O'Neil argues the U.S. auto industry's strength is its North American integration; cutting off trade would make cars more expensive and less competitive. Mexico and Canada are the top export markets for U.S. companies. China transshipment via Mexico is a key concern, and all parties are open to a North American fortress vis-a-vis China.
Yields

implicit
Oil
Metals
USD
Council on Foreign Relations 6.0
Policy Institute
Shannon O'Neil 7.5
6/27/2026 3:00:33 PM
ndx
O'Neil's view that nearshoring and North American integration are positive for competitiveness supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for tech (NDX), which benefits from efficient supply chains.
rut
O'Neil emphasizes the strength and resilience of North American supply chains. No major disruption expected for small-cap companies integrated in this trade, suggesting a stable, sideways outlook for RUT.
Krugman argues NAFTA/USMCA is not the cause of U.S. auto job losses; turning away from trade would not add jobs. He now supports conditional tariffs on Chinese cars for national security and market stability, but opposes broad tariffs on Canada/Mexico. Predictability in trade policy is paramount.
Yields

implicit
Oil
Metals
USD
Independent 1.0
Other
Paul Krugman 9.0
6/27/2026 3:00:33 PM
ndx
Krugman supports conditional tariffs on Chinese cars but opposes broad tariffs. Tech (NDX) benefits from integrated supply chains and is less exposed to auto tariffs. His call for predictability supports investment, cautiously positive for NDX.
rut
Krugman sees no fundamental trade conflict with Canada/Mexico; USMCA is not a problem. Predictability is key. This suggests no major disruption to small-cap (RUT) companies reliant on North American trade, implying a stable, sideways outlook.
Jarrell describes Linamar's deeply integrated North American supply chain, with parts crossing borders multiple times. He emphasizes that you 'can't unbake the omelet' and that certainty in trade policy is the most critical factor for business investment.
Yields
NDX
Oil
Metals
USD
Linamar 2.5
Industrials
Jim Jarrell 6.5
6/27/2026 3:00:33 PM
rut
Jarrell's emphasis on deep integration and the need for certainty suggests that disruption to North American trade would be highly damaging. His call for stability implies a neutral-to-sideways outlook for small-cap companies in the supply chain, assuming policy remains predictable.