Ian Lyngen argues markets are underpricing the risk that Kevin Warsh's Fed will reduce communication and shrink the balance sheet, which would raise volatility and push yields higher. A decline in oil from the US-Iran MOU could be disinflationary, giving the Fed room to wait. The interplay between balance-sheet runoff (upward pressure on rates) and energy-driven disinflation (downward pressure) creates asymmetric outcomes markets are not fully positioned for.

Bloomberg's Omar details the US-Iran MOU: Iran gets immediate right to sell oil and petrochemicals, release of frozen funds, and a potential $300 billion development fund. The Strait of Hormuz could reopen almost immediately upon signing, with maritime traffic returning to pre-war levels in about 30 days. Gulf countries like the UAE are also working to reduce dependency on Hormuz.

Victor Riparbelli, CEO of Synthesia, argues Europe should focus on the application layer of AI rather than trying to replicate US frontier labs, which is a losing battle. He hopes the G7 will avoid AI nationalism and over-regulation, and instead foster collaboration between US and European companies. He emphasizes upskilling the workforce as a key priority.