UK had strong Q1 GDP growth (0.6% QoQ) but outlook is gloomy due to Iran war energy shock. Headline inflation revised up 1.5pp by early next year, causing real income squeeze. BOE expected to hold rates but vote split may widen with more members favoring hikes. Communications credibility at risk if they talk tough but don't act.

BOJ Governor Ueda hospitalized for liver cyst infection, will miss the two-day meeting. Deputy will preside. Rate decision seen as a done deal but focus is on how hawkish the press conference will be and whether they telegraph another hike by year-end. Weak yen (160 vs USD) remains a key inflation driver. Fiscal response via extra budget to cushion energy costs is the focal point.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure to demonstrate independence amid political expectations for rate cuts, but inflation flare-up from Trump's trade war gives him cover to hold rates. The Fed will likely scrub language telegraphing cuts and the dot plot may show fewer cuts or higher dots. Warsh's communication style and potential changes to Fed communication (dot plot) are key market focuses.

The Makerfield by-election could reshape British politics. Andy Burnham, the most popular politician in the country, is running to get back into Parliament as a prerequisite for challenging PM Keir Starmer for Labour leadership. The contest is not a foregone conclusion with a strong challenge from Reform UK. Burnham's record on buses and Greater Manchester's economic outperformance are key campaign themes.

Kroger expected weakest sales and profit growth of the year, focusing on e-commerce fulfillment and price cuts to compete with Amazon/Walmart. CarMax earnings expected down 30% YoY as used car sales reflect consumer strain. DraftKings seen as clearest World Cup betting winner but depends on converting the event into new users without excessive promotions.