Fed on hold for rest of year. Warsh may change communication strategy (dots plot, press conferences). Longer-term yields have a floor due to sticky inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, higher term premium, and resilient consumer (retail sales beat). Higher gas prices not pinching consumer yet.

explicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Charles Schwab 7.8
Asset Manager $890.00B
Cooper Howard 7.0
6/17/2026 7:00:30 PM
yields
There's probably a floor on how much lower that they can go... supportive of higher longer-term yields or at least a floor
93 calls
+2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
6/4/2026 4:40:40 PM short term down 5 days later +0.13% -0.13%
6/3/2026 7:30:39 PM short term up 5 days later +1.14% +1.14%
6/2/2026 6:00:01 PM short term up 5 days later +1.36% +1.36%
6/1/2026 3:30:31 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +2.18% +1.09%
5/26/2026 4:30:11 PM short term down 5 days later -0.13% +0.13%
5/21/2026 7:00:03 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.08% -1.04%
5/21/2026 3:30:57 PM short term down 5 days later -1.69% +1.69%
5/20/2026 6:00:24 PM short term up 5 days later -2.03% -2.03%
5/20/2026 4:30:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.03% +1.01%
5/20/2026 1:00:35 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -2.03% -3.04%
5/19/2026 7:00:05 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -0.96% -1.44%
5/19/2026 5:39:53 PM medium term down 20 days later -0.96% +0.96%
5/18/2026 3:30:42 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.46% -1.23%
5/14/2026 7:01:22 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.50% -0.25%
5/14/2026 3:30:29 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.50% -0.25%
5/13/2026 6:00:58 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +4.62% +6.93%
5/13/2026 4:07:44 PM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/12/2026 6:01:10 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +3.17% +4.75%
5/12/2026 4:00:57 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.58% +0.29%
5/11/2026 7:00:43 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/6/2026 7:01:28 PM short term up 5 days later +1.62% +1.62%
5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM short term down 7 days later -0.81% +0.81%
4/29/2026 10:30:10 PM short term up 5 days later +0.59% +0.59%
4/17/2026 7:00:31 PM medium term up 21 days later +3.76% +3.76%
4/10/2026 7:01:10 PM medium term up 21 days later +3.47% +3.47%
4/8/2026 7:30:12 PM short term down 5 days later -0.86% +0.86%
3/27/2026 10:22:16 PM short term sharp up 7 days later -0.16% -0.24%
3/27/2026 6:00:24 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -0.16% -0.08%
3/26/2026 6:15:02 PM short term up 5 days later -2.73% -2.73%
3/24/2026 3:30:35 PM short term cautious up 5 days later +0.32% +0.16%
3/23/2026 6:00:33 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.16% -1.08%
3/20/2026 4:35:56 PM medium term up 21 days later -0.85% -0.85%
3/17/2026 6:01:27 PM short term down 5 days later +1.76% -1.76%
3/16/2026 6:01:06 PM short term up 6 days later +3.14% +3.14%
2/23/2026 7:00:42 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +4.64% +2.32%
2/18/2026 7:00:31 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/11/2026 7:35:50 PM short term up 5 days later -1.27% -1.27%
2/11/2026 4:30:22 PM short term up 5 days later -1.27% -1.27%
1/30/2026 7:01:03 PM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/23/2026 8:46:35 PM long term cautious up 60 days later +5.39% +2.69%
1/20/2026 7:01:32 PM short term up 5 days later -0.94% -0.94%
1/7/2026 6:30:03 PM long term cautious up 60 days later -1.12% -0.56%
12/31/2025 5:47:14 PM short term up 5 days later -1.17% -1.17%
12/23/2025 5:54:44 PM short term up 5 days later -0.48% -0.48%
12/17/2025 7:00:01 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.53% +0.27%
12/15/2025 6:00:31 PM short term down 6 days later +0.48% -0.48%
12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.03% +0.51%
12/5/2025 8:31:08 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -1.34% -0.67%
12/1/2025 7:17:24 PM medium term up 20 days later +2.03% +2.03%
11/21/2025 6:00:06 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +1.44% -0.72%
11/14/2025 6:01:14 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -2.30% -1.15%
11/11/2025 1:00:57 AM short term up 5 days later +1.67% +1.67%
11/5/2025 11:14:15 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.66% +0.99%
11/5/2025 6:00:18 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.32% -1.16%
10/31/2025 5:00:59 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.10% -0.05%
10/29/2025 5:30:29 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.10% +0.05%
10/27/2025 5:01:01 PM short term up 6 days later +3.09% +3.09%
10/24/2025 8:41:31 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.73% -1.36%
10/24/2025 5:33:04 PM short term up 7 days later +2.73% +2.73%
10/23/2025 7:03:38 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.53% -0.76%
10/21/2025 6:30:23 PM short term down 5 days later +1.11% -1.11%
10/20/2025 6:30:14 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.86% -0.43%
10/16/2025 10:47:56 PM short term down 5 days later -1.35% +1.35%
10/14/2025 6:01:25 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.48% -0.74%
10/14/2025 5:34:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.48% +0.74%
9/30/2025 5:42:26 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/29/2025 6:30:09 PM short term cautious up 6 days later +0.34% +0.17%
9/26/2025 6:27:34 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/22/2025 6:00:19 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/18/2025 5:45:03 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.22% -0.11%
9/17/2025 6:01:49 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/16/2025 11:52:11 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.64% -0.82%
9/15/2025 10:13:32 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +3.38% -1.69%
9/15/2025 6:00:38 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +2.91% -1.45%
9/12/2025 11:30:07 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.70% -1.35%
9/10/2025 11:30:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/5/2025 11:30:10 PM short term sharp down 7 days later -0.30% +0.44%
9/3/2025 11:30:04 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.69% +0.35%
9/2/2025 8:01:17 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -3.92% +1.96%
8/29/2025 11:22:31 PM medium term down 20 days later -3.13% +3.13%
8/28/2025 11:34:09 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.91% +1.45%
8/25/2025 11:30:06 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.26% +2.63%
8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.45% -0.22%
8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.45% -0.22%
8/22/2025 11:30:14 PM short term down 8 days later +0.05% -0.05%
8/21/2025 6:30:30 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.52% -0.26%
8/13/2025 11:30:57 PM short term down 5 days later +0.21% -0.21%
8/8/2025 11:30:04 PM long term cautious down 60 days later -5.20% +2.60%
8/7/2025 11:35:19 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
7/30/2025 1:54:24 AM short term up 5 days later -3.76% -3.76%
7/21/2025 11:30:17 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.45% +0.73%
7/16/2025 11:30:00 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.85% -1.42%
Show all 93 yields results

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