“When it gets serious, you have to lie.”

7/28/2025 8:00:49 PM	medium term down	20 days later	-0.75%	+0.75%

1/12/2026 8:00:54 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	-3.02%	-4.54%
11/14/2025 8:00:54 PM	long term sharp up	60 days later	+33.85%	+50.78%
10/24/2025 8:00:10 PM	long term sharp up	60 days later	+30.90%	+46.35%

Luke Gromen

Gold was capped/managed for a long time to keep it from competing with US Treasuries as the global reserve asset. This was done via expansion of unallocated gold credit. The value of oil was kept in a $15-25 range from 1973-2003, creating a pseudo-peg of the dollar to oil to keep Treasuries as the primary reserve asset.

Luke Gromen

We are now seeing an unwind of this system, driven by geopolitics, the economic center shifting east, and weaponization of the dollar and Treasuries.

Luke Gromen

Global commodity and trade surpluses will increasingly bid for gold on the margin, redirecting flows away from US financial assets. The oil market alone is 3-4x bigger than the global gold market.

Luke Gromen

Gold is going back into the system as a reserve asset and rising in price. This means over time you will see a weaker dollar against creditor currencies (yuan, yen, euro, Swiss franc) as currencies reorder themselves around balance of payments and gold.

He notes the dollar has already fallen notably against the yuan despite tariffs, and the euro is rising despite worse fundamentals.

Luke Gromen

In a secular inflationary environment, long-term mortgages (30-year) disappear, replaced by shorter-term or floating-rate mortgages. This causes homes to be valued based on cash bids, not leveraged financing, leading to price declines in real terms.

Advises first-time home buyers to buy for quality of life/schools, not as a financial investment.

Luke Gromen

Bitcoin is trading as levered Nasdaq because it is overwhelmed by capital flows. Nasdaq itself is a capital flow phenomenon. As capital leaves the US, Bitcoin acts as a leveraged version of that dynamic.

Notes 40% of Bitcoin is owned by Americans, and as the world takes money out of America, Bitcoin suffers. For 60-80% of the world's population, gold is the proven safe haven during currency crises, not Bitcoin.

Luke Gromen

Chinese retail demand for gold is not a sign of domestic weakness or crisis. If China were in crisis, it would be selling gold (like Russia/Korea in 1998), not buying it. Their buying is a sign of strength, stability, and understanding of global debt dynamics.

Compares to America's Rust Belt, which has been a net seller of gold for 25 years during economic hardship.

Luke Gromen

The shift from tech/software to precious/base metals is not temporary; it will continue for at least the next couple of quarters.

If AI is a bubble, its burst is good for gold. If it's not a bubble, raw material inflation (copper, aluminum, labor as bottlenecks) is good for metals and gold. 'Only a fool owns bonds when metals inflation is running 10-15% or more per year.'

Luke Gromen

You can't look at equities in dollar terms in a vacuum; you must look in gold terms. Nasdaq is already down 45% vs gold since early 2024. He is not a broad equity bull here.

Advises putting at least some cash into gold bullion.

Luke Gromen

The 'Free Gold' concept has begun. Gold's price is being freed to absorb surpluses around energy/commodities instead of Treasuries. This implies much more upside for gold than people think.

Cites JP Morgan's $8,500 gold target as a significant, vetted statement.

Luke Gromen

Multiple six-sigma events indicate markets that were 'beach balls held underwater' are now being unleashed. We are in a currency system transition, as signaled by uniform statements from world leaders at Davos.

Luke Gromen

Policymaker statements should be discounted. The math dictates the US must devalue its debt. Trump's demand for lower rates is dollar-negative and inflationary, as it's necessary to sustain the debt.

Quotes Jean-Claude Juncker: 'When it gets serious, you have to lie.'

Luke Gromen

A weaker dollar is good for Brazil (EWZ). Multi-currency commodity pricing with net gold settlement benefits commodity producers like Brazil.

Notes Brazil announced issuing debt in dollars, euro, and yuan, and its central bank increased gold holdings by 33% in Q4.

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