Economy is growing quite vigorously, could hit 6% nominal GDP. The top-line number is less interesting than what's underneath. 54k of 55k six-month average jobs are in healthcare. Bifurcation is incredible: manufacturing soft, real estate negative. Interest-rate-sensitive sectors are still difficult. Information hiring is negative despite huge AI capex—companies are spending on capex, not people.

The last six-month moving average of jobs is pretty incredible, but almost all in healthcare.

Exactly right. We have a productivity revolution coming. Real productivity means you don't need as much labor. Average hourly earnings today show more slack than the top line suggests. Training and retraining will be a big deal. We need to get housing and real estate moving because they create velocity in non-AI-sensitive areas.

The aging demographic supports healthcare jobs, but the transition will be challenging.

The world is not fully prepared. Things are happening so fast I feel behind by the end of each day. The equity market is not a bubble because earnings and cash flow are growing alongside capex. It's creating greater stratification of the economy. It's one of the most interesting times for investing, but not all good news.

In some areas it's explosive from a growth perspective.

Equities have upside, technicals are great (buybacks > IPOs). I like equities married to income—securitization, high yield. Hard to have a significant default cycle. Take equities, marry them to income, manage volatility. Fed is on hold. There are interesting fixed income opportunities in Europe where yields are higher and growth is slowing.

Don't create any new equities, buybacks are much bigger than IPO calendar.

The divergence is incredible. Weakness is not ubiquitous; it tends to be lower to middle income. There is a cumulative effect from gas prices. The aggregate consumer is still spending, but it's largely older, wealthier net savers keeping consumption in good shape.

Look at the inner world of stocks like Planet Fitness, Shake Shack—incredible divergence.

Recently found Europe interesting. A dollar investor can get close to 7% in Italy, mid-6% in Spain. ECB will try to hike but economy will slow. In the US, hanging in the front to belly of the curve. Trying to create stability income to marry to equity portfolio—like what 60/40 used to do.

I don't think I'll make any real money in interest rate exposure today.

It matters who you are. For a pension fund with a liability, the real rate is attractive. For an individual or endowment without a liability, why take the volatility of the long end when equities have compounding ROE over 20%? Since the war, bonds have done okay but equities have killed it. For two long-duration assets, the answer is clear.

Long-end Treasuries and equities correlate one-for-one these days based on inflation.

This is pretty much nirvana. One person's capex is another's revenue and cash flow. It will probably start moderating in the back half as the fiscal tailwind becomes less intense. My sense is this is as good as it gets, but not turning grossly the other way. Still pretty good, maybe transitioning from very good to good.

People love to say we're going into recession, but I still think you get real rate of growth mid-to-high 2s.