Hugh Kimber from JPMorgan AM expects the Fed to stay on hold through the year, with Warsh likely to say very little and avoid forward guidance. He sees value in European stocks, particularly consumer cyclicals and banks, as the energy shock fades. He believes the broadening out of markets strengthens the case for regional diversification away from US tech.

Mark Cudmore sees a risk that Warsh sounds less hawkish than expected, which would support risk assets short-term. He hates the market at current valuations (citing SpaceX) but cannot be bearish without a clear catalyst. The Iran deal is not fully priced; if signed, it gives another boost to stocks. If it fails, it's a disaster for risk assets.

Christine Kobi-Nielsen from Danske Bank argues that the Fed will not turn dovish despite falling oil prices, as underlying US inflation remains sticky. She expects the Fed to remove its easing bias and maintain a hawkish hold. She recommends buying the dollar, expecting EUR/USD to move lower. On the UK, she sees one more rate hike from the BoE but believes the market will eventually price out hikes, especially if energy prices fall further.

Skyler Montgomery Kearney expects a low bar for a Fed surprise given it's Warsh's first meeting. She notes AI is inflationary in the short term due to commodity demand. On UK assets, she is relatively positive on the pound due to high carry and low commodity correlation. She warns that services inflation is more worrying for gilts than fiscal slippage.

Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK, argues the Makerfield by-election is neck-and-neck between Labour's Andy Burnham and Reform. He warns of a Labour leadership challenge if Burnham wins. On fiscal policy, he says borrowing is out of control and the UK needs to cut wasteful spending and regulation to trigger growth, then deliver performance-related tax cuts.