I think that he was somewhat constrained in signaling easing at the September meeting, because there is some data between now and then. And he also wanted to bring along his more hawkish colleagues by essentially saying, yes, it will be data dependent. Don't worry about it. As for the hawkish aspect of the cut in September, they also put out their quarterly summary of economic projection, the dot plot. And so probably they'll couple that quarter point cut with the of the funds rate with a projection that suggests it's only pretty much shallow declines thereafter into 2026.
10 calls
no reliable edge (random outcomes)