dxy

Looking for a weaker dollar... I think that is a headwind for the dollar... that's also going to weigh on the dollar. Explicitly calls for weaker dollar due to interest rate differentials (other CBs hiking vs. US) and gradual central bank diversification away from USD ('slow drip').

metals

looking at things like gold, I'm 30 year in a row, I'm a gold bull. Explicit multi-year bullish call on gold. Context includes seeking diversification and weaker dollar, which supports metals.

ndx

There'll be a little bit more volatility in tech and communication services, largely speaking... so there'll be some choppiness there. The interviewee directly forecasts increased volatility and 'choppiness' for the tech sector (a core component of NDX) in the near term, citing questions about sustaining high growth rates in the AI capital investment build-out and execution challenges.

rut

We feel pretty good about the small cap space. In fact, we have overweight in large cap mid cap and small cap. The interviewee is explicitly overweight small caps (RUT proxy), citing their recent all-time highs, fiscal relief (100% expensing), and the benefit from lower rates. This constitutes a cautious positive outlook.

yields

over the last three months, we've really been in a range, a fairly tight range on the ten year treasury of between 4 and 4 and a quarter

yields

Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.5 to 3.75%... With today's decision, we have lowered our policy rate three quarters of a percentage point over our last three meetings. Rate cuts imply lower policy rates, which typically put downward pressure on short-term yields and influence the yield curve; explicit action taken to lower rates.

dxy

Dollar had peaked, now it's starting to come down... dollar index here sitting at 98.51 pricing in more interest rate cuts Dovish Fed outlook, euro breaking out upside, other currencies pushing up, yield curve steepening

metals

Gold and silver extending gains after Fed delivered interest rate cut... silver hit contract high overnight, gold up $15... that's going to further boost the gold market Fed dovish stance, $40B monthly treasury purchases increasing liquidity, central bank buying, ETF flows into silver/platinum/palladium

ndx

NASDAQ also down about 3/4 of a percent... stock futures lower here on Oracle's disappointing cloud sales Oracle's 11% drop on AI spending concerns reinvigorating worries about huge AI-related capex, risk-off sentiment

yields

10-year Treasury yields hitting about that 4.2% resistance here... now reversing back lower to 4.15 Yield curve steepening suggests dovish Fed outlook, dollar weakening pricing in rate cuts

metals

We also have silver and gold on the positive and on the rise Metals rallying alongside tech stocks in response to dovish Fed policy and liquidity injection

ndx

The tech ETF we were talking about this yesterday on a 12 day win streak. Well, it's now in the green after this move up to possibly have a 13 day stretch to be its longest in about eight years Tech rally continuing on dovish Fed sentiment and liquidity injection

yields

we judged it appropriate at this meeting to lower our policy rate by a quarter percentage point Rate cut decision based on shifted risk balance: upside inflation risks vs increased downside employment risks, with tariffs seen as temporary price shock rather than persistent inflation driver.

yields

Committee decided to lower the target range for the Federal Funds rate by a quarter percentage point Rate cut decision implemented; forward guidance suggests policy now in neutral range with data-dependent approach for future moves, implying cautious downward pressure on short-term yields.

yields

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Rate cut decision indicates Fed is actively lowering short-term policy rates, which typically puts downward pressure on yields across the curve in the near term.

yields

the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point Rate cut decision based on cooling labor market, elevated inflation, and increased downside risks to employment

dxy

Because we expect a weaker dollar, then international bonds globally can make sense for diversification. Also references 'a soft dollar over the past year' as part of the global dynamic pressuring Treasury yields.

metals

Gold has had this ridiculous return. Gold has got this huge amount this year... I still think that gold has a place in a portfolio. Sees gold as portfolio hedge amid fiscal distrust; silver's 100%+ rise signals speculative frenzy but also continued metals strength.

wti

The one thing that's not inflating seems to be crude oil... the price of oil is has been gradually declining for quite some time now and it seems to be a forecast by the shape of the oil futures curve to be in the high 50s for the next 12 months. Oil futures curve forecasting high $50s, gradual decline continuing, positive for inflation control.

yields

The rise in long-term interest rates is not just a U.S. phenomenon. It's happened in all developed countries... I believe that's just a global phenomena in the developed world certainly that people don't trust the way these finances are being handled. Concerns about Treasury interest expense, budget deficits during expansion, and global fiscal distrust driving yields higher.

yields

So I'm thinking that we might see long-term interest rates actually rise on this more, more dovish fed... the curve steepened again... the 10-year treasury rate is up as well. Gundlach's core thesis is that Fed rate cuts lead to higher long-term yields, evidenced by historical correlation (175bps cuts, 30y up 75bps) and immediate market reaction (curve steepening post-cut).

yields

If the unemployment rate continues to tick up, then watch out because rates are going to continue to drop from here. If unemployment data deteriorates, the Fed will be forced to cut rates sooner and deeper than expected, pulling yields down. Recalibration would steepen curve with short-term rates coming down more.

yields

I hope they pause for a while and really assess where the economy is going... They're getting very close to neutral... continuing cutting is really moving policy into accommodation... they cannot continue to do that and move policy into a... accommodative stance. After the expected near-term cut, she advocates for a pause, implying policy rates (and thus yields) should stabilize as the Fed assesses the economy and maintains a somewhat restrictive stance to combat inflation.

yields

I think they will cut... the Fed will ultimately embark on a deeper easing cycle than the market currently has... requirement to move interest rates sharply lower than they are today. Based on expectation of weaker labor market data emerging in 2026, requiring Fed easing to counteract, and driven by AI productivity gains lowering cost pressures.

ndx

I think that's going to move equities a lot higher His bullish equity view is directly tied to the Fed's unexpected dovish pivot and balance sheet expansion ('QE Lite'), which he sees as stimulative despite strong current economic data.

metals

we remain bullish. We have 5,000 more. And I'll start it because we think investors will keep buying gold Fractured geopolitical environment, large government deficits, expectations of continued monetary easing, and central bank buying despite potential marginal headwinds.

wti

we think prices will likely be a little weaker in the first half of next year OPEC adding production, steady demand leading to inventory build and downward pressure, but OPEC cautious and Chinese buying prevent a crash.

ndx

as long as we get accommodation I think equities will continue to run Fed accommodation supports equities. Cheap credit fuels AI investment, though notes pushback on debt financing for some plays like Oracle.

ndx

one of them at the highest level is that the NASDAQ will be up more than 10% driven by AI Prediction is based on the AI growth story continuing and investor fears subsiding, with a timeframe implied by 'going into 2026' and 'next year'.

metals

CPM group has it expects precious to rise both in the short and the long term... Our view has been since 2000 that we were heading into a gold and silver renaissance... driving gold and silver prices to record highs over several decades... We expect prices to remain high and to move to further highs over the next two years. Secular upward shift in investment demand, driven by political/economic risks and investors rediscovering value of gold/silver. Short-term weakness possible but broader trend is up.

yields

Market is 90% of the market is betting that there'll be a 25 to 50 basis point rate cut... and we agree with that. We think it's likely... It may be the last interest rate cut for a while... It may well be that the economy looks so much worse as the data comes out in January and February, that the Fed cuts rates more aggressively. Expectation of Fed rate cut due to softening labor market, problematic economic indicators, and storm clouds hovering above economy. Leaning toward more aggressive cuts if data worsens.

yields

I don't think rates are going very far. I think ultimately you're going to see rates come down. His core thesis is that the Fed will cut to 3%, which implies lower policy rates and should pull down longer-term yields over the medium term.

ndx

Maintains positive outlook on Mag 7/AI trade as long-term narrative; sees AI benefits spreading to healthcare and other sectors; believes in AI productivity gains despite timing uncertainty.

yields

we are still anticipating at least two cuts next year as the Fed tries to take rates down closer to a neutral rate territory Hawkish cut expected tomorrow signals pause, but trajectory is downward over next year with new dovish Fed Chair likely accelerating cuts.

metals

Gold will do better as a diversifier. So it has the effect in such times of raising the returns and diversifying the portfolio. His bullish view is conditional on the macro risks he outlines (debt, currency devaluation, political/geopolitical conflict). He sees gold as a hedge that will appreciate when these risks materialize and hurt other assets.

ndx

We think those things stay largely magnificent for some time to come next year Refers to AI plays (which dominate NDX) remaining strong, though advises diversification suggesting some caution about concentration risk.

metals

I would still say gold on the one hand to be very honest. Names gold as a highest conviction trade, indicating a bullish view on precious metals.

ndx

On equity side, with all the fiscal policy, I would say could also be constructive, but don't expect the same double digit performance. I would be okay if it's like single digit, high single digit, say 8 to 9%. That would rather be all forecast. Expects constructive but modest (high single-digit) equity returns, supported by fiscal policy, implying a cautious up direction for the market which includes tech-heavy indices.

yields

If you look at the 10-year US treasuries, we think they could be 4-15, like exactly where we are right now. In 12 months time, because inflation remains a topic, so we don't see inflation to substantially come down. But even go up slightly from 2.8 to 2.9 that's our forecast. Expects yields to stay at current elevated level (4.15%) over the next 12 months due to sticky inflation, implying a cautious upward bias from a 'lower yields' narrative.

ndx

I think the knee-jerk reaction probably is negative... So I think the knee jerk reaction in the short term is probably negative Based on market pricing and recent conditioning (2022 sell-off on rate hikes). This is a conditional forecast for if the Fed does NOT cut rates.

yields

It's almost certainly the case. When John Williams made the case for 25 basis points and no one else contradicted him, it's pretty obvious that's what they want to do. The interviewee is confirming market expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut, which would directly lower short-term policy rates and likely put downward pressure on the front-end of the yield curve.

metals

Getting back to the reason we're all here talking together today is because that [adding liquidity] would be good for gold. I'm sure. Grant explicitly links Fed liquidity injections to being 'good for gold.' He later analyzes silver's rise as driven by belief in the 'debasement trade' and supply-demand fundamentals, while noting gold lacks signs of speculative excess, suggesting sustained upward momentum.

yields

the fed's going to take the fed funds rate down to 2.75, which is the neutral rate Expects Fed to cut rates to neutral level, implying lower yields over medium term as policy normalizes

yields

I don't think the bond market is going to move that much down... It would not necessarily lower that long rate. Historical spread (Fed funds ~100bps below 10-year) suggests limited downward movement for long-term yields despite Fed cuts. Current rise in long-term yields attributed to Japan and strong US economy, not Fed policy changes.

yields

what we expect to see is another 25 basis point rate cut in December. I think it's going to be hard for them all based off of the data also not to cut in January... things are tilted toward cuts, especially at this meeting, and then likely going forward into 2026 Expects Fed cuts due to need to support job market despite lingering inflation concerns; dovish tilt from potential new leadership (Hassett).

yields

rates have backed up... it is the has it picked that is the matter of concern here Links recent yield increase to market anxiety about potential political influence undermining the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility.

yields

the bond market isn't exactly going along with the program... the bond yield do when it went up 100 basis points... bond market is not fully convinced that it's mission accomplished for the Fed in terms of inflation... bond market is just trying to remind the government that, hey, you aren't doing anything about the deficit. Yields are rising despite Fed cuts because the bond market doubts inflation is defeated and is concerned about large deficits and global debt issues.

metals

As long as gold is not break below 4100, the odds favor heavily, a move back to all time highs... longer term very bullish on gold again both fundamentally and technically. Bull flag formation suggests near-term consolidation, but fundamental factors (spending, central bank buying) support a medium-term upside move.

ndx

We did hit some key resistance levels on the S&P and the Nasdaq... we're starting to see that pull back begin... the technicals are telling us it's not going to happen [Santa Claus rally]. Cites technical resistance, AI trade risks (energy constraints), and leading indicator from Bitcoin top as reasons for a near-term pullback.

yields

if the 10 year yield in Japan continues to pop above 2%. It likely pushes the US 10 year north of 4.2%. Sees a global 'rising tide' in bond yields lifting US rates, driven by Japanese yield rise and potential hawkish Fed.

yields

I think it's going three and a half to four. And I think the key will be maintaining stability in and around three and a half to four Current 10-year at 4.1%; expects Fed to cut toward 3% funds rate; stability at 3.5-4% would bring mortgage rates to mid-high 5s, supporting housing and economy.

metals

Gold long term is fine... I think gold and silver need to consolidate... then reassert their price dominance into 2030... The chart looks like long-term it wants to go to 10,000. Gold is remonetized (Basel 3), central banks are buying, it's a hedge against the end of the sovereign debt super-cycle and fiat money crisis. Short-term consolidation is expected before a longer-term rise.

yields

I think these back up in rates are only temporary. I think once we start to see the true teeth of the economic problems we face we're going to see the long end respond lower... The long end will come down but it'll be painful when it comes down. Based on his thesis of a coming worldwide economic recession, housing downturn, and credit crisis, which will lead to slowing growth and disinflation, forcing yields lower.

yields

Our team thinks the Fed gets down to about a 3% Fed funds rate. The ten year rates, it's in for a quarter of four and a half, and that's a more normal rate structure for the United States. The interviewee explicitly states his team's forecast for the Fed funds rate to decline to 3% and for the 10-year yield to be around 4.5%. This implies a downward direction for yields from current levels, framed as a move to a 'more normal rate structure'. The tone is not aggressive ('cautious'), and the timeframe is implied to be longer-term ('longer term'), which maps to 'medium'.

dxy

we are of the view that that dollar depreciation still has scope in 2026. Believes dollar will depreciate as part of developed markets embracing EM playbook and due to supportive factors for emerging market debt.

ndx

heading into next year, we still remain quite constructive, looking across the US equity space. And that's because we'll have a number of tailwinds come through, whether that's the fiscal impulse through deregulation, through this tax cuts coming through, the potential for another couple, one or two Fed rate cuts coming through. And as well, just as overall backdrop were financial conditions, continued to remain easy. Remains constructive on US equities despite current volatility, citing multiple tailwinds including fiscal stimulus, potential rate cuts, and easy financial conditions.

yields

we anticipate that that rate cut next week will likely mark just a pulling forward of one of those rate cuts for 2026. And we're still leaning towards a fairly gradual, cautious cutting cycle from the Fed with two more rate cuts through the middle of next year. Expects Fed to cut rates due to stabilization in labor market that doesn't warrant aggressive easing, with cut likely being precautionary insurance measure.

ndx

That's why we think Tech Stocks are up in the 20% next year. Thesis is based on early-stage AI adoption (only 3%), multi-trillion dollar spending cycle, strong software use case momentum, and US tech leadership in a global arms race.

dxy

the dollar weakness is a function... the dollar no longer warrants its very rich valuation... we think there is more to go in that... will keep the dollar on the back foot Fed easing, softer US data, less exceptional US economy vs other markets