Kettner argues the AI narrative crack is overblown; the S&P is only a few percent off highs. He sees rotation within tech (buying hyperscalers, selling semis) and broadening into European banks and construction. US exceptionalism has an expiration date around August, after which Europe and EM rates become attractive. He is underweight Treasuries, double overweight EM rates and gold, but sees gold having further downside near-term as de-dollarization pauses.
implicit
implicit
explicit
explicit
implicit
HSBC
8.2
Investment Bank $1686.00B
Max Kettner 8.5
Investment Bank $1686.00B
Max Kettner 8.5
6/24/2026 2:21:57 PM
dxy
Kettner says rate differentials justify sub-1.10 on EUR/USD, implying further USD strength near-term, but sees an expiration date around August.
metals
Gold has some further ways to go down because the de-dollarization story is really put to bed at least for a couple of months.
ndx
Kettner sees rotation within tech (buying hyperscalers, selling semis) which implies the NDX is rangebound near-term as the two groups offset each other.
rut
Kettner expects broadening into European banks and construction, and lower oil prices supporting growth. This implies a cautious positive view on small caps (RUT) as the rotation broadens.
wti
The new range is $75. Who cares? That's good enough for a lot of that growth narrative.
yields
Kettner is underweight Treasuries, implying he expects yields to rise (prices to fall) in the near term, though he sees a dovish pivot from the Fed in 2-3 months.
Elstrom sets up Micron earnings as a key test for the AI narrative after a 13% drop. Micron needs to show sustained demand for high-bandwidth memory and provide strong guidance. The memory chip industry is highly cyclical, and investors worry that the current boom may be a short-term blip. SK Hynix's $29B US listing adds capacity but risks overbuilding.
Yields
implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Bloomberg
7.0
Financial Media
Peter Elstrom 4.0
Financial Media
Peter Elstrom 4.0
6/24/2026 2:21:57 PM
ndx
Elstrom highlights extreme uncertainty around Micron earnings and the AI trade, with the Philly chip index down 8% and Micron down 13%. The outcome of earnings will determine near-term direction.