If the answer to either of those questions is no, then the top in gold is not in. I think it's going over 100 barrels an ounce over time. Structural shift away from dollar as reserve asset, gold becoming new neutral reserve asset, need to devalue debt via gold appreciation.

If shale production rolls over I think you'll see the gold to oil ratio rise even faster. because ultimately that would probably be good for oil prices on the margin. Shale production rolling over supports oil prices, but oil over $85 breaks Treasury market creating policy response ceiling.

In my opinion, you still need to keep long-term Treasury yields capped. presumably we kind of get more of what we've been getting which is shifting to the short end by treasury buybacks. Government will intervene to control yields to prevent debt spiral, especially if oil spikes trigger yield spikes; policy aims to cap long-term yields.