Oil Rises Back Above $100/Barrel as Trump Threatens to Blockade Hormuz | Bloomberg Brief 4/13/2026

Yields

NDX

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Oil

Metals

USD

BNY Investments 6.9
Wealth Manager $2000.00B
Ella Gude 9.0

Oil Rises Back Above $100/Barrel as Trump Threatens to Blockade Hormuz | Bloomberg Brief 4/13/2026

WTI

wti

Her entire thesis is built on a 'bullish structural environment for commodities, including oil' driving inflation and yields. She references spot oil price action reflecting fears and the building pressure from Middle East supply disruption. The directional call on oil is implicit but foundational to her macro view.

yields

higher energy and higher input costs lead to higher inflation. So, ergo's the simple conclusion that yields should move up... Our view has been that we are in a more bullish structural environment for commodities, including oil. And so we believe the press for yields actually does remain on the upside... in the next three to six months, we will see more pressure build up to that effect. And I think that means for yields, the path is higher.

10 calls

+5

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

3/18/2026 7:40:14 PM	short term up	5 days later	+2.59%	+2.59%
12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.58%	+0.29%
11/28/2025 5:12:01 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+1.78%	-0.89%
11/7/2025 7:00:46 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-0.34%	+0.17%
10/15/2025 2:04:39 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	-0.33%	+0.49%
8/23/2025 12:19:15 AM	short term cautious down	8 days later	+0.05%	-0.02%
8/14/2025 6:40:18 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.74%	+0.37%

Show all 7 yields results

Asks how Middle East tensions and U.S. blockade threat impact yields, which are rising.

Matt Miller
Ella Gude

Bonds don't like inflation; higher energy/input costs lead to higher inflation, so yields should move up. Our view is this is structural - we are in a more bullish structural environment for commodities including oil, so pressure on yields remains on the upside.
Asks for a 6-12 month forecast on the 10-year yield.

Matt Miller
Ella Gude

Avoids point forecasts but looks at asymmetries. Break-evens aren't reflecting the risks we're talking about; Middle East highlights that risk. Pressure remains in play; we'll see it in inflation data. In next 3-6 months, more pressure builds, meaning the path for yields is higher. Technical levels broken in global rates markets.
Notes stocks near highs despite war and oil doubling, and that futures/yields may not reflect physical market pain or reality. Asks why financial instruments underestimate the pain.

Matt Miller
Ella Gude

Markets have become much more short-term in nature. There is hope embedded that the conflict will be resolved. Every day of closure builds up input cost pressures, meaning we are building up risks not priced correctly. The playbook: sell rallies in equities and in core rates.
Asks how much longer before it becomes a real concern for asset prices, given we're nearing two months of Strait of Hormuz blockage.

Matt Miller
Ella Gude

We are there. Over the next fortnight, risks become much more material. Once technical elements (optionality, etc.) are behind us, the next couple of weeks are a critical window. If no constructive resolution, fears will be reflected more clearly in all asset markets, as seen in spot oil.
Asks if credit spreads will start widening, given they've been tight despite problems.

Matt Miller
Ella Gude

Higher macro risks and input costs hurt corporations and consumers, which matters for credit. These macro risks are a bigger deal for credit spreads than private credit issues. You're not getting enough premium in spreads. Historical episodes show poor returns after trading at these spread levels. One positive: money flowing from private credit is supporting public credit technically, but the macro backdrop is not supportive for credit right now.

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