Mike McGlone argues the US stock market is the last 'stud' asset, but it is overdue for a major correction that will trigger a deflationary recession. He sees precious metals, cryptos, and commodities as 'duds' that have already peaked. His endgame is a pump-and-dump pattern spreading to stocks, leading to a down year and a potential 50% drawdown. He recommends long bonds at 5% as the only buy.

Precious metals rally on potential US-Iran deal and expectations of delayed rate hikes, with gold up 2.8% and silver up 5%. Dollar index drops below 100, 10-year yields break below 4.5%. Copper has structural support from power grid demand. Crude oil down 6% on Goldman Sachs forecast cut. Russell 2000 up 3.6% as midcaps lead.

Jim Bianco argues inflation is structurally higher (3-3.5% range) due to post-pandemic shifts (work-from-home, deglobalization, increased geopolitical conflict). He believes the Fed's 2% target is unrealistic and that the neutral rate is higher than assumed, meaning rate cuts are unnecessary and a rate hike by year-end is 100% likely. He expects a modest move higher in yields, not a jump, unless the Fed appears dismissive of inflation or oil spikes.

Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets discusses the limited impact of the 100 million barrel SPR release, noting daily losses of 1-1.2 billion barrels due to the war. She warns of rapid inventory draws and potential tank bottom risks, and emphasizes that the endgame for the Strait of Hormuz control is critical for oil price normalization.

Ed Ludlow discusses SpaceX's record-breaking IPO, its $75B raise, and the company's vision to dominate space-based AI data centers. He highlights the IPO's unique structure (Musk set price, bypassed banks), the massive retail and institutional demand, and the speculative nature of the $28.5T addressable market. He notes that while the IPO will force passive flows into Nasdaq 100, the fundamental delivery risk (Starship reusability, satellite data centers) is extreme, making the 100x sales valuation highly speculative. He draws parallels to Tesla's trajectory but cautions SpaceX's path is far more uncertain.

Jim Bianco argues that interest rates should rise with a stronger economy and inflation, which is not inherently bad for equities. He expects a modest move higher in rates, but warns of a jump condition if the Fed appears dismissive of inflation or if crude oil prices spike sharply.

Markets are climbing a wall of worry with geopolitics, IPOs, and rate hikes. Short-term strategy favors front-end investment grade credit for asymmetry. Gold is on pause but has double-digit upside long-term. AI remains a strong theme but revenue growth needs to materialize. ECB hike is likely a one-and-done, not start of a cycle.

Kevin Hincks analyzes hot PPI headline data (driven by energy) but favorable core, noting the market is more focused on escalating US-Iran rhetoric and potential negotiations. He sees dip buying potential after recent S&P/Nasdaq corrections but expects continued choppiness. Crude oil response is muted despite tensions.

Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses the recent decline in gold and silver prices due to investor selling, particularly from ETFs. He expects a volatile consolidation phase for gold between $3,800 and $4,800, and for silver between $60 and $85-$90, before prices rise again later in the year. He dismisses claims of a COMEX silver shortage and notes bearish sentiment for platinum and palladium. He also comments on elevated inflation data and the expectation that the Fed will hold rates steady.

Headline CPI rose to 4.2% YoY (highest in 3 years), driven by energy (+23.5% YoY) due to Middle East supply concerns, while core CPI eased to 2.9% YoY. US military disabled an Iranian oil tanker, pushing WTI up ~2.5% to $93. Freight stocks fell on Amazon's LTL expansion. TSMC revenue missed expectations, SK Hynix plans US ADR listing. Adobe reports tomorrow. ECB expected to hike. PPI data awaited.

Tiffany Wilding of PIMCO argues that current high headline inflation (4.2%) is driven by temporary energy supply shocks from the Middle East, not persistent demand. She expects headline inflation to peak soon and potentially fall below 2% next year as energy prices mean revert. Core inflation (2.9%) is more stable, and the labor market is balanced, not a source of inflationary pressure. The Fed retains credibility on inflation expectations.

Michael McKee analyzes the May inflation print, noting it is the fastest in three years at 4.2%, outpacing wage growth of 3.4%. He explains that while the end of the Iran war could bring prices down, it will take time and there is disagreement on how long. He discusses the challenge for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, stating the high inflation makes rate cuts impossible this year, though the strong labor market provides some comfort. He also notes that tariff inflation is starting to fall out of goods prices.

Jim Bianco argues AI is in a massive hype cycle, but the technology could be transformative. He sees the recent sell-off as a healthy correction after a long rally, not a crash. On oil, he believes headline fatigue is muting price reactions, but warns that prolonged geopolitical tensions could drain inventories and cause a spike later. He is cautiously optimistic on AI's long-term potential but wary of current overvaluation.

CPI expected above 4% for first time in 3 years, challenging Fed credibility; markets price September hike but 30-year yield near 5% is key risk; ECB likely to hike twice, BOE faces inflation challenges.

President Trump announces a near-final settlement with Iran to end the war, canceling planned strikes. He claims the stock market's 1,000-point rise signals approval, and expects oil prices to drop further. However, the deal is not yet signed, Israeli approval is uncertain, and details remain unknown, so market optimism is cautious.

We are in a once-in-a-lifetime AI CapEx cycle driving global growth. Recent volatility was a healthy reset, not a major correction. Financials are also attractive due to higher rates and deregulation. China may find new export channels in green energy know-how.

Luke Gromen argues the Fed is cornered between high debt and inflation, forced to choose between the dollar and the bond market. He sees the Iran war as a catastrophic policy error that will spike oil, break the bond market, and cause a debt spiral. He is bearish on all risk assets near-term, expecting a sharp correction, but sees gold and Bitcoin as warning signals of systemic stress.

President Trump announces continued military strikes on Iran, claims the U.S. is extracting millions of barrels of oil from Iran/Venezuela, and predicts oil will drop to $1.85/gallon once the conflict ends. He also states inflation will come down sharply after the war.

Trump discusses military strikes on Iran to prevent nuclear weapons, claiming success in keeping oil prices low and stock markets high. He defends USMCA renewal, criticizes the JCPOA, and outlines plans for AI industry partnerships. He asserts that post-conflict oil prices will drop significantly.

Trump discusses military action against Iran to prevent nuclear weapons, claims oil prices are stable due to secret oil seizures, boasts about stock market highs, and threatens to not renew USMCA unless treated better. He also comments on AI industry, Senate races, and downsizing government agencies.

Speaker1 provides a macro outlook for the week, focusing on upcoming CPI data (headline high, core moderate), geopolitical de-escalation with Iran lowering oil risk, and a cautious view on Apple stock ahead of WWDC due to high expectations. Speaker2 interjects with minor confirmations.

Timothy Moe views the 8% circuit breaker in Korea as a technical correction in a long-term bull market. He emphasizes strong underlying fundamentals (220% profit growth this year) and cheap valuations (sub-7x earnings). He sees the AI story as just beginning and profitable, and expects the market to regain its footing after the shakeout.

Stocks recovered some of Friday's losses after a strong May jobs report raised Fed rate hike expectations. The Dow fell 81 points, but the Nasdaq rose 220 points (+0.9%) driven by chipmakers. The S&P 500 added 22 points. Tango Therapeutics surged 53% on positive pancreatic cancer trial data. Oil edged higher to $91.30/barrel. Trump's lawyers plan to ask the Supreme Court to revive a $475M defamation lawsuit against CNN.

Former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin discusses the need for a ceasefire in the Middle East to stabilize the global economy, the importance of international cooperation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Europe's increased defense spending, NATO's continued relevance, and the risk of China coercing Taiwan rather than invading. He avoids commenting on specific political moves by the current administration.

Austin assesses that the May summit reduced near-term escalation risk with China, but warns that a Taiwan Strait conflict would have a far greater global economic impact than the Strait of Hormuz. He believes Xi prefers coercion over direct force.

A Fed rate hike is not inevitable but more than 100% priced in. The choice is between hold or multiple hikes - if they hike, they'll be behind the curve. CPI print on Wednesday is critical - consensus 4.2% headline inflation above 4% is too problematic. Fed hoping for Iran peace deal to collapse oil prices for disinflationary wave.

Ken Rogoff argues the US dollar's dominance is slowly eroding due to external pressures (Iran conflict, China's push for yuan) and internal fiscal problems (rising debt, political gridlock). The outcome of the Iran conflict could accelerate or slow this trend, but the long-term trajectory is towards a more multipolar currency system.

Rick Rieder of BlackRock analyzes the strong but uneven U.S. economy, driven by AI-related construction and investment, while other sectors soften. He advocates for the Fed to hold rates, not hike, given the supply-shock nature of inflation and the limited impact of rate hikes on AI spending. He sees solid market technicals, prefers European fixed income, and uses volatility to hedge equity downside.

Jeffrey Rosenberg argues the Fed is set for a hawkish turn due to accelerating data, a stronger labor market, and supply shocks from oil. He believes the market is pricing in a full hike for the year, which feels right, but the Fed will move slowly and is unlikely to aggressively tighten unless inflation reaccelerates. The strong labor report may have one-offs, but the trend is gradual strengthening.

Ken Rogoff discusses the gradual decline of the US dollar's dominance, accelerated by the Iran conflict, US fiscal problems, and China's push for yuan use. The dollar's status is eroding slowly due to external pressures (multipolar system) and internal issues (debt, political gridlock).