul 6.5
5/13/2026 12:34:18 AM
dxy
A Fed that is hawkish on inflation and unlikely to cut supports a stronger dollar, though Paul does not explicitly address FX.
metals
Not directly discussed by Paul, but the broader context of supply disruptions and inflation supports upward pressure on metals as a hedge.
ndx
Paul does not directly address equities, but his view that inflation is hot and the Fed will not cut implies a restrictive environment for growth stocks, consistent with the Nasdaq selloff described by hosts.
rut
Paul's view that the labor market needs to deteriorate significantly for a cut, combined with higher energy costs hitting lower-end consumers, suggests headwinds for small caps.
wti
Paul explicitly mentions supply-side shocks from the conflict in Iran pushing up headline inflation, which will ripple through energy costs. This implies upward pressure on oil prices.
yields
Paul states the Fed is firmly focused on inflation, a cut is unlikely this year, and the cutting bias is appropriate but not actionable. This implies yields remain elevated or could edge higher as rate cut expectations are pushed out.
Jamie Dimon warns of too much exuberance in markets given geopolitical risks (Middle East, Ukraine, US-China) and inflation. He says fixing 'stupid trade issues' between the US and Europe would pave the way for better growth. He notes AI will be a plus but spending is inflationary, and deregulation is real.
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JPMorgan
9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Jamie Dimon 9.5
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Jamie Dimon 9.5
5/13/2026 12:34:18 AM
dxy
Dimon does not address FX directly; his mixed signals on growth and inflation suggest no clear dollar direction.
metals
Not directly discussed, but Dimon's inflation concerns and geopolitical risks support metals as a hedge.
ndx
There is a little bit too much exuberance out there... I think the market is kind of exuberant and it may not be completely justified.
rut
Dimon's warning on exuberance and geopolitical risks suggests small caps, which are more sensitive to economic uncertainty, could face headwinds.
wti
Dimon explicitly cites the Middle East war as a big problem that continues to get worse, implying upward pressure on oil.
yields
Dimon says AI spending is inflationary and there is too much exuberance, implying the Fed may need to keep rates higher, supporting yields.
Yoni Assia reports retail investors are switching from crypto to commodities (metals, oil, gas) due to volatility. He notes retail is consistently grabbing beta from institutions during selloffs. eToro launched AI agent portfolios using Grok, seeing 50% weekly growth and 500,000 trades. He also discusses prediction markets and the acquisition of Zengo wallet.
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explicit
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eToro
5.5
Fintech Company $5.00B
Yoni Assia 5.0
Fintech Company $5.00B
Yoni Assia 5.0
5/13/2026 12:34:18 AM
dxy
Assia does not discuss the dollar; his commentary on retail flows does not imply a clear FX direction.
metals
We are seeing people that switched from crypto into commodities... very exciting opportunities in metals and in oil and natural gas.
ndx
Assia notes retail buys the dip during selloffs like today's CPI-driven Nasdaq decline, implying continued volatility as retail and institutions take opposing sides.
rut
Assia's observation that retail buys dips during selloffs suggests small caps could see sharp moves as retail and institutional flows diverge.
wti
We are seeing people that switched from crypto into commodities... very exciting opportunities in metals and in oil and natural gas.
yields
Assia does not discuss yields directly; his focus on retail behavior and volatility does not provide clear direction for bonds.