dxy

Dollar strengthening again today as Euro heads toward 116, but with some risk of squeeze given consensus positioning. Dollar rally is under test and probably short lived given macro dynamics.

metals

American rare earth miners up 20-25%, critical metals also strongly up amid concerns over China's export controls. Market expects continued geopolitical tensions over rare earths boosting US miner stocks.

ndx

Nasdaq 100 futures are rebounding strongly after Friday's 3.5% decline, with tech stocks like Nvidia leading gains. Investors are buying the dip in tech stocks amidst mixed market sentiment.

yields

We saw a 10 basis point decline across the yield curve on Friday. The bond market is closed today but the test comes when it reopens. Politics and trade talks are influencing yields now. Market caution due to geopolitical risk and trade tensions, with uncertainty about whether the recent decline in yields will persist.

ndx

We think technology is one of the best places to be with the best earnings growth in the world today. The earnings revisions for technology have been the best, and technology profits are driving stocks here. Earnings growth in technology, especially in the US, is strong and is the main driver of equity performance in the short term.

metals

gold is going up due to inflation risks still here, trade war coming back, Chinese households buying significant amounts of gold via ETFs, and central banks divesting from US treasuries and buying gold instead Strong demand for gold is driven by persistent inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and price-insensitive buyers such as Chinese households and central banks increasing allocations to gold.

yields

there's more lift in inflation coming because of tariffs, lifting inflation because of the weaker dollar, if inflation is going up and we now start cutting too much, that of course raises the risk that the fed should not be talking about rate cuts, they should maybe even talk about rate hikes The market expects rate cuts from the dot plot, but the interviewee explicitly warns that inflation risks remain elevated due to tariffs and a weaker dollar, which could force the Fed to keep yields elevated or higher.

metals

Mark stated that gold was up 50% in the last year and is a great hedge against global and domestic risks, showing bullishness on metals over a medium term.

ndx

Mark mentioned concern that AI and tech stocks could revisit lows like in March if the China-US tensions continue, indicating a cautious down outlook for tech in the short term.

ndx

I expect one more move higher into year end with a target around 7000 for year-end 2025.

wti

Oil is at $59 and change; gasoline futures have made new lows. Lower oil prices are part of the stimulus, but the question is how stocks respond to that.

yields

The big question is rates. Our story is to watch for a low level where bond yields actually start to signal that the economy may be weakening in a big way. 3.85% on ten-year yields was the low in April. Below 3.85%, the messaging on the economy is worrying into 2026.

metals

Bank of America upgraded their forecast on gold and silver price projecting significant increases in 2026, with gold possibly reaching $5,000 per ounce and silver $65 per ounce. Investment demand for gold increased 14% YOY contributing to price growth. Steep price forecasts and growing investment demand reflect an expectation of a strong upward trend in metals over the medium to long term.

ndx

Nvidia is up 2.8% right now following a price target hike; AMD is up 2.4% following a price target hike. Price target hikes and stock price increases for key Nasdaq-related semiconductor companies indicate positive short-term sentiment for the Nasdaq 100.

wti

But right now, it's a supply driven market and OPEC plus is increasing supply to the market. That's weighing on futures. Supply increases from OPEC+ and US production, combined with concerns about demand due to EV popularity, are weighing on crude oil prices under $60 a barrel.

metals

Having that strategic allocation to your underlying portfolio where strategic metals and rare earth miners come to dominance is a particular part of the portfolio that you should pay more attention to. China maintains dominance in rare earth metals supply despite trade tensions, showing resilience and signaling that metals markets may rise sharply in the short term as strategic metals gain importance in portfolios.

ndx

I think we're going to continue to see this push through in earnings and it moves forward not only for this year but in the next year. So we've got about a 10 to 12% on an annualized basis increase in earnings. and if we see that then we're gonna see a market that's gonna be a double digital any any Earnings growth beating expectations and continued annualized earnings increases around 10-12% support a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Nasdaq100 in the short term.

yields

I want to move towards cutting rates, but you're not going to do it aggressively and fast in case you make a big mistake; the market's priced in for sequential cuts through the end of the year; cautious enough for you going by quarter point.

wti

I mean, big move today in oil. I think it's reflecting a view in the market that this peace deal means that people can de-risk the Middle East, de-risk geopolitical turmoil for oil.

metals

Investors stampeding into gold, silver, and Bitcoin as part of the debasement trade; silver newly entering discussion with strong momentum; expectation of weakening US dollar supports metals. Amid economic uncertainty, currency debasement concerns drive strong inflows into precious metals in the short term as hedges.

yields

The Fed is likely to cut once more this year, possibly fewer cuts in December depending on incoming data, with risk management guiding policy given the lack of government data. The Fed is cautious, reactive to limited data, focused on labor market deterioration to decide on rate cuts; uncertainty and data dependency imply a cautious downward pressure on yields over the medium term.

wti

Absolutely. They should be buying and they should be buying it into the SPR so that we have it for the next time. There's a crisis. Look the one thing we know about all markets is whenever it's going down really low, it's going to come back up at some point at some day. Oil demand remains high, price around $60 per barrel limits Arab states' ability to fund Gaza reconstruction, so buying back SPR supplies and expecting prices to rebound is logical.

ndx

Any dip in tech is met with buying. Investors gravitate back towards tech. Staying with profitable tech companies is key. Despite concerns, earnings growth is primarily in tech, so investors return to tech sector, indicating cautious upward direction in short term.

metals

I think stablecoins, including tether, maybe one of the largest buyers of gold today. That corresponds with gold essentially going up every day and gold going up to a new high. Gold’s rally is being driven by demand tied to stablecoins like Tether, which need to back gold holdings, thus supporting prices despite broader market conditions.

ndx

I think the sell off Friday is giving us a bit of a gift because that surge in the VIX 32% rise is the 39th highest ever one day surge, and the one month median return is almost 3% of the 38 other instances. So I think the S&P could add 200 points between today and mid November. Positive tailwinds include US dominance in AI and blockchain initiatives, valuations like Nvidia being cheaper on a forward PE basis than traditional retailers, and interest rates coming down acting as an elixir for stocks. Despite recent volatility, a lot of good news is not yet priced in and investors remain reluctant on the sidelines.

dxy

The dollar has its best week in about a year, up about 1.5%. Dollar rebound driven by weakness in euro and yen.

metals

Gold up about 50% year to date. Central banks like China and India are buying gold aggressively, showing strong demand which is driving prices higher.

wti

Oil prices are easing after the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

yields

once you have a formal announcement of what the new target would be, we potentially would see further declines in the bond yield

metals

Gold got another bid. The yellow metal has been on a record tear. It moved about 1% higher as well. Increased market uncertainty and flight to safety typically boost precious metals prices such as gold in the short term.

ndx

I think the narrative of this tariff volatility and uncertainty is bad news for the whole space. You will bring back a lot more volatility into the markets. I think there will be concerns on both sides. Trade tensions and tariff-related volatility contribute to significant downward pressure and increased volatility on equity markets like the Nasdaq100.

yields

Traders really piling into treasuries as you say. Gold got another bid. Tariff volatility and uncertainty leads to increased market concerns driving investors to safer assets like treasuries, pushing yields sharply down in the short term.

ndx

We're down 800 points on the NASDAQ 3.5%; this is a sea of red out there and uncertainty is causing a big downturn today. The interviewee highlights current sharp declines and attributes it to uncertainty, and indicates this is likely a near-term pullback associated with geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty, while maintaining a strong long-term macro view.

dxy

Now that the U.S. is not the only source of uncertainty, it becomes a strong dollar story because the US dollar retrace that eight, 9% decline... the dollar had gotten so rich over the last 13 years and had gotten to a point nine months ago where it was probably a level of unsustainability in its valuation.

yields

my view on the Fed is that there is a sufficient reason to believe that interest rate policy in the US right now is not overly restrictive... If they do cut, it will be a very reluctant cut... the cut was only intended to strike a balance between the two mandates... does not imply a long and profound series of rate cuts.

metals

central banks increasing gold holdings; debasement trade and diversification driving metals; copper up nearly 25% year to date; supply disruptions in major mines; strong demand from AI, defense, and electrification creating a perfect storm; market deficit and potential for more upside.

wti

crude has been under pressure for over a year; large supply glut has not impacted prices; physical markets remain tight; refining margins near all-time highs; oil inventories unlikely to increase as economics favor burning, not storing oil.

yields

Fed Governor Michael Barr emphasized a cautious approach to adjusting policy, highlighting uncertainty and risks to price stability. The cautious stance indicates no clear directional bias on yields but a careful monitoring of inflation, labor market softness, and economic data suggests yields may not move sharply in either direction in the near to medium term.

metals

Gold is rising as part of a flight to safety amidst market volatility. Investors are seeking safe haven assets like gold amid uncertainty from tariffs and government shutdown impacts.

metals

Gold rally started in 2022 with central banks buying gold, Fed cutting rates, and investors piling in, all supporting gold's strong price gains.

metals

The movement in gold highlights how much China has diversified away from the US; gold backing their currency is a strategic move. China's increased gold holdings and diversification suggest strong upward pressure on metals prices in the short term.

metals

silver has been setting a record setting rally here this year and it's taking out the gold market here and there are a number of reasons for this further outperformance and expectations for further outperformance in the silver market

wti

crude oil market starting to break and look like it could possibly on the front month break below that $60 mark here

metals

I’m still optimistic on gold. My price target is $4,000 an ounce and next year my target is $5,500 for gold based on central bank buying activity and diversification across portfolios.

metals

We upgrade our silver forecast to $55 an ounce and said as we get up to 4000, we think silver is going to really start to outperform. And I think we're just seeing the early signs of that. Silver is a growth commodity with strong industrial and investor demand, supportive of price increases over the next weeks.

ndx

WE'RE LOOKING FOR, SAIRA, ABOUT 7%, 8% IN THE THIRD QUARTER... COMPANIES CAN BEAT EARNINGS AGAIN, PROBABLY PRINT IN THE LOW DOUBLE DIGITS... THE LEADER IS GOING TO BE TECH STOCKS... TECH HAS BEEN THE DRIVER OF U.S. EQUITIES FOR MANY YEARS NOW... THE ODDS ARE IN YOUR FAVOR FOR THIS RALLY TO CONTINUE

ndx

Year to date the sector's only up high teens... roughly in line with the Nasdaq and a little bit ahead of the S&P... low valuations and improving fundamentals set up well for the next cycle.

dxy

The transcript states the dollar is "set for its best week in almost a year” and is performing strongly, described as an "anti-consensus trade" with strength for the greenback ongoing.

ndx

I expect AI to continue leading the market with spending and token usage doubling every couple of months. Big tech AI leaders including Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle will continue leading the market.

metals

gold and silver prices are at record levels and platinum and plating prices have risen very sharply; our outlook both on a short-term and on a long-term basis is that prices will continue to rise; prices might have short-term pullbacks but expected to be shallow

yields

We think short term interest rates are going to fall. Probably two more fed rate cuts this year, two more rate cuts next year. The short end of the yield curve is falling while the long end is steady or rising, leading to a steepening curve and signaling cautious downtrend in yields over medium term.

dxy

"You're seeing the dollar lower. Why. Well the Japanese yen is 4/10 of a percent higher this morning. That's creating the lower dollar."

yields

"Look at the yields now down below 4.1%. Why. Well Christopher Waller made some comments today that he thinks job growth has been negative for the last few months."

metals

I think people are looking for an alternative and getting a little too greedy at 4000. Historically, when gold gets this stretched, you should be cautious rather than greedy.

dxy

Look at the dollar. It's pretty amazing actually. Yes, it got hit, but it's still sitting around 99. It settled last week at like 97.75. So it's up substantially on the week. I think that's a positive sign.

yields

We're on pace now to close about a three week low in tens... we're down close to ten basis points... on the week we're only down about 7 or 8 basis points... markets are believing this has a half life and is pretty short.

metals

The interviewee discusses how gold is rising sharply, driven by momentum, safe haven demand, and concerns around currency and debt, reflecting a strong upward move in metals.

metals

Gold is having its moment. More central banks globally are buying it. The dollar has been softening. There is this overhang of fiscal debt in the US that also supports the gold trade.

yields

we are underweight in our bond portfolios... we don't think any of the options that the government with President Macron had today will be positive on French rates so we are underweight in our bond portfolios.