Erik Wytenus is positive on global equities, citing a sound economy and strong earnings growth led by the US. He sees the AI theme expanding into European enablers (power, data centers, industrials). He views the Fed's hawkish pivot under Kevin Warsh as a healthy restoration of credibility, which is bullish for the dollar but negative for precious metals. He advises looking through geopolitical noise and focusing on long-term private sector trends.

Sonali Punhani, UK economist at BofA, states that whoever becomes PM faces a very tight fiscal landscape with limited headroom (already eroded by higher yields). The BOE is likely to delay or reduce its expected rate hikes due to a weaker economy and a less prolonged energy shock. She argues the BOE may 'look through' inflation if second-round effects are contained, even if the Fed and ECB are hawkish.

Ella Gude, head of fixed income at BNY, argues that the removal of the extreme tail risk of an oil spike allows European bonds to take a breather and frees the ECB from its hawkish stance. She notes the Burnham win was largely priced into gilts. On FX, she sees the dollar in a rebound environment, keeping GBP rangebound near the bottom of its yearly range, while the yen remains under pressure as the BOJ is behind the curve.

David Zahn expects more volatility in gilt yields due to the UK leadership uncertainty. He sees limited fiscal room for maneuver without tax hikes or spending cuts. He expects the BOE to do nothing for the rest of the year. On Scottish 'kilts', he would require a 50-60bps spread over gilts to buy, and warns that any hint of an independence referendum would cause spreads to blow out significantly.

Ruth David analyzes Andy Burnham's decisive by-election win, which paves the way for a Labour leadership challenge against PM Starmer. She notes high political uncertainty, a divided Labour party, and that Burnham's economic team includes city-friendly advisors, but his policy mix (fiscal rules, nationalization, wealth tax) remains unclear. Markets face a period of limbo until the timing and direction of the next government are known.