yields

I want to move towards cutting rates, but you're not going to do it aggressively and fast in case you make a big mistake; the market's priced in for sequential cuts through the end of the year; cautious enough for you going by quarter point.

dxy

the overall weakening dollar... dollar has been strengthening recently in days but in general this year it has weakened a fair amount

metals

gold has been a huge beneficiary of that... real interest rates have come down. And that typically is a big support for gold prices

yields

the expectations that the fed is going to continue to ease here

metals

Ray Dalio explicitly states that gold is a strong diversifier and is performing well amid monetary and debt issues and compares current gold price moves to those in the early seventies, confirming gold (a metal) is sharply up in the short term.

yields

The interviewee expressed caution about cutting rates given the imbalances in debt and monetary policy's limited effectiveness, suggesting a cautious downtrend for yields.

metals

Gold is at record highs, up 50% since the start of the year, Goldman Sachs raised its gold forecast to $4900 by December next year; interviewees note substantial asset inflation away from the dollar including gold acting as a safe haven asset

yields

We have seen of course in response to some of this longer term bond yields globally. I mean you're just coming into this week they were moving to the upside.

metals

Gold rising of 10% to 4300 by the end of next year with significant upside driven by central bank and ETF inflows; central banks remain underweight gold and are expected to continue rapid purchases for about three years; lower rates boost ETF holdings in gold markets.

wti

we have been bearish for a while ... we think we're probably get down to $60–61 a barrel on average for the quarter

ndx

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says that the US economy will accelerate next year as the tech spending picks up

yields

This uptick of inflation that we've been seeing coupled with the jobs payroll jobs numbers deteriorating have put the central bank in a bit of a sticky spot where you're getting deterioration of both sides of the mandate at the same time. If the inflation looks like it's going to be transitory, and I say that word with with with some fear, then I think the employment side of the mandate would be dominant.

ndx

At 22.8 times P/E, some of the highest since the late 90s, valuations are extended and any disappointment could be penalized; however, the transformative potential of AI and earnings beats from mega-cap tech companies support cautious optimism in equities.

yields

I think we're going to see 25 basis point cuts at the next 3 to 4 meetings, which will take us to a three, three and a half zone for the policy rate

yields

if the economic data worsens, if we see the unemployment rate starting to move higher than, say, four and a half, I think the fed gets a lot more active. And they may not have a lot of data, but they're going to look at sentiment, they're going to look at other measures of data. And if things are slowing down, I think they can cut faster because we're still in restrictive territory.

metals

Gold has been on a very impressive run. It’s had the best month in 14 years, up 14% and added two percent more recently.

yields

We want to continue to be mindful of duration risks when it comes to fixed income. We want to be quite careful around not focusing too much on the long end of the curve which is more -- less immune to the fiscal risks we have seen. We have more focused on the five-to-seven-year part of curve which is more insulated.

yields

In our world what you also see is that yields end up rallying. There usually is sort of this flight to quality if you will. Flight to safety that benefits treasuries.

yields

the biggest impact was on long term yield bond yields they climbed

ndx

We do think the momentum is going to continue. As we look ahead to 2026, there are reasons to expect improvement on that front. We are believers that the rally has more upside ahead.

ndx

When we think about what the next decade of leaders within the space are going to look like, history has shown us that it always perpetually changes. It should be a basket of names... within areas where there's going to be meaningful earnings growth.

ndx

When looking at U.S. stocks, focus is on AI names and tech story with quality tilts paying off, suggesting a positive outlook. Also mentions a price cut from here till year end implying a positive medium-term view.

dxy

Broadly speaking, we are expecting something of a stable dollar environment as we go through the rest of this year. Bloomberg US dollar index down about a quarter of 1%.

metals

Gold marching higher again as that potential government shutdown and also the weaker US dollar pushes the metal to a fresh record. Exchange traded funds buying has been driving the gains.

wti

Brent crude and WTI both down about one and a half percent on supply concerns, signals from OPEC+ that they will bring back more production in November.

yields

We are down a few basis points, of course, a few concerns, maybe minor concerns this week, maybe a shutdown. The 30 year yield down to 4.71, the two year yield 3.62, and the ten year yield back down to 4.14.

ndx

Powell commented that stocks prices seem fairly highly valued by many measures, which caused market hesitation and a sell-off.

yields

Fed Chair Jay Powell said near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment are tilted to the downside. He indicated no commitment to rate cuts and emphasized a balance, with a cautious approach to easing policy. No clear indication of falling yields was given.

yields

today, just on the back of the comments, you had a little bit of a pullback in yields. If you start seeing a pronounced deceleration in the labour market or concerns about that, then you could see the long and fall into more of a traditional pattern

yields

If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later to fully restore 2% inflation. We therefore judged it appropriate at our last meeting to take another step to work toward a more neutral policy stance, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4 to 4 and a quarter percent. The Fed is lowering rates cautiously due to increased downside risks to employment and upside inflation risks, indicating possible cautious downward pressure on yields in the near term.

metals

Gold is hitting record highs, up $42 today with repeated new records noted explicitly in the transcript.

yields

Several Fed officials, including Raphael Bostic, indicated no further cuts for the year and showed varied opinions; Jerome Powell and others signaled caution on rates with some arguing rates shouldn’t go lower.

yields

We took a 25 basis point rate cut to a more neutral policy stance; the policy is still modestly restrictive but not on a preset course and will depend on incoming data and risks to inflation and employment. The Fed is balancing dual mandates with risks to inflation being tilted upside and employment downside; with policy shifting toward neutral and potential rate adjustments based on data, yields are expected to remain relatively stable rather than trending clearly up.

dxy

Interviewee explained the dollar forming a wedge and likely to move lower reflecting a softer dollar in the medium to long-term.

metals

Gold is climbing to new all-time highs, which is explicitly noted as a safe haven move in the context of current market conditions.

ndx

They stated that earnings are supportive, and record highs on the Nasdaq are expected to continue in the near term.

yields

I do think we'll get more cuts, but six, I believe by the end of next year seems pretty aggressive.

yields

I think the days of higher yields are here to stay, because of elevated policy rates and a shift in demand towards price sensitive investors, leaving scope for long term yields to remain elevated. The interviewee reasons that yields will stay higher due to Fed policies and changing demand dynamics in fixed income, implying an upward medium-term yield direction but without mention of a 'sharp' increase.

ndx

The discussion highlights massive investments and scaling of AI infrastructure and computing power by Nvidia and OpenAI, indicating strong growth prospects for technology and AI-related sectors, which are major components of the Nasdaq 100 index.

yields

The FOMC lowered the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4 to 4.25%, and the updated dot plot projections signal two additional 25 basis point cuts by year-end.

yields

Shorter term inflation expectations have tended to respond to near-term inflation. So if inflation goes up, inflation expectations will predict that it takes just a little while to get back down. Longer term inflation expectations have been rock solid around 2%.

yields

The interviewee notes that a quarter point rate cut alone is not sufficient but indicates a path of rate adjustments to support the labor market amid signs of economic softening. This implies cautious easing (downward direction) in yields in the short term based on monetary policy actions.

yields

We are reacting to the much lower level of job creation and evidence of softening in the labor market, indicating risks moving towards balance, warranting a change in policy.

yields

We've kept policy at a restrictive level this year, but recent labor market data show softening and risks moving toward equality between inflation and employment goals, suggesting moving policy in the direction of neutral.

yields

The interviewee explicitly mentioned a risk-management cut due to cooling labor market, implying cautious easing in rates.

yields

we should be moving in the direction of neutral

yields

the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point Lowering policy interest rate indicates expectation of yields moving down in the short term

yields

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point.

yields

I think you're going to get 25 basis point cuts. You could get some dissents here because you've had the signals for 50 basis points from a few of the governors. But 25, I think, is really done. After the August employment report came out, it became very clear that they're going to really take a look at the employment mandate. The market very much is anticipating 25 basis point cuts at the subsequent meetings, but looking at about 100 basis points in total.

yields

the Fed cut rates in response to labor market risks and inflation concerns, implying cautious monetary easing in the near term The interviewee discussed Fed rate cuts motivated by labor market risk management and inflation concerns, suggesting yields may cautiously decline short term in response to easing monetary policy

yields

The Fed will likely deliver a hawkish cut today and provide limited guidance, signaling at most two cuts this year and next, which is less aggressive than the market's 70 basis points priced in this year, making the Fed's stance somewhat hawkish.

dxy

We're looking at weakness in dollars 10%, 15% versus its peak.

yields

I think we have to see a considerable drop in longer term rates to really get that traditional impact. We had an inverted curve for an extended period of time which everybody indicated should indicate a weakening economy, which we didn't see. So a cautious down direction in yields medium term reflects this view.

metals

Goldman Sachs see Trump's unprecedented pressures on the Fed... as a major catalyst that could potentially drive gold to near $5,000 per ounce.

yields

So, you might have seen a little bit more of an uptick in the ten or the 30s, based upon the strong consumer data, but we just haven't seen that. So, bonds are staying relatively flat.

yields

The fed is in the wrong place at four and 3/8 for the fed funds rate... They're about 100 basis points too high relative to neutral. So they need to do a recalibration 2.0 another hundred basis points off the rate. The interviewee expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates cumulatively by 100 basis points starting with a dovish 25 basis point cut, implying sharp downward movement in yields in the short term.

yields

I think we probably do need a rate cut

wti

OPEC agreed to bring another 1.6 million barrels a day of capacity back into the market, having agreed to bring online 2.5 million barrels a day in the last six months. There's a lot of Opec+ barrels coming into the market as these attacks go.