Stocks rally as US-Iran sign interim deal, oil prices drop

Anastasia Amoroso (Partners Group) is bullish on US equities, citing resilient consumer, strong earnings, and accelerating CapEx (AI/hyperscalers). She sees AI broadening beyond Nvidia into semiconductors, data centers, and agentic AI. She prefers US over Europe due to weak European growth and policy, and selectively likes EM tied to AI supply chains (e.g., Asia) and fintech (e.g., Brazil). She views the Fed's hawkish tone as lacking forward guidance, leaving room for change. Oil's decline from $120 to ~$75 is a positive for risk assets.

implicit

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Metals

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data centers up

Partners Group 8.0
Private Equity $109.00B
Anastasia Amoroso 9.5

Stocks rally as US-Iran sign interim deal, oil prices drop

Oil; US equities

dxy

She emphasizes US economic exceptionalism vs. weak Europe, which supports USD strength. European investors continue to buy US assets.

ndx

She is bullish on AI and tech broadly (semiconductors, data centers, agentic AI), which are heavily weighted in NDX. She sees the AI trade broadening and requiring more compute, supporting tech equities.

rut

She emphasizes US economic strength (consumer, earnings, CapEx) which benefits small caps, but her focus is on large-cap tech and AI, so the signal is cautious.

wti

It's been a stunning turnaround to the price of oil... from 120 to now... the forward strip pricing in $75 average for the back half of the year.

yields

She says the Fed's hawkish tone is not forward guidance and 'a lot is going to change in the next few months,' implying yields may not rise further and could stabilize.

Anastasia Amoroso

The decline in oil from $120 to ~$75 forward strip is a much better backdrop for risk assets, reducing recession risk.

We had large inventory buffers (200 days of net imports) and the conflict was not expected to drag on for years, which prevented a recession.
Investors are resetting focus after oil's decline; what should they focus on now—earnings or the Fed?

Tom
Anastasia Amoroso

Focus on the strength of economic activity: resilient consumer, strong earnings, and accelerating CapEx (fixed asset investment) driven by hyperscalers. Stay in markets.

The Fed's hawkish tone is not forward guidance; much can change in the next few months. The market misinterpreted it as a rate hike signal.
The market is trying to figure out how to play AI beyond Nvidia.

Tom
Anastasia Amoroso

AI's TAM has expanded beyond GPUs to CPUs and memory chips, broadening the trade. The next phase is agentic AI and workflow automation, requiring more compute and data center buildout.

We have portfolio companies in data centers seeing strong demand for compute capacity.
Do European investors still want to buy American after the political backdrop?

Paul
Anastasia Amoroso

Yes, European investors continue to look to the US for its strong economic backdrop, not its politics. Europe has depressed consumer confidence, sluggish spending, and no CapEx momentum.

The US has checked all the boxes: strong consumer, earnings, CapEx, and corporate tax support.
What about emerging markets, which have done well recently?

Tom
Anastasia Amoroso

Selectively like EM tied to AI supply chains (Asia manufactures 60-70% of AI infrastructure) and thematic plays like fintech in Brazil.

Not all EM is attractive; focus on themes enabling the tech trade.

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