Sebastian Raedler warns that the AI-driven momentum market is the most stretched in 20 years. While Micron's earnings confirm strong demand, the key question is who pays for the $800bn capex. Hyperscalers have underperformed by 15%, suggesting the market doubts their returns. Three data points signal trouble: price increases by frontier models, proliferation of cheap open-source alternatives, and hyperscaler underperformance. He recommends defensive sectors (staples, pharma) as protection, and even bonds as an interesting alternative if the capex boom falters.

BNP Paribas expects the Fed to start hiking in December with three consecutive hikes, potentially starting as early as July. This supports a strong dollar, especially against low-yielders like the yen (target 165-170). The euro may trade towards 1.10 but could rebound. Oil's decline to pre-war levels reduces inflation pressure, but the market was right to look through geopolitical risks. Underlying FX flows were bearish dollar during the war, limiting dollar gains.

Lauren van Biljon sees the Fed's hawkish tilt as more about messaging to a new chairman than a genuine shift. PCE data is key, especially shelter/housing. AI capex is inflationary short-term but disinflationary long-term. Gilts have room to outperform, especially 2-10 year part of the curve; 30-year makes her nervous. US Treasuries look well-positioned as real yields have kept pace with inflation. Credit spreads are tight but all-in yields are attractive; active management is key.

Yotam Segev argues that AI has ushered in a fundamentally new era in cybersecurity where machines fight machines. The vulnerability story is just 'chapter one'; many more challenges are coming. Enterprises need to invest in AI security hand-in-hand with AI transformation. Cyera focuses on the data, identity, and agentic layer—a different challenge from infrastructure vulnerability. He estimates that enterprises are significantly underspending on security relative to their AI budgets.