yields

I'm pretty optimistic that for 2026, rates will be able to be a fair bit lower than they are today... I'm optimistic that a year from now rates can be a fair bit lower than where they are right now. His optimism is conditional on seeing evidence that inflation is transitory and coming down, which he expects to be observable in Q1 2026. He dissents on front-loading cuts now but is explicitly optimistic for lower rates by end of 2026.

dxy

Looking for a weaker dollar... I think that is a headwind for the dollar... that's also going to weigh on the dollar. Explicitly calls for weaker dollar due to interest rate differentials (other CBs hiking vs. US) and gradual central bank diversification away from USD ('slow drip').

metals

looking at things like gold, I'm 30 year in a row, I'm a gold bull. Explicit multi-year bullish call on gold. Context includes seeking diversification and weaker dollar, which supports metals.

ndx

There'll be a little bit more volatility in tech and communication services, largely speaking... so there'll be some choppiness there. The interviewee directly forecasts increased volatility and 'choppiness' for the tech sector (a core component of NDX) in the near term, citing questions about sustaining high growth rates in the AI capital investment build-out and execution challenges.

rut

We feel pretty good about the small cap space. In fact, we have overweight in large cap mid cap and small cap. The interviewee is explicitly overweight small caps (RUT proxy), citing their recent all-time highs, fiscal relief (100% expensing), and the benefit from lower rates. This constitutes a cautious positive outlook.

yields

over the last three months, we've really been in a range, a fairly tight range on the ten year treasury of between 4 and 4 and a quarter

yields

Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.5 to 3.75%... With today's decision, we have lowered our policy rate three quarters of a percentage point over our last three meetings. Rate cuts imply lower policy rates, which typically put downward pressure on short-term yields and influence the yield curve; explicit action taken to lower rates.

dxy

The US dollar has worked its way lower. Dovish Fed policy with rate cuts typically weakens the dollar.

wti

Crude oil that spiked because of the issue in Venezuela is now back down lower. Temporary geopolitical spike has reversed, suggesting normalization of oil prices.

yields

The 10-year yield that got up to 4.2% is now 4.12% and working its way lower. Fed's dovish rate cut and QE program of buying short-term securities should put downward pressure on yields.

dxy

Dollar had peaked, now it's starting to come down... dollar index here sitting at 98.51 pricing in more interest rate cuts Dovish Fed outlook, euro breaking out upside, other currencies pushing up, yield curve steepening

metals

Gold and silver extending gains after Fed delivered interest rate cut... silver hit contract high overnight, gold up $15... that's going to further boost the gold market Fed dovish stance, $40B monthly treasury purchases increasing liquidity, central bank buying, ETF flows into silver/platinum/palladium

ndx

NASDAQ also down about 3/4 of a percent... stock futures lower here on Oracle's disappointing cloud sales Oracle's 11% drop on AI spending concerns reinvigorating worries about huge AI-related capex, risk-off sentiment

yields

10-year Treasury yields hitting about that 4.2% resistance here... now reversing back lower to 4.15 Yield curve steepening suggests dovish Fed outlook, dollar weakening pricing in rate cuts

metals

We also have silver and gold on the positive and on the rise Metals rallying alongside tech stocks in response to dovish Fed policy and liquidity injection

ndx

The tech ETF we were talking about this yesterday on a 12 day win streak. Well, it's now in the green after this move up to possibly have a 13 day stretch to be its longest in about eight years Tech rally continuing on dovish Fed sentiment and liquidity injection

yields

we judged it appropriate at this meeting to lower our policy rate by a quarter percentage point Rate cut decision based on shifted risk balance: upside inflation risks vs increased downside employment risks, with tariffs seen as temporary price shock rather than persistent inflation driver.

yields

Committee decided to lower the target range for the Federal Funds rate by a quarter percentage point Rate cut decision implemented; forward guidance suggests policy now in neutral range with data-dependent approach for future moves, implying cautious downward pressure on short-term yields.

yields

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Rate cut decision indicates Fed is actively lowering short-term policy rates, which typically puts downward pressure on yields across the curve in the near term.

yields

the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point Rate cut decision based on cooling labor market, elevated inflation, and increased downside risks to employment

yields

If you get off the fence, it's probably another rate cut, but that's probably about it. One more rate cut. Governor cites manageable inflation, weak growth partly due to a corruption scandal, a delayed recovery until second half 2026, and a focus on growth over inflation as reasons for potential further easing. The context is the next policy move, implying a short-term horizon.

ndx

I think after today, next couple of days, I think we can see a relief rally in the markets. Based on relief from Fed rate cut and expectation of economic acceleration with productivity gains.

dxy

Because we expect a weaker dollar, then international bonds globally can make sense for diversification. Also references 'a soft dollar over the past year' as part of the global dynamic pressuring Treasury yields.

yields

I think they'll cut again in January... It will probably be at three and a half percent. Expects Fed to cut rates from current level to 3.5% in January, indicating lower yields ahead.

metals

Gold has had this ridiculous return. Gold has got this huge amount this year... I still think that gold has a place in a portfolio. Sees gold as portfolio hedge amid fiscal distrust; silver's 100%+ rise signals speculative frenzy but also continued metals strength.

wti

The one thing that's not inflating seems to be crude oil... the price of oil is has been gradually declining for quite some time now and it seems to be a forecast by the shape of the oil futures curve to be in the high 50s for the next 12 months. Oil futures curve forecasting high $50s, gradual decline continuing, positive for inflation control.

yields

The rise in long-term interest rates is not just a U.S. phenomenon. It's happened in all developed countries... I believe that's just a global phenomena in the developed world certainly that people don't trust the way these finances are being handled. Concerns about Treasury interest expense, budget deficits during expansion, and global fiscal distrust driving yields higher.

yields

So I'm thinking that we might see long-term interest rates actually rise on this more, more dovish fed... the curve steepened again... the 10-year treasury rate is up as well. Gundlach's core thesis is that Fed rate cuts lead to higher long-term yields, evidenced by historical correlation (175bps cuts, 30y up 75bps) and immediate market reaction (curve steepening post-cut).

yields

If the unemployment rate continues to tick up, then watch out because rates are going to continue to drop from here. If unemployment data deteriorates, the Fed will be forced to cut rates sooner and deeper than expected, pulling yields down. Recalibration would steepen curve with short-term rates coming down more.

yields

I hope they pause for a while and really assess where the economy is going... They're getting very close to neutral... continuing cutting is really moving policy into accommodation... they cannot continue to do that and move policy into a... accommodative stance. After the expected near-term cut, she advocates for a pause, implying policy rates (and thus yields) should stabilize as the Fed assesses the economy and maintains a somewhat restrictive stance to combat inflation.

metals

silver reached new all-time high overnight... silver's really extending its gains here with the momentum coming from supply tightness overseas, and further bets on monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve Discusses silver at all-time highs with momentum from Fed easing bets; mentions gold long-term target of 5000 by 2026; connects natural gas/AI demand to industrial metals thesis

yields

10-year Treasury yields and this is a bit alarming sitting at about 4.2%. So big breakout to the upside Describes 4.2% yield as 'alarming' and 'big breakout to upside'; connects higher yields to potential equity market turbulence

yields

I think they will cut... the Fed will ultimately embark on a deeper easing cycle than the market currently has... requirement to move interest rates sharply lower than they are today. Based on expectation of weaker labor market data emerging in 2026, requiring Fed easing to counteract, and driven by AI productivity gains lowering cost pressures.

ndx

I think that's going to move equities a lot higher His bullish equity view is directly tied to the Fed's unexpected dovish pivot and balance sheet expansion ('QE Lite'), which he sees as stimulative despite strong current economic data.

metals

we remain bullish. We have 5,000 more. And I'll start it because we think investors will keep buying gold Fractured geopolitical environment, large government deficits, expectations of continued monetary easing, and central bank buying despite potential marginal headwinds.

wti

we think prices will likely be a little weaker in the first half of next year OPEC adding production, steady demand leading to inventory build and downward pressure, but OPEC cautious and Chinese buying prevent a crash.

ndx

as long as we get accommodation I think equities will continue to run Fed accommodation supports equities. Cheap credit fuels AI investment, though notes pushback on debt financing for some plays like Oracle.

ndx

one of them at the highest level is that the NASDAQ will be up more than 10% driven by AI Prediction is based on the AI growth story continuing and investor fears subsiding, with a timeframe implied by 'going into 2026' and 'next year'.

dxy

I think the dollar might go down. Depending on how it goes down, it could go down in stages. I think that's most likely way. The explicit statement that the dollar 'might go down... in stages' indicates a cautious downward view. The discussion is framed in the context of portfolio construction for the coming years, suggesting a medium-term horizon.

metals

Gold would be another great one to buy. Despite everything that's happened despite the run we had. Gold stays central to portfolio construction. The explicit recommendation to buy gold as a hedge against dollar decay and for portfolio construction indicates a positive directional view. The context of multi-year portfolio strategy suggests a medium-term horizon.

metals

CPM group has it expects precious to rise both in the short and the long term... Our view has been since 2000 that we were heading into a gold and silver renaissance... driving gold and silver prices to record highs over several decades... We expect prices to remain high and to move to further highs over the next two years. Secular upward shift in investment demand, driven by political/economic risks and investors rediscovering value of gold/silver. Short-term weakness possible but broader trend is up.

yields

Market is 90% of the market is betting that there'll be a 25 to 50 basis point rate cut... and we agree with that. We think it's likely... It may be the last interest rate cut for a while... It may well be that the economy looks so much worse as the data comes out in January and February, that the Fed cuts rates more aggressively. Expectation of Fed rate cut due to softening labor market, problematic economic indicators, and storm clouds hovering above economy. Leaning toward more aggressive cuts if data worsens.

yields

I don't think rates are going very far. I think ultimately you're going to see rates come down. His core thesis is that the Fed will cut to 3%, which implies lower policy rates and should pull down longer-term yields over the medium term.

wti

oil prices are going down Persistent global oversupply, weakening demand outlook, concerns about Chinese economy, restored production in Iraq, expectations of supply glut outweighing geopolitics.

wti

oil prices are going down because the persistent role of global over supply, weakening demand on the outlook here, concerns about the Chinese economy... resistance 60 to 61 support 58. We break there. We're probably going to retest those low as well. Supply glut expectations outweigh geopolitics; restored Iraqi production; potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal adding supply.

ndx

Maintains positive outlook on Mag 7/AI trade as long-term narrative; sees AI benefits spreading to healthcare and other sectors; believes in AI productivity gains despite timing uncertainty.

yields

we are still anticipating at least two cuts next year as the Fed tries to take rates down closer to a neutral rate territory Hawkish cut expected tomorrow signals pause, but trajectory is downward over next year with new dovish Fed Chair likely accelerating cuts.

yields

I think rates in the United States America should be much lower. [...] Jay, Powell is too late [...] our rates should be significantly lower compared to the rest of this world. Argues US rates are unjustifiably high compared to other nations (33rd), cites no inflation (<3%), falling energy prices, and strong GDP growth. Believes Fed is driven by fear, not fundamentals.

dxy

the dollar is flat at 9905. No directional bias is given; the statement is purely observational of current price action.

ndx

US stocks, they may be more volatile though after tomorrow's Fed meeting... with the Bloomberg option data showing an implied move of about 0.7% in either direction on the US equity markets. Volatility is expected due to diverging views among Fed officials and major event risks (Fed meeting, Oracle results).

rut

The Russell 2000 has really been performing well recently here in the small caps... Performance is linked to a surge in small business optimism, with the NFIB index hitting a three-month high and owners anticipating higher sales.

yields

bond yields pushed higher... The 10-year Treasury yield sits at about 4.16%, with an overnight high of 4.18%. It's been almost a breakout on 10-year Treasury yields. Globally, central banks tilting hawkish and stagflation (rising inflation, slower growth) are pushing up yields. The US yield curve is steepening.

metals

Gold will do better as a diversifier. So it has the effect in such times of raising the returns and diversifying the portfolio. His bullish view is conditional on the macro risks he outlines (debt, currency devaluation, political/geopolitical conflict). He sees gold as a hedge that will appreciate when these risks materialize and hurt other assets.