Torsten Slok discusses the Fed's hawkish dot plot (9 of 18 dots signaling a hike this year) and the dramatic drop in oil prices from $120 to below $80 in two months, which has significant disinflationary implications. He argues this justifies Kevin Warsh's reluctance to give forward guidance, as conditions change rapidly. On AI and labor, he sees a net positive effect on employment and productivity over the next 18 months, as cheaper technology enables record new business formations that outweigh displacement risks.

George Gatch says public markets are not dead, with tremendous enthusiasm around technology, space, and AI. He warns about concentration risk in US markets (top 10 S&P names = 40% of market, US = 60% of global). He recommends rebalancing into fixed income (yields at 4.4-6% with half the duration) and international/emerging markets. He sees opportunity in private credit given disruption in wealth management funds, and is building private credit capabilities within public market teams.

Bob Michele, CIO at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, discusses the hawkish surprise from new Fed Chair Warsh, who shifted to nine officials expecting a rate hike and raised inflation forecasts. Michele criticizes rolling back transparency, expects more volatility, but notes the bond market has already repriced into a 4.25%-4.625% trading range. He sees every meeting as live, inflation peaking in May, and corporate credit as attractive.

Erik Wytenus is positive on global equities, citing a sound economy and strong earnings growth led by the US. He sees the AI theme expanding into European enablers (power, data centers, industrials). He views the Fed's hawkish pivot under Kevin Warsh as a healthy restoration of credibility, which is bullish for the dollar but negative for precious metals. He advises looking through geopolitical noise and focusing on long-term private sector trends.

Bob Michael says the Fed's hawkish tilt is a real shot across the bow; half the committee expects rate hikes this year, making a hike possible given inflationary pressures from AI spending and the Iran war.

Kelsey Berro (JPMorgan AM) analyzes the Fed's hawkish hold and press conference. Key takeaway: the bond market's reaction (front-end yields up, long-end down) signals the Fed retains inflation-fighting credibility. She sees a potential peak in inflation (May) and a moderating labor market, reducing the need for further hikes. She recommends investing in fixed income for carry at current 5-6% yields, viewing the range as a sweet spot for demand, without needing to predict direction.

Ed Yardeni interprets Kevin Warsh's first FOMC statement as a hawkish surprise, emphasizing price stability and a 2% commitment. He argues the Fed has shifted to a tightening bias, sees bond yields as normalized at 4.5%, and believes modest rate hikes would not derail the resilient economy or the 'Roaring Twenties' equity narrative.

Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses the seasonal pattern in precious metals, expecting gold and silver to consolidate in a volatile sideways pattern over the summer before rising after August. He views the current dip as a buying opportunity for intermediate-term investors. Platinum and palladium are weaker due to industrial demand concerns. Central banks act as value buyers, not price supporters, and a large contango indicates ample physical supply.

Isa Aoshi discusses the rotation from tech to cyclicals driven by the oil price collapse. He sees more upside in tech, particularly in AI data center supply chains shifting to lower-cost solutions like ASICs. Japan's factory automation sector is recovering. On China, he likes the semiconductor supply chain due to localization push. The BOJ should keep hiking as it's normalization, not inflation getting out of hand.

Edward Yardeni argues the bull market is driven by 'FEMO' (Fabulous Earnings Momentum), not speculative FOMO. He sees the economy as resilient due to retiring baby boomers spending $89 trillion in assets, large fiscal deficits, and a productive AI capex boom. He reaffirms his S&P 500 target of 8,250 by end of 2025 and 10,000 by 2029, calling it a 'Roaring 2020s' scenario.

Bob Michele expects the Fed to hold rates and remove the easing bias. He sees the economy in good shape, not an environment for rate cuts. He believes Warsh will disappoint the president by not cutting, and that the market would be equally surprised by a hawkish or dovish tilt. He views the bond market as having already repriced and sees it in good shape.

Hugh Kimber from JPMorgan AM expects the Fed to stay on hold through the year, with Warsh likely to say very little and avoid forward guidance. He sees value in European stocks, particularly consumer cyclicals and banks, as the energy shock fades. He believes the broadening out of markets strengthens the case for regional diversification away from US tech.

Barry expects the Fed to lose its easing bias at the upcoming meeting, with a rate hike possible early next year. The front end of the curve has repriced sharply, but the long end has not fully repriced to reflect the more hawkish direction. He sees the intermediate sector of the US curve as 20-25 bps too low. Money market fund AUM is likely to remain sticky, as it typically takes the Fed cutting below 2% to see money flow out. He also notes that high-grade corporate debt is becoming a substitute for Treasuries as pension funds are well-funded.

Ed Yardeni reaffirms his 'Roaring 20s' thesis, predicting S&P 500 at 8,250 by end of year and 10,000 by end of decade. He attributes market resilience to strong earnings, a resilient economy, baby boomer spending, and AI capex. He prefers a 'melt-up' based on earnings momentum (FEMO) over valuation multiples (FOMO).

Risk-on sentiment from avoided worst-case oil disruption. Oil to stay above $80 for a while. Market leadership should broaden from AI/tech to cyclicals (banks, industrials, consumer discretionary). Fed likely on hold; inflation expectations haven't risen. China's AI/semiconductor policy is a sector-level catalyst despite index underperformance.

Luke Gromen discusses a potential Fed playbook of cutting short rates, selling long bonds, and deregulating banks to steepen the curve and absorb Treasury supply, effectively QE-through-banks. He sees gold/oil ratio suggesting failure of non-dollar oil war, expects eventual inflationary boom, and advises watching weaker dollar, higher stocks, lower 10y yields, higher gold and Bitcoin as confirmation. He believes stocks will rise in dollar terms but fall in gold terms over time.

May PCE likely represents a local peak for inflation. Falling energy prices (Strait of Hormuz reopening) and fading tariff pass-through should drive disinflation from June onward. The Fed will stay on hold but a cut is possible next year if the labor market softens. Inflation dynamics are more structural than cyclical.

Nobody can know AI stock valuations; investors should limit AI exposure and focus on inputs (semis, memory). Iran deal could push oil to $70, creating a tailwind for broadening equity markets and allowing central banks to cut. Europe is undervalued and pessimism is overdone. UK gilts already price in political uncertainty, presenting opportunity.

Kelsey Berro expects the Fed to stay on hold and remove the easing bias, with no dissenters. Core inflation stickiness is from supply shocks (energy, tariffs), not demand; wages and shelter are moderating. The bond rally is muted due to Fed event risk. If the Fed holds and the MOU deal holds, the market could rally this week. The balance sheet is about as small as it can be relative to GDP.

The Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh has restored inflation-fighting credibility, signaling a regime shift to higher US real yields. This is bullish for the dollar, bearish for precious metals (gold/silver), and tightens global financial conditions. Low liquidity and geopolitical risks add near-term caution.

Torsten Slok discusses the potential for a major shift in Fed communication under new Chair Kevin Warsh, including possible removal of forward guidance and the dot plot. He argues this would effectively tighten policy even without rate hikes. While lower energy prices help, persistent core inflation and a strong labor market (AI boom, consumer spending) argue for a more hawkish stance. The key challenge is Warsh building consensus among FOMC members.

Sonali Punhani, UK economist at BofA, states that whoever becomes PM faces a very tight fiscal landscape with limited headroom (already eroded by higher yields). The BOE is likely to delay or reduce its expected rate hikes due to a weaker economy and a less prolonged energy shock. She argues the BOE may 'look through' inflation if second-round effects are contained, even if the Fed and ECB are hawkish.

Torsten Slok expects Kevin Warsh to simplify Fed communication, possibly removing forward guidance and dot plot, which could be implicitly hawkish. He notes sticky inflation (3% core CPI) and strong economy (AI boom, IRA tailwinds, tariffs) argue against easing. Iran deal helps via lower energy prices but doesn't solve underlying inflation.

Mark Haefele (UBS CIO) sees the Fed staying on hold, which is positive for equities. AI capex is approaching $1tn by 2028 with no signs of abatement, supporting an S&P 500 target of 8200 by mid-2026. The interim US-Iran deal has eased oil risk, and oil can fall further as the Strait of Hormuz reopens. He warns of high equity concentration in AI names and urges diversification into North Asia and other regions.

David Bower (JPMorgan ECM) says the SpaceX IPO is a 'generational' opportunity and signals a healthy IPO market driven by fundamental reindustrialization and AI themes, not just low rates. He sees a very active summer for ECM across sectors, not just mega-cap tech, and notes that valuations are not stretched like 2021. He is confident the market has capacity for more large deals.

Kay Haigh views the Fed meeting as unambiguously hawkish, prioritizing inflation and making policy data-dependent. She expects much more volatility in the 2-year sector going forward, but potentially less at the long end if the Fed's focus on inflation is credible. The task forces could lead to less long-end volatility, making duration more attractive.

Iran-US deal reduces worst-case oil disruption risk, enabling risk-on sentiment and potential rotation beyond AI/tech into cyclicals like financials and industrials. Tech enthusiasm high but valuations stretched; investors rotating from AI model companies to semiconductors. Korea and Taiwan fundamentals still robust with single-digit P/E ratios.

Vice President Vance argues the U.S.-Iran MOU is a win-win: Iran's nuclear program is destroyed, the Strait of Hormuz is open, oil prices are falling, and gas is below $4. Iran gets no benefits unless it verifiably changes behavior. The U.S. retains full leverage. He criticizes Israeli cabinet members attacking the deal, defends the administration's position, and notes Gulf Arab allies support the framework.

Australian headline CPI expected to fall from 4.2% to 4.0% in May, but underlying (trim mean) remains sticky at 3.3-3.4%, above RBA's 2-3% band. RBA on hold but talking tough. Market has dialed back rate hike expectations due to reopening of Strait of Hormuz and weakening domestic data (labor market, economic surprise index). Household spending faces headwinds from negative wealth effect in Sydney/Melbourne housing.

Bank of America India CEO Vikram Sahu says India is not completely out of the woods despite the US-Iran peace deal. Valuations have corrected from two standard deviations above historical averages to in line, but at 20-21 times, India is not cheap enough yet. Corporate earnings have still not bottomed out. However, investor interest remains strong—30% more investors attended BofA's India conference. The government's reform momentum (more bilateral trade deals in 6 months than in prior 10 years) is a key positive. AI's impact on IT services remains the big unanswered question.