The dollar can stay strong near-term due to Fed hawkishness, but clients should use current strength to diversify away from USD on a medium/long-term basis. The Fed is unlikely to hike in 2026; core PCE will roll over in 3-6 months. Yen intervention risk is real near-term, but BOJ tightening alone won't turn USD/JPY—Fed repricing matters more. Safer Asian FX bets: CNY, SGD, AUD. Taiwan dollar has 3-4% upside once dollar fades.

Micron earnings confirm the AI rally is backed by real earnings and fundamentals—valuations are still reasonable. The semiconductor cycle is likely only halfway through, with 1-2 years of visibility. SK Hynix's US listing is more about accessing dollar liquidity than protectionism. Labor friction in Korea is a secondary concern for now. KOSPI target of 10,000 implies 30% upside for Samsung and SK Hynix.

Micron's 85% margin guidance signals a structural memory shortage, not just cyclical demand. This is boosting the entire semiconductor supply chain across Asia. AI investment is inflationary via wages, power, and construction costs—key for Fed's core PCE focus. Dollar is on the brink of breakout vs yen, gold, euro. Debased trades (gold, bitcoin) are struggling due to strong dollar and retail shifting to semiconductors.

MSCI's deferral is an opportunity for Indonesia to strengthen fundamentals and fiscal communication. Indonesia's Q1 GDP growth of 5.6%, 800,000 jobs created, 17 months of trade surplus, and $3B FDI in Q1 support the rupiah. The transition from natural resources to human resource-based economy requires adjustment, but 92% of businesses are SMEs still investing. Focus should be on trade and investment attraction.