dxy

Dollar strengthening again today as Euro heads toward 116, but with some risk of squeeze given consensus positioning. Dollar rally is under test and probably short lived given macro dynamics.

metals

American rare earth miners up 20-25%, critical metals also strongly up amid concerns over China's export controls. Market expects continued geopolitical tensions over rare earths boosting US miner stocks.

ndx

Nasdaq 100 futures are rebounding strongly after Friday's 3.5% decline, with tech stocks like Nvidia leading gains. Investors are buying the dip in tech stocks amidst mixed market sentiment.

yields

We saw a 10 basis point decline across the yield curve on Friday. The bond market is closed today but the test comes when it reopens. Politics and trade talks are influencing yields now. Market caution due to geopolitical risk and trade tensions, with uncertainty about whether the recent decline in yields will persist.

ndx

We think technology is one of the best places to be with the best earnings growth in the world today. The earnings revisions for technology have been the best, and technology profits are driving stocks here. Earnings growth in technology, especially in the US, is strong and is the main driver of equity performance in the short term.

metals

gold is going up due to inflation risks still here, trade war coming back, Chinese households buying significant amounts of gold via ETFs, and central banks divesting from US treasuries and buying gold instead Strong demand for gold is driven by persistent inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and price-insensitive buyers such as Chinese households and central banks increasing allocations to gold.

yields

there's more lift in inflation coming because of tariffs, lifting inflation because of the weaker dollar, if inflation is going up and we now start cutting too much, that of course raises the risk that the fed should not be talking about rate cuts, they should maybe even talk about rate hikes The market expects rate cuts from the dot plot, but the interviewee explicitly warns that inflation risks remain elevated due to tariffs and a weaker dollar, which could force the Fed to keep yields elevated or higher.

ndx

I expect one more move higher into year end with a target around 7000 for year-end 2025.

wti

Oil is at $59 and change; gasoline futures have made new lows. Lower oil prices are part of the stimulus, but the question is how stocks respond to that.

yields

The big question is rates. Our story is to watch for a low level where bond yields actually start to signal that the economy may be weakening in a big way. 3.85% on ten-year yields was the low in April. Below 3.85%, the messaging on the economy is worrying into 2026.

wti

I mean, big move today in oil. I think it's reflecting a view in the market that this peace deal means that people can de-risk the Middle East, de-risk geopolitical turmoil for oil.

metals

Investors stampeding into gold, silver, and Bitcoin as part of the debasement trade; silver newly entering discussion with strong momentum; expectation of weakening US dollar supports metals. Amid economic uncertainty, currency debasement concerns drive strong inflows into precious metals in the short term as hedges.

yields

The Fed is likely to cut once more this year, possibly fewer cuts in December depending on incoming data, with risk management guiding policy given the lack of government data. The Fed is cautious, reactive to limited data, focused on labor market deterioration to decide on rate cuts; uncertainty and data dependency imply a cautious downward pressure on yields over the medium term.

metals

I think stablecoins, including tether, maybe one of the largest buyers of gold today. That corresponds with gold essentially going up every day and gold going up to a new high. Gold’s rally is being driven by demand tied to stablecoins like Tether, which need to back gold holdings, thus supporting prices despite broader market conditions.

ndx

I think the sell off Friday is giving us a bit of a gift because that surge in the VIX 32% rise is the 39th highest ever one day surge, and the one month median return is almost 3% of the 38 other instances. So I think the S&P could add 200 points between today and mid November. Positive tailwinds include US dominance in AI and blockchain initiatives, valuations like Nvidia being cheaper on a forward PE basis than traditional retailers, and interest rates coming down acting as an elixir for stocks. Despite recent volatility, a lot of good news is not yet priced in and investors remain reluctant on the sidelines.

dxy

The dollar has its best week in about a year, up about 1.5%. Dollar rebound driven by weakness in euro and yen.

metals

Gold up about 50% year to date. Central banks like China and India are buying gold aggressively, showing strong demand which is driving prices higher.

wti

Oil prices are easing after the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

metals

Gold got another bid. The yellow metal has been on a record tear. It moved about 1% higher as well. Increased market uncertainty and flight to safety typically boost precious metals prices such as gold in the short term.

ndx

I think the narrative of this tariff volatility and uncertainty is bad news for the whole space. You will bring back a lot more volatility into the markets. I think there will be concerns on both sides. Trade tensions and tariff-related volatility contribute to significant downward pressure and increased volatility on equity markets like the Nasdaq100.

yields

Traders really piling into treasuries as you say. Gold got another bid. Tariff volatility and uncertainty leads to increased market concerns driving investors to safer assets like treasuries, pushing yields sharply down in the short term.

metals

central banks increasing gold holdings; debasement trade and diversification driving metals; copper up nearly 25% year to date; supply disruptions in major mines; strong demand from AI, defense, and electrification creating a perfect storm; market deficit and potential for more upside.

wti

crude has been under pressure for over a year; large supply glut has not impacted prices; physical markets remain tight; refining margins near all-time highs; oil inventories unlikely to increase as economics favor burning, not storing oil.

metals

Gold rally started in 2022 with central banks buying gold, Fed cutting rates, and investors piling in, all supporting gold's strong price gains.

metals

silver has been setting a record setting rally here this year and it's taking out the gold market here and there are a number of reasons for this further outperformance and expectations for further outperformance in the silver market

wti

crude oil market starting to break and look like it could possibly on the front month break below that $60 mark here

ndx

WE'RE LOOKING FOR, SAIRA, ABOUT 7%, 8% IN THE THIRD QUARTER... COMPANIES CAN BEAT EARNINGS AGAIN, PROBABLY PRINT IN THE LOW DOUBLE DIGITS... THE LEADER IS GOING TO BE TECH STOCKS... TECH HAS BEEN THE DRIVER OF U.S. EQUITIES FOR MANY YEARS NOW... THE ODDS ARE IN YOUR FAVOR FOR THIS RALLY TO CONTINUE

dxy

The transcript states the dollar is "set for its best week in almost a year” and is performing strongly, described as an "anti-consensus trade" with strength for the greenback ongoing.

metals

gold and silver prices are at record levels and platinum and plating prices have risen very sharply; our outlook both on a short-term and on a long-term basis is that prices will continue to rise; prices might have short-term pullbacks but expected to be shallow

yields

We think short term interest rates are going to fall. Probably two more fed rate cuts this year, two more rate cuts next year. The short end of the yield curve is falling while the long end is steady or rising, leading to a steepening curve and signaling cautious downtrend in yields over medium term.

metals

I think people are looking for an alternative and getting a little too greedy at 4000. Historically, when gold gets this stretched, you should be cautious rather than greedy.

metals

The interviewee discusses how gold is rising sharply, driven by momentum, safe haven demand, and concerns around currency and debt, reflecting a strong upward move in metals.

metals

Gold is having its moment. More central banks globally are buying it. The dollar has been softening. There is this overhang of fiscal debt in the US that also supports the gold trade.

dxy

the overall weakening dollar... dollar has been strengthening recently in days but in general this year it has weakened a fair amount

metals

gold has been a huge beneficiary of that... real interest rates have come down. And that typically is a big support for gold prices

yields

the expectations that the fed is going to continue to ease here

wti

OIL PRICES HAVE RETREATED AS THERE'S COOLING TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. OIL IS DOWN 5/10 OF 1%.

metals

Gold prices climbed to about $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever; metals including copper massively outperformed; central banks diversifying into gold; gold is an excellent diversifier and safe haven asset.

metals

Ray Dalio explicitly states that gold is a strong diversifier and is performing well amid monetary and debt issues and compares current gold price moves to those in the early seventies, confirming gold (a metal) is sharply up in the short term.

yields

The interviewee expressed caution about cutting rates given the imbalances in debt and monetary policy's limited effectiveness, suggesting a cautious downtrend for yields.

ndx

We've talked about Nasdaq 24 to 25,000. That continues to sort of be our view. Still 2 to 3 years left in this tech bull market where we are in this AI cycle.

metals

Gold is at record highs... It's a life of its own, gold... central banks around the world... view gold as a safe harbor asset in a way that the dollar used to be viewed.

metals

He explicitly forecasted gold to continue a long-term secular bull market culminating around 2031 and noted silver starting to outperform gold and rising above $40, describing it as a high-beta play and a 'poor man's gold.'

yields

He indicated that with inflation expected to reaccelerate and economic growth faltering, the environment will likely lead to stagflation—a condition implying cautious downward pressure on yields as the economy slows.

ndx

I think these stocks go up a lot for one simple reason. The Fed's cutting rates... easy money drives everything up... easy money funds a lot of cash burning AI businesses. Could markets be up 20% this year and up even more next year to start? Sure.

yields

The Fed's cutting rates after being on hold for nine months, you're going to get another probably three cuts between now and January. And then you're probably going to get Steven Myron being the new head of the Federal Reserve in May. And he wants rates about a percent and a half lower than everybody else.

metals

Gold is at record highs, up 50% since the start of the year, Goldman Sachs raised its gold forecast to $4900 by December next year; interviewees note substantial asset inflation away from the dollar including gold acting as a safe haven asset

yields

We have seen of course in response to some of this longer term bond yields globally. I mean you're just coming into this week they were moving to the upside.

dxy

It means part of the reason the dollar's depreciated by about 10% in the first half of this year.

yields

We anticipate that there's probably two more cuts this year. ... We also think that they'll cut into 2026 as well. So the trajectory is for continued lower fed funds rate into 2026.

dxy

The dollar is having its worst year since the 1970s; policy intentions appear to be aimed at weakening the dollar due to debt concerns.

metals

Central banks have been adding gold reserves steadily since 2022; gold reserves value exceeded treasuries for the first time since 1996; three quarters of central banks plan to continue buying more gold over next five years.

metals

Gold is at record highs and is viewed as a safe harbor asset now, indicating rising metal prices.

ndx

We're forecasting about a 4% beat for the upcoming earnings season. ... Hence our target of 7200 by year end next year.

yields

it's a very pro inflationary environment and I think the markets are just way too calm about the prospects of a substantial move higher inflation

metals

Gold topping $400 an ounce for the first time ever and hitting another record high just this morning.

metals

Gold rising of 10% to 4300 by the end of next year with significant upside driven by central bank and ETF inflows; central banks remain underweight gold and are expected to continue rapid purchases for about three years; lower rates boost ETF holdings in gold markets.

wti

we have been bearish for a while ... we think we're probably get down to $60–61 a barrel on average for the quarter

ndx

We're still bullish on this market because the big underlying theme is we still have a lot of the Covid stimulus working its way through the economy, a multiplier effect... We have a fed lowering interest rates at a time when we're not in a recession. So it's kind of insurance cuts into growth... We're positive going into 2026 just because earnings earnings are at an all time high... So we think the market's going to be at an all time high... You're going to have some volatility... But we're definitely positive going into 2026.

yields

the Fed is probably more likely than not going to continue on their idea of insurance cuts. The cut in September was an insurance cut. They'll probably cut in October. Maybe we'll have data and things open by then. They'll make a decision in December. But we think that given everything that's going on, the Fed's going to continue to do quarter point cuts. So you can see 1 or 2 more in this year.

metals

gold continuing to hit record alltime highs. When you mention gold, we might as well note it just crossed above $4,000 for the first time.

yields

I actually see interest rates declining into 2026. I would not be surprised at some point if we're talking about a 10-year close to a 2% handle.

metals

Gold has been relentless and strong, with gold and silver both in uptrends and bullish;

yields

there are anticipations a majority of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee do foresee 1 or 2 more rate hikes this year

metals

We're expecting demand to grow by up to 70% by 2050. This has had a lot of support... we're pretty excited about the outlook for copper... The demand side seems pretty firm.

metals

Gold smashed through the $4000 barrier for the first time driven by uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown and was described as an unstoppable rally by interviewee Valerie Tytel.

ndx

we kind of melt up into the end of the year

metals

institutions are finding gold a lot more interesting; gold and silver could go higher; silver is a catch up trade; trends supporting precious metals (PMS) are going to continue