Ella Gude, head of fixed income at BNY, argues that the removal of the extreme tail risk of an oil spike allows European bonds to take a breather and frees the ECB from its hawkish stance. She notes the Burnham win was largely priced into gilts. On FX, she sees the dollar in a rebound environment, keeping GBP rangebound near the bottom of its yearly range, while the yen remains under pressure as the BOJ is behind the curve.
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Ella Gude 8.5
Wealth Manager $2000.00B
Ella Gude 8.5
6/19/2026 1:20:46 PM
dxy
We are in a bit of a dollar rebound environment.
| 5/27/2026 2:42:44 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.08% | -0.54% |
rut
We would probably expect more range bound...we are trading closer to the bottom end of the range for sterling for this year.
yields
I think there's less need for the ECB to hike and therefore bonds in Europe perhaps can take a breather now.
| 5/27/2026 2:42:44 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.18% | +0.09% |
| 5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.09% | +2.09% |
| 4/13/2026 2:13:11 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.46% | +4.46% |
| 3/18/2026 7:40:14 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +2.59% | +2.59% |
| 12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.58% | +0.29% |
| 11/28/2025 5:12:01 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +1.78% | -0.89% |
| 11/7/2025 7:00:46 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -0.34% | +0.17% |
| 10/15/2025 2:04:39 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -0.33% | +0.49% |
| 8/23/2025 12:19:15 AM | short term cautious down | 8 days later | +0.05% | -0.02% |
| 8/14/2025 6:40:18 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.74% | +0.37% |
