How AI Boom Impacts Gold & Oil Futures Amid U.S.-Iran MOU

David McAlvany argues that AI-driven equity concentration signals a late-cycle risk, making gold a key safe haven as bonds fail due to higher-for-longer rates. He sees gold reaching $5,500-$6,300 by year-end, with silver outperforming if GDP holds. Oil is bearish near-term but bullish long-term due to declining U.S. shale production.

Yields up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX cautious down , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil up , long term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

USD up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

gold sharp up

Mcalvany Financial Companies 4.2
Wealth Manager
David McAlvany 6.5

How AI Boom Impacts Gold & Oil Futures Amid U.S.-Iran MOU

Gold; WTI

Gold (correction target) → 3950
Gold (year-end target) → 5500
Gold (upside year-end) → 6300

dxy

The dollar is higher on the day (mentioned by host); higher-for-longer rates typically support the dollar.

metals

Silver will outperform gold if GDP stays positive with inflation; gold-silver ratio could trade into the 40s.

1 calls

+54

frequent correct calls with solid market follow-through

9/6/2025 4:30:33 PM	medium term sharp up	21 days later	+7.98%	+11.97%

ndx

Concentration in AI-related stocks (1% of S&P 500 driving 50% of gains) is unhealthy and signals end of bullish wave; downside potential is very consequential to index performance.

wti

The long-term picture for oil is very constructive; excellent entry point in low-to-mid $60s.

1 calls

-5

slightly worse than random

1/17/2026 11:00:51 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+2.02%	-1.01%

yields

We've just heard from the new Fed President that we're going to have higher for longer.

Introduces the topic: how AI could enhance the bull case for gold, in the wake of the FOMC meeting.

Speaker1
Speaker2

AI-driven concentration in equities (1% of S&P 500 driving 50% of gains) is unhealthy and signals end of bullish wave, increasing downside risk.

Bonds are not an alternative due to higher-for-longer rates; gold becomes the go-to safe haven.
Gold is down 3% on the day at $4,247, off 20% from January highs; asks for year-end price target.

Speaker1
Speaker2

Gold could see weakness to $3,850-$4,000 (50% Fibonacci retracement) but will take out old highs of $5,500 by year-end.

Central bank buying (China 19th month, 320k oz) defines the floor; investor interest needed to push past $5,500 to $6,300.
Asks what needs to happen for gold to reach the higher end of the $5,500-$6,300 range.

Speaker1
Speaker2

Gold becomes a fear trade if financial markets face further pressure; higher-for-longer rates are a death knell for private credit, potentially spilling into public equities.

Previous gold rally was driven by greed (momentum trade) and central banks, not retail; 2026 interest will be distinct and fear-driven.
Asks if silver is an option given it outperformed gold last year but is overlooked.

Speaker1
Speaker2

Silver will outperform gold if GDP stays positive with inflation; gold-silver ratio at 62:1 could trade into the 40s.

Gold leads, silver follows; last year gold moved 65%, silver 150%; replay possible in 2026.
Asks about characteristics to focus on when evaluating mining companies.

Speaker1
Speaker2

Mining companies are minting money at current levels; focus on tier-one jurisdictions, competent management, and capital discipline.

Correction in metals/miners is a buying opportunity; commodity price increases light a fire under shares.
Asks about oil at $73.77, whether there is a 'normal' for oil markets, and where prices are going.

Speaker1
Speaker2

Oil will not return to normal; long-term constructive due to declining U.S. shale production, but bearish near-term.

Chokepoint premiums from Middle East are a consideration; marginal production from U.S. shale is rolling over; excellent entry point in low-to-mid $60s.

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