Hassett on the oil outlook: There's going to be more oil than you've ever seen before

Hassett argues that Saudi and UAE pipelines are now running closer to capacity after the war, and once strait traffic normalizes (>100 ships/day), global oil supply will surge, pushing prices down. He sees the geopolitical risk premium declining due to Trump's diplomatic resolve, and expects more oil than ever before, with Iran not obtaining a nuclear weapon.

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Middle East risk premium cautious down

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Hassett on the oil outlook: There's going to be more oil than you've ever seen before

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the global oil market is going to be safer. And there's going to be more oil than you've ever seen before. And risk premium in the Middle East will go down

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reliable positive edge across multiple calls

6/18/2026 6:09:50 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-8.10%	+4.05%
6/5/2026 7:48:07 PM	short term down	7 days later	-11.56%	+11.56%

Kevin Hassett

Saudi and UAE pipelines were operating below capacity before the war; due to strait closures they've found ways to operate closer to capacity. Global inventories have been drawn down significantly.

Once traffic resumes at over 100 ships per day, oil supply will surge and prices will come down further.
Kevin Hassett

A 60-day memorandum of understanding is in place; the President's resolve is being tested, but nobody should test Donald Trump's resolve.

There was a test this week and the President delivered a pushback.
Kevin Hassett

The macro picture: the straits will open, Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, the global oil market will be safer, and there will be more oil than ever before.

The risk premium in the Middle East will decline because of the peace President Trump has negotiated.

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