metals

gold is going up due to inflation risks still here, trade war coming back, Chinese households buying significant amounts of gold via ETFs, and central banks divesting from US treasuries and buying gold instead Strong demand for gold is driven by persistent inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and price-insensitive buyers such as Chinese households and central banks increasing allocations to gold.

yields

there's more lift in inflation coming because of tariffs, lifting inflation because of the weaker dollar, if inflation is going up and we now start cutting too much, that of course raises the risk that the fed should not be talking about rate cuts, they should maybe even talk about rate hikes The market expects rate cuts from the dot plot, but the interviewee explicitly warns that inflation risks remain elevated due to tariffs and a weaker dollar, which could force the Fed to keep yields elevated or higher.

dxy

Dollar strengthening again today as Euro heads toward 116, but with some risk of squeeze given consensus positioning. Dollar rally is under test and probably short lived given macro dynamics.

metals

American rare earth miners up 20-25%, critical metals also strongly up amid concerns over China's export controls. Market expects continued geopolitical tensions over rare earths boosting US miner stocks.

ndx

Nasdaq 100 futures are rebounding strongly after Friday's 3.5% decline, with tech stocks like Nvidia leading gains. Investors are buying the dip in tech stocks amidst mixed market sentiment.

yields

We saw a 10 basis point decline across the yield curve on Friday. The bond market is closed today but the test comes when it reopens. Politics and trade talks are influencing yields now. Market caution due to geopolitical risk and trade tensions, with uncertainty about whether the recent decline in yields will persist.

metals

I think stablecoins, including tether, maybe one of the largest buyers of gold today. That corresponds with gold essentially going up every day and gold going up to a new high. Gold’s rally is being driven by demand tied to stablecoins like Tether, which need to back gold holdings, thus supporting prices despite broader market conditions.

ndx

I think the sell off Friday is giving us a bit of a gift because that surge in the VIX 32% rise is the 39th highest ever one day surge, and the one month median return is almost 3% of the 38 other instances. So I think the S&P could add 200 points between today and mid November. Positive tailwinds include US dominance in AI and blockchain initiatives, valuations like Nvidia being cheaper on a forward PE basis than traditional retailers, and interest rates coming down acting as an elixir for stocks. Despite recent volatility, a lot of good news is not yet priced in and investors remain reluctant on the sidelines.

ndx

We think technology is one of the best places to be with the best earnings growth in the world today. The earnings revisions for technology have been the best, and technology profits are driving stocks here. Earnings growth in technology, especially in the US, is strong and is the main driver of equity performance in the short term.

metals

Mark stated that gold was up 50% in the last year and is a great hedge against global and domestic risks, showing bullishness on metals over a medium term.

ndx

Mark mentioned concern that AI and tech stocks could revisit lows like in March if the China-US tensions continue, indicating a cautious down outlook for tech in the short term.

wti

But right now, it's a supply driven market and OPEC plus is increasing supply to the market. That's weighing on futures. Supply increases from OPEC+ and US production, combined with concerns about demand due to EV popularity, are weighing on crude oil prices under $60 a barrel.

ndx

I expect one more move higher into year end with a target around 7000 for year-end 2025.

wti

Oil is at $59 and change; gasoline futures have made new lows. Lower oil prices are part of the stimulus, but the question is how stocks respond to that.

yields

The big question is rates. Our story is to watch for a low level where bond yields actually start to signal that the economy may be weakening in a big way. 3.85% on ten-year yields was the low in April. Below 3.85%, the messaging on the economy is worrying into 2026.

metals

Bank of America upgraded their forecast on gold and silver price projecting significant increases in 2026, with gold possibly reaching $5,000 per ounce and silver $65 per ounce. Investment demand for gold increased 14% YOY contributing to price growth. Steep price forecasts and growing investment demand reflect an expectation of a strong upward trend in metals over the medium to long term.

ndx

I think we're going to continue to see this push through in earnings and it moves forward not only for this year but in the next year. So we've got about a 10 to 12% on an annualized basis increase in earnings. and if we see that then we're gonna see a market that's gonna be a double digital any any Earnings growth beating expectations and continued annualized earnings increases around 10-12% support a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Nasdaq100 in the short term.

yields

I want to move towards cutting rates, but you're not going to do it aggressively and fast in case you make a big mistake; the market's priced in for sequential cuts through the end of the year; cautious enough for you going by quarter point.

dxy

The transcript states the dollar is "set for its best week in almost a year” and is performing strongly, described as an "anti-consensus trade" with strength for the greenback ongoing.

wti

I mean, big move today in oil. I think it's reflecting a view in the market that this peace deal means that people can de-risk the Middle East, de-risk geopolitical turmoil for oil.

dxy

The dollar has its best week in about a year, up about 1.5%. Dollar rebound driven by weakness in euro and yen.

metals

Gold up about 50% year to date. Central banks like China and India are buying gold aggressively, showing strong demand which is driving prices higher.

wti

Oil prices are easing after the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

dxy

Look at the dollar. It's pretty amazing actually. Yes, it got hit, but it's still sitting around 99. It settled last week at like 97.75. So it's up substantially on the week. I think that's a positive sign.

yields

We're on pace now to close about a three week low in tens... we're down close to ten basis points... on the week we're only down about 7 or 8 basis points... markets are believing this has a half life and is pretty short.

yields

once you have a formal announcement of what the new target would be, we potentially would see further declines in the bond yield

dxy

Now that the U.S. is not the only source of uncertainty, it becomes a strong dollar story because the US dollar retrace that eight, 9% decline... the dollar had gotten so rich over the last 13 years and had gotten to a point nine months ago where it was probably a level of unsustainability in its valuation.

yields

my view on the Fed is that there is a sufficient reason to believe that interest rate policy in the US right now is not overly restrictive... If they do cut, it will be a very reluctant cut... the cut was only intended to strike a balance between the two mandates... does not imply a long and profound series of rate cuts.

metals

silver has been setting a record setting rally here this year and it's taking out the gold market here and there are a number of reasons for this further outperformance and expectations for further outperformance in the silver market

wti

crude oil market starting to break and look like it could possibly on the front month break below that $60 mark here

metals

We've seen gold recouping that 4000 level bonds as well. People are getting out of fiat currency, buying both gold and silver.

metals

central banks increasing gold holdings; debasement trade and diversification driving metals; copper up nearly 25% year to date; supply disruptions in major mines; strong demand from AI, defense, and electrification creating a perfect storm; market deficit and potential for more upside.

wti

crude has been under pressure for over a year; large supply glut has not impacted prices; physical markets remain tight; refining margins near all-time highs; oil inventories unlikely to increase as economics favor burning, not storing oil.

metals

I’m still optimistic on gold. My price target is $4,000 an ounce and next year my target is $5,500 for gold based on central bank buying activity and diversification across portfolios.

yields

Fed Governor Michael Barr emphasized a cautious approach to adjusting policy, highlighting uncertainty and risks to price stability. The cautious stance indicates no clear directional bias on yields but a careful monitoring of inflation, labor market softness, and economic data suggests yields may not move sharply in either direction in the near to medium term.

wti

OIL PRICES HAVE RETREATED AS THERE'S COOLING TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. OIL IS DOWN 5/10 OF 1%.

metals

We upgrade our silver forecast to $55 an ounce and said as we get up to 4000, we think silver is going to really start to outperform. And I think we're just seeing the early signs of that. Silver is a growth commodity with strong industrial and investor demand, supportive of price increases over the next weeks.

metals

Gold rally started in 2022 with central banks buying gold, Fed cutting rates, and investors piling in, all supporting gold's strong price gains.

ndx

WE'RE LOOKING FOR, SAIRA, ABOUT 7%, 8% IN THE THIRD QUARTER... COMPANIES CAN BEAT EARNINGS AGAIN, PROBABLY PRINT IN THE LOW DOUBLE DIGITS... THE LEADER IS GOING TO BE TECH STOCKS... TECH HAS BEEN THE DRIVER OF U.S. EQUITIES FOR MANY YEARS NOW... THE ODDS ARE IN YOUR FAVOR FOR THIS RALLY TO CONTINUE

metals

gold and silver prices are at record levels and platinum and plating prices have risen very sharply; our outlook both on a short-term and on a long-term basis is that prices will continue to rise; prices might have short-term pullbacks but expected to be shallow

metals

I think people are looking for an alternative and getting a little too greedy at 4000. Historically, when gold gets this stretched, you should be cautious rather than greedy.

metals

The interviewee discusses how gold is rising sharply, driven by momentum, safe haven demand, and concerns around currency and debt, reflecting a strong upward move in metals.

yields

The yield at this 22 billion Dutch auction 4.734%. The when issued market was hovering right around 4.73. So the actual Dutch auction had a slightly higher yield, which means a slightly lower price. Despite a solid auction and strong demand indicated by a low dealer take down, yields moved slightly higher, suggesting cautious short-term upward pressure on yields.

metals

Gold topping $400 an ounce for the first time ever and hitting another record high just this morning.

yields

We think short term interest rates are going to fall. Probably two more fed rate cuts this year, two more rate cuts next year. The short end of the yield curve is falling while the long end is steady or rising, leading to a steepening curve and signaling cautious downtrend in yields over medium term.

metals

Gold prices climbed to about $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever; metals including copper massively outperformed; central banks diversifying into gold; gold is an excellent diversifier and safe haven asset.