Luke Gromen discusses a potential Fed playbook of cutting short rates, selling long bonds, and deregulating banks to steepen the curve and absorb Treasury supply, effectively QE-through-banks. He sees gold/oil ratio suggesting failure of non-dollar oil war, expects eventual inflationary boom, and advises watching weaker dollar, higher stocks, lower 10y yields, higher gold and Bitcoin as confirmation. He believes stocks will rise in dollar terms but fall in gold terms over time.
implicit
explicit
implicit
explicit
implicit
gold-oil ratio (sharp up)
FFTT
7.0
Management Consulting
Luke Gromen 7.5
Management Consulting
Luke Gromen 7.5
6/18/2026 1:15:38 AM
dxy
Gromen says higher gold caps the dollar, and a weaker dollar is an indicator to watch. He also notes the Eurozone has a nuclear option to support the euro, which could pressure the dollar. Direction is cautiously down.
metals
Higher gold prices kept the cap on the dollar, kept the cap on 10-year Treasury yields. I would say higher gold.
| 5/14/2026 8:00:21 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.30% | -0.45% |
| 4/9/2026 8:01:03 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | -12.57% | -18.86% |
| 2/2/2026 8:00:26 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +4.98% | +7.47% |
| 1/12/2026 8:00:54 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -3.02% | -4.54% |
| 11/14/2025 8:00:54 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | +33.85% | +50.78% |
| 10/24/2025 8:00:10 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | +30.90% | +46.35% |
ndx
I think stocks are going to go up in dollar terms, continue to.
| 5/14/2026 8:00:21 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.59% | -0.30% |
| 2/2/2026 8:00:26 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | -2.49% | +2.49% |
rut
Gromen expects stocks to go up in dollar terms generally, and the Fed's playbook of deregulating banks and steepening the curve would particularly benefit smaller banks and domestic-focused companies, which are heavily represented in the Russell 2000.
wti
Gromen suggests the Hormuz conflict may be ending, which would allow oil to flow freely, putting downward pressure on WTI. However, he also notes the gold-oil ratio is rising, implying oil is not surging. Near-term sideways as the situation stabilizes.
yields
Gromen describes a Fed playbook to steepen the curve by selling long bonds, implying upward pressure on long-end yields. He also notes that if growth is inflationary, it drives higher rates. However, he expects the Fed to eventually control yields, so the direction is cautiously up in the medium term.
