metals

gold and silver prices are at record levels and platinum and plating prices have risen very sharply; our outlook both on a short-term and on a long-term basis is that prices will continue to rise; prices might have short-term pullbacks but expected to be shallow

metals

Ray Dalio explicitly states that gold is a strong diversifier and is performing well amid monetary and debt issues and compares current gold price moves to those in the early seventies, confirming gold (a metal) is sharply up in the short term.

yields

The interviewee expressed caution about cutting rates given the imbalances in debt and monetary policy's limited effectiveness, suggesting a cautious downtrend for yields.

ndx

Chris said that the fourth quarter tends to be pretty good from mid-October forward, and the leadership in the market has been pro-cyclical, with no change of the leadership fabric to worry for the rest of the year.

ndx

"We're still relatively optimistic about the outlook of China equity market... with the improvement on the fundamental side, we think there's ample liquidity that's going to support overall emerging market... so I'm still very optimistic from here." This positive outlook reflects on the tech/heavy emerging equity markets including Nasdaq 100 proxies.

wti

Honeywell Energy and Sustainability Solutions CEO Ken West discussed rising global energy demand and Honeywell's acquisitions to push further into LNG and energy infrastructure, implying optimism about energy prices and supply in the medium term.

yields

Fed Chair Jay Powell said near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment are tilted to the downside. He indicated no commitment to rate cuts and emphasized a balance, with a cautious approach to easing policy. No clear indication of falling yields was given.

yields

If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later to fully restore 2% inflation. We therefore judged it appropriate at our last meeting to take another step to work toward a more neutral policy stance, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4 to 4 and a quarter percent. The Fed is lowering rates cautiously due to increased downside risks to employment and upside inflation risks, indicating possible cautious downward pressure on yields in the near term.

metals

Gold is hitting record highs, up $42 today with repeated new records noted explicitly in the transcript.

yields

Several Fed officials, including Raphael Bostic, indicated no further cuts for the year and showed varied opinions; Jerome Powell and others signaled caution on rates with some arguing rates shouldn’t go lower.

dxy

Interviewee explained the dollar forming a wedge and likely to move lower reflecting a softer dollar in the medium to long-term.

metals

Gold is climbing to new all-time highs, which is explicitly noted as a safe haven move in the context of current market conditions.

ndx

They stated that earnings are supportive, and record highs on the Nasdaq are expected to continue in the near term.

ndx

The discussion highlights massive investments and scaling of AI infrastructure and computing power by Nvidia and OpenAI, indicating strong growth prospects for technology and AI-related sectors, which are major components of the Nasdaq 100 index.

metals

Gold surging 1%, 3681 the ounce

wti

West Texas Intermediate crude oil down 1.1% under $63 a barrel

ndx

THE RECORD RALLY, YOU LOOK AT WHAT SEEMS TO BE A SHIFT IN SENTIMENT... IT FEELS LIKE THE MOMENTUM IS UP... THIS IS A HEALTHY SHIFT... BIG TECH LEADING ABOUT SEVEN TENTS OF A PERCENT.

yields

WE HAVE TO SEE WHAT IS THE CATALYST FOR A RETURN TO MAYBE THE MORE TYPICAL RELATIONSHIP WHERE WHEN THIS LINE GOES DOWN THIS ONE DOES AS WELL.

yields

Shorter term inflation expectations have tended to respond to near-term inflation. So if inflation goes up, inflation expectations will predict that it takes just a little while to get back down. Longer term inflation expectations have been rock solid around 2%.

yields

The interviewee notes that a quarter point rate cut alone is not sufficient but indicates a path of rate adjustments to support the labor market amid signs of economic softening. This implies cautious easing (downward direction) in yields in the short term based on monetary policy actions.

yields

We are reacting to the much lower level of job creation and evidence of softening in the labor market, indicating risks moving towards balance, warranting a change in policy.

yields

We've kept policy at a restrictive level this year, but recent labor market data show softening and risks moving toward equality between inflation and employment goals, suggesting moving policy in the direction of neutral.

yields

The interviewee explicitly mentioned a risk-management cut due to cooling labor market, implying cautious easing in rates.

yields

we should be moving in the direction of neutral

yields

the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point Lowering policy interest rate indicates expectation of yields moving down in the short term

yields

So, you might have seen a little bit more of an uptick in the ten or the 30s, based upon the strong consumer data, but we just haven't seen that. So, bonds are staying relatively flat.

dxy

dollar is weakening today... dollar index at second lowest level of the year... world is diversifying out of dollars... eventual foreign exchange controls when the dollar really is going into freefall

metals

Gold is smashing fresh records, trading near $3,700 an ounce... price of gold almost crossed $3,700 this morning... price of gold rises... gold stocks have more than doubled... we could easily be at $4,000 by the end of the year

yields

they're going to cut rates tomorrow... rate cuts are not going to deliver the expected relief... they will backfire in that they will cause long-term rates to rise