Oil prices are likely to continue declining, potentially to $50/barrel by year-end, driven by Trump's need for lower energy prices ahead of midterms, increased US supply, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Natural gas has led the way down. The US no longer needs the Strategic Petroleum Reserve due to its domestic surplus. Gasoline prices should follow crude lower, potentially below $3/gallon.

inferred
NDX
RUT

explicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 7.0
Financial Media
Mike McGlone 8.5
6/16/2026 11:34:26 PM
wti
I think by the end of the year, crude oil is going to be down in the year... I think that's going to be close to the 50 by the end of the year.
229 calls
+2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
yields
McGlone mentions that stocks usually go down in midterm years, which is a key pressure factor for crude. Lower stock prices and lower oil prices typically correlate with lower yields in the short term, but this is not explicitly stated.
Israel is deeply skeptical of the US-Iran MOU, which does not address core Israeli security goals: ending Iran's nuclear program, stopping ballistic missiles, or halting support for terror proxies. Israel was not consulted and feels no obligation to the deal. The US and Israeli interests are diverging, and Israel will continue to defend itself independently, even at the cost of friction with the US.
Yields
NDX
RUT

inferred
Metals
USD
Former Israeli Ambassador to the United States 1.0
Other
Michael Oren 7.5
6/16/2026 11:34:26 PM
wti
Oren's skepticism about the MOU and the potential for continued conflict with Iran and its proxies suggests ongoing geopolitical risk, which could support oil prices in the short term. However, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a bearish factor. The net effect is cautiously down.
Davis argues Israel has a survival mentality and will keep fighting regardless of US support. He sees the Georgia Senate primary as a key test of Trump's influence vs. Governor Kemp's popularity. He notes that midterms are hard to predict due to low turnout, and Trump's endorsement of Collins gives him an advantage, but Kemp's support for Dooley makes it a real race.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Stonecourt Capital 7.5
Hedge Fund
Rick Davis 5.0
6/16/2026 11:34:26 PM
Congresswoman McClellan is highly skeptical of the US-Iran MOU, noting conflicting statements from US and Iranian officials and the lack of detail on key issues like nuclear inspections and sanctions relief. She questions the value of a deal that leaves Iran able to disrupt global trade. On FISA 702, she supports extension but only with reforms to close loopholes that allow spying on American citizens.
Yields
NDX
RUT

inferred
Metals
USD
U.S. House of Representatives 2.5
Government Agency
Jennifer McClellan 6.0
6/16/2026 11:34:26 PM
wti
McClellan's skepticism about the MOU and her concern that Iran can still disrupt trade and oil prices suggests ongoing uncertainty, which could lead to short-term volatility in oil markets.