I think the market will just continue the assumptions from recent trends which is a no-fire or no-hire economy. It is a sign that the economy overall needs support. That is why the base case is for further easing. Given where positioning is, they need a bit more than easing on a one-off basis to ensure that financial conditions remain decent.

Markets don’t really need an excuse to adjust holdings. This is not just in the U.S., you see it with some markets associated with a strong U.S. economy, e.g. Korea — a market we are focused on. So the bar is low for that kind of reaction.

I think the fear that people are focusing too much on valuations at this point across the board. It is important to balance so that it doesn't become a self-fulfilling downward spiral, which could lead to deterioration that is worse than the data might show when the shutdown ends.

The hope is consistency of data when it returns and that the Fed is easing in accordance with how the economy is functioning. International holders are overweight U.S. assets and may move out quickly if concerned. There is no decoupling—everyone follows the Fed and U.S. markets.

If they don't get government data on inflation and labor markets by December, this could lead to the Fed flying blind with potentially no rate cut, though they may rely on anecdotes. There is enough vote in the Fed for easing in balance to avoid more deterioration.