metals

Pettit describes gold as a 'really easy inflation trade' that people go to when concerned about runaway inflation. He notes ETF flows and momentum trading, framing it as a hedge for longer-term inflation risks, suggesting a cautiously positive outlook.

yields

if you chip away too much [at Fed independence], in my view, this is my opinion, it will drive rates higher, not lower. Links political pressure/erosion of Fed credibility directly to higher interest rates.

ndx

disappointing news on AI could lead to a sharp decline in equity prices Bowman explicitly links AI disappointment to sharp equity decline, implying NDX (tech-heavy) vulnerability.

yields

I do believe that's going to lead to a steeper yield curve. Justification is deflationary trends from AI and China's trade surplus creating conditions for lower policy rates, which historically steepen the curve. The risk of elevated rates due to fiscal deficits and potential loss of foreign confidence in US Treasuries provides a secondary, longer-term bullish argument for yields.

yields

it will drive rates higher, not lower Political interference with Federal Reserve independence undermines credibility and could lead to inflationary expectations, forcing higher rates.

wti

it will definitely lead to an increase of spike in oil prices Conditional on Iran shutting down Strait of Hormuz, which would create immediate supply concerns similar to historical tanker wars.

yields

We think all things considered, there is room to cut the policy rate in the second quarter by 10 basis points. That's our forecast. Room for cut is constrained by net interest margin at record low; PBOC will use cuts sparingly and efficiently. Monetary support may mostly be liquidity injection to prevent bond yields from rising.

ndx

Explicitly states that 10-year yields over 5-5.5% 'would shock the equity market' and 'have a very negative impact on the equity market... force a revaluation.' This is a direct causal link from his yield view to equities.

yields

there's a probability we could see the ten year over 5%, maybe even 5.5%... the yield curve is going to get steeper, not flatter. Driven by potential new inflationary pressures from private capital deployment and deficit concerns, not the Fed's immediate actions.

metals

I still like gold as well... We are just going through this huge debasement cycle right now. And I think that's likely to continue... Every time there was a debasement cycle, the S&P 500 underperformed gold, which is happening right now. And I think that could potentially continue if the debasement cycle continues. Thesis based on long-term historical currency debasement cycles (4th since 1800s) driven by fiscal deficit, debt-to-GDP, and inflation. Gold outperforms equities during such periods.

rut

I still like the Russell 2000... For small caps to outperform you need speculation... you need a good manufacturing cycle. And I think we are on the cusp of a potential manufacturing upcycle for the first time in three years. Rotation from mega-caps to small caps driven by fiscal tailwinds and a changing market reaction function where higher rates are now seen as cyclical, not restrictive. A potential manufacturing upcycle provides fundamental support.

dxy

Don't feel strongly about dollar this year; don't see strong magnetic pull for dollar; good US growth not super weak for dollar but no bullish case

metals

It could go sideways for a year Has been selling gold over last six months due to large holding; acknowledges short-term consolidation potential

yields

If we are... I think... Rates can go down and still a fair amount... I do [see rates lower at the end of this year]. Conditional on seeing convincing evidence that inflation is on a path back to 2%. The direction is cautious due to the explicit conditionality and noted concerns about persistent services inflation.

yields

I think rates can come down... I do [see rates lower at end of year] Conditional on convincing evidence inflation returning to 2%. Sees progress but non-housing services inflation still concerning at >4% annualized.

metals

I believe that they're going to go far higher than where they actually are right now, even in a short time frame. Central bank demand shift from treasuries to gold; industrial demand for silver from AI, data centers, solar; supply constraints (mining); low producer input costs relative to output price.

rut

We're neutral small caps... We're gonna remain more neutral in that space. The explicit 'neutral' stance, supported by a multi-year pattern of earnings estimate downgrades, translates to a 'sideways' directional view for the Russell 2000 (RUT).

ndx

all of these points to a pretty robust US equity market outlook Superior earnings power, AI long-term growth, capex, and supportive fiscal policy ahead of midterms underpin strength. Fed cuts less relevant.

ndx

Tech's gonna reassert its leadership... I think Mag7 breaks out from this consolidation and reasserts some form of leadership. Sees Goldilocks backdrop (disinflation, fiscal stimulus, rate cuts) as 'pretty great backdrop for equities' and expects tech to lead after recent underperformance.

wti

we're going to have oil cooperating in our view Part of cyclical disinflation story; oil price cooperation suggests contained or downward pressure on prices in the near term as a disinflationary tailwind.

wti

We think Brent prices can hit $70 in the next few days and WTI up to around $66-67. Geopolitical risk premium from Iran/Russia-Ukraine conflicts, supply disruptions, and shift from bearish to neutral/slightly bearish view due to demand/supply uncertainty.

yields

The 10-year tends to follow nominal GDP... should we have four and a quarter? It probably should be higher than that. Nominal GDP >8% is booming and historically inconsistent with Fed cuts. US economy not productive enough to offset high nominal GDP without inflation. Market overconfident in Fed's ability to cut.

yields

Market prices in a little over two Fed cuts this year; likely at least some will happen. First couple cuts seem more certain. Expects 10-year Treasury to be in a pretty tight, stable range for rest of year. Expects Fed to cut rates, which would put downward pressure on front-end yields, while long-end remains rangebound.

metals

it's just a big momentum trade... could go for a lot longer Driven by hedge fund momentum, central bank diversification from dollar reserves after geopolitical events (Russian assets), and as a hedge against dollar debasement/inflation.

rut

small caps would struggle if we don't get a couple rate cuts... I think small caps probably do need a couple rate cuts to rally. But I think we're gonna get them. His bullish view on small caps (RUT proxy) is conditional on receiving rate cuts, which he expects. He also notes small caps are now more rate-sensitive and relatively cheap.

yields

we're looking at continued lowering rates regardless of political pressures, at least on the short end of the curve to address these situations. Based on debt/deficit picture and weakening labor market.

yields

I don't expect by the way there to be a rate cut at this next meeting... I don't see any need for them to move The explicit expectation of *no rate cut* implies yields are not likely to fall sharply. The direction 'cautious down' reflects the overall tone that there is no urgent need for policy easing, suggesting yields may drift lower cautiously if inflation data permits, but no aggressive action is forthcoming.

dxy

A gradual reduction in rates towards the rest of the world. It means weaker dollar. It doesn't mean a collapse in the dollar.

yields

The Federal Reserve has already set up the market for interest rates to move to 3% by the end of the year. The market is already set up for rates to go lower.

dxy

Dollar likely stable to weaker over the balance of the year. Expects dollar depreciation to support emerging market outperformance.

yields

Expects stability in intermediate/long end, small decline in yields at front end. Anticipates Fed cuts putting downward pressure on short-term yields.

metals

Key commodity remains gold... 5300 with a high conviction will get there. Positioned as the 'ultimate geopolitical hedge' against dollar exposure and current uncertainties.

metals

after this parabolic move... one has to be worried about a potential period of profit taking The sharp, parabolic rise since early December and recent spikes in platinum/palladium create vulnerability to short-term corrections and profit-taking, despite the strong fundamental backdrop.

dxy

I have a sense here that it dollars going to start to rally States the dollar is at major support and expresses a personal sense that it will rally from that level.

metals

They're going to get hit, they're going to hit hard. They're probably going to go down 50% Describes the parabolic move in silver/gold as a wave-three advance, which is typically followed by a sharp correction. He frames the 50% drop as a pullback within a longer-term bull run.

ndx

Tech looks vulnerable. Agrees with host's statement that tech looks vulnerable and advises diversifying away from high-beta tech stocks that are starting to wobble.

wti

You got to see it build value above 61. Then I start maybe thinking a little bit about it. Implies oil is in a consolidation/indecisive phase until it can establish itself above a key technical level ($61). No clear directional bias is given for the current bounce.

metals

Direct analogy to gold going from 2,000 to 4,500 during previous hoarding episode. Raw industrial materials chart showing tightness and rising quickly. Hoarding of raw materials expected similar to precious metals. New order to inventory ratios turning up indicating demand for inventory.

wti

That's a recipe for a spike in prices right now. Record short positions, demand picking up (not slowing), geopolitical risk at all-time high, hoarding behavior beginning, supply vulnerable in dark fleet ships.

yields

I think rates in the United States of America are coming down. They should be lower. Argues inflation is at 2.7%, productivity is high, and the Fed is tightening via its balance sheet, giving it room to cut. Lower rates are needed for housing affordability and to let a winning economy thrive.

dxy

Probably a weak year for the dollar again. Links dollar weakness to pressure from the undermining of the Fed.

metals

Precious metals gains are a sustainable theme linked to dollar pressure from undermining of the Fed.

yields

Base case is Treasuries have an okay year, yields hold or decline slightly.

yields

they're not going to move this month or next month because of this Markets are discounting the political noise and focusing on FOMC dynamics, expecting no immediate policy change despite the investigation.

yields

I think the Fed's got to get the rate down at 3%. I think that's closer to equilibrium. Argument is based on addressing a 'labor problem' and allowing an 'over levered' economy/government to 'breathe'. This is a policy prescription implying lower policy rates, which would generally pull down yields.

ndx

Tech will still lead the rally and lead the market this year Technology is still the place to be; AI boom remains strong; Nvidia leads the way; Bullish on tech names like Palantir and Amazon with AWS growth

metals

Lower real interest rates support also the outperformance of metals. Gold as geopolitical hedge; monetary policy shift toward cutting rates will lower real yields, boosting metals.

yields

Fed has scope to cut interest rates. Labor market weakening, inflation moving closer to 2% target, creating room for rate cuts.

yields

I think that the long-term interest rate is going to move up here, no matter what happens with the Fed and short-term interest rates. Concern about budget deficits in US and other countries like Japan, where rates are already moving up; believes deficits are finally impacting markets.