Warsh's first FOMC meeting likely balanced, not hawkish. Oil at 75-76 helps inflation. Market broadening: Russell 2000, S&P Equal Weight, Dow at all-time highs. AI infrastructure still driving industrials and tech, but single-stock volatility is extreme (record spread vs VIX). Speculation in names like SpaceX remains high.

Fed on hold for rest of year. Warsh may change communication strategy (dots plot, press conferences). Longer-term yields have a floor due to sticky inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, higher term premium, and resilient consumer (retail sales beat). Higher gas prices not pinching consumer yet.