Skyler Montgomery Kearney expects a low bar for a Fed surprise given it's Warsh's first meeting. She notes AI is inflationary in the short term due to commodity demand. On UK assets, she is relatively positive on the pound due to high carry and low commodity correlation. She warns that services inflation is more worrying for gilts than fiscal slippage.
explicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
implicit
Bloomberg
7.0
Financial Media
Skyler Montgomery Kearney 5.0
Financial Media
Skyler Montgomery Kearney 5.0
6/17/2026 1:55:23 PM
dxy
The Fed is expected to leave the door open for tightening, which supports the dollar, but the market has already shifted. A low bar for a hawkish surprise limits upside.
yields
The worry is that you're going to get some members voting for hikes. That's the preoccupation now, particularly for the long end.
| 6/3/2026 11:19:38 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.14% | +1.14% |
| 6/3/2026 2:30:02 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.14% | +1.14% |
| 6/3/2026 8:32:54 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.14% | +0.57% |
| 6/2/2026 12:01:38 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.36% | +1.36% |
| 6/1/2026 5:46:26 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +2.18% | +2.18% |
| 5/30/2026 2:06:01 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +1.72% | +1.72% |
| 5/29/2026 6:24:16 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +1.72% | +1.72% |
| 5/28/2026 10:34:44 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.85% | +0.85% |
| 5/26/2026 6:15:06 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.13% | -0.13% |
| 5/26/2026 2:13:56 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.13% | -0.13% |
| 5/26/2026 10:05:40 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.13% | -0.13% |
| 5/25/2026 9:57:20 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.40% | -0.40% |
| 5/21/2026 9:08:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/21/2026 10:34:29 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/21/2026 12:32:31 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -1.04% |
| 5/20/2026 12:04:34 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -3.04% |
| 5/20/2026 10:29:52 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -3.04% |
| 5/20/2026 9:05:17 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -2.03% |
| 5/20/2026 1:12:47 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -2.03% |
| 5/20/2026 1:11:21 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.03% | -2.03% |
| 5/19/2026 8:42:26 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.96% | -0.96% |
| 5/19/2026 12:24:52 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -0.96% | -0.96% |
| 5/18/2026 11:32:06 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -2.46% | -2.46% |
| 5/14/2026 10:22:14 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -2.57% | -2.57% |
| 5/14/2026 8:48:58 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.50% |
| 5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.67% | +0.67% |
| 5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +4.62% |
| 5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.67% | +0.67% |
| 5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +2.31% |
| 5/13/2026 7:39:00 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.62% | +4.62% |
| 5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.17% | +3.17% |
| 5/12/2026 2:49:50 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.17% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.59% | +3.59% |
| 5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.27% | +0.27% |
| 5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.59% | +3.59% |
| 5/11/2026 10:33:48 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.59% | +3.59% |
| 5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.59% | +3.59% |
| 5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.27% | -0.27% |
| 5/8/2026 11:45:15 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +1.47% | +1.47% |
| 5/8/2026 10:34:17 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +1.47% | +1.47% |
| 5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +4.83% | +4.83% |
| 5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.09% | +2.09% |
| 5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.09% | +2.09% |
| 5/5/2026 10:43:29 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +1.24% |
| 5/5/2026 9:59:09 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +1.86% |
| 5/5/2026 6:19:06 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +1.86% |
| 5/1/2026 4:44:32 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/30/2026 2:14:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.50% |
| 4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.50% |
| 4/27/2026 7:39:37 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +2.11% | -2.11% |
| 4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.54% | +2.54% |
| 4/21/2026 4:08:13 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.98% | +0.98% |
| 4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +2.02% | -3.04% |
| 4/17/2026 12:08:37 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +3.76% | +1.88% |
| 4/15/2026 12:05:32 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.39% | +0.39% |
| 4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.14% | -0.14% |
| 4/10/2026 11:45:00 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.09% | -0.55% |
| 4/10/2026 11:41:57 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.09% | -0.55% |
| 4/9/2026 11:01:58 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.88% | +0.88% |
| 4/1/2026 11:17:06 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.70% | -0.70% |
| 4/1/2026 10:17:51 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.70% | -0.70% |
| 3/31/2026 10:09:41 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.37% | +0.37% |
| 3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.56% | +0.56% |
| 3/30/2026 10:29:13 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.56% | -0.56% |
| 3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.56% | -0.28% |
| 3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -0.16% | -0.24% |
| 3/27/2026 10:05:53 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.16% | -0.16% |
| 3/25/2026 10:19:55 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -3.03% | -3.03% |
| 3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.14% | -1.14% |
| 3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM | long term down | 60 days later | +5.17% | -5.17% |
| 3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.18% | +0.18% |
| 3/19/2026 8:12:15 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.43% | +1.43% |
| 3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +2.70% | -2.70% |
| 3/13/2026 4:40:53 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +2.73% | -1.36% |
| 3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +4.05% |
| 3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 3/11/2026 10:02:21 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +1.66% |
| 3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 3/3/2026 9:47:37 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.37% | +1.37% |
| 3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.37% | +1.37% |
| 2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM | medium term sharp down | 21 days later | +7.07% | -10.60% |
| 2/20/2026 5:23:54 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.47% | +0.47% |
| 2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.93% | -0.93% |
| 2/19/2026 2:30:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.93% | -0.93% |
| 2/19/2026 8:04:55 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.58% | +4.58% |
| 2/18/2026 11:17:07 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.26% | +1.63% |
| 2/18/2026 9:44:49 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.26% | +1.63% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -5.73% | -5.73% |
| 1/30/2026 10:19:09 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.80% | -1.80% |
| 1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.11% | +1.11% |
| 1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM | long term up | 60 days later | +2.00% | +2.00% |
| 1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.94% | -0.94% |
| 1/20/2026 3:56:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.49% | -3.74% |
| 1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.94% | -1.41% |
| 1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.34% | -0.67% |
| 12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.58% | +0.29% |
| 12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.85% | +0.85% |
| 12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/19/2025 8:37:44 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.36% | +0.36% |
| 12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.77% |
| 12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.77% | +0.77% |
| 12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.77% |
| 12/17/2025 7:04:39 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.53% | +0.27% |
| 12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.43% | -0.43% |
| 12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.03% | +1.03% |
| 12/11/2025 10:09:14 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.03% | -1.03% |
| 12/9/2025 10:56:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/9/2025 10:44:30 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.43% | +0.65% |
| 12/9/2025 6:08:48 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -0.82% | -1.22% |
| 12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.67% | -0.84% |
| 12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.60% | -0.60% |
| 12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +2.10% | -1.05% |
| 11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +1.86% | +0.93% |
| 11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.45% | -2.45% |
| 11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +3.78% | -3.78% |
| 11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.30% | +2.30% |
| 11/13/2025 1:46:53 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.96% | +0.48% |
| 11/12/2025 2:18:30 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.13% |
| 11/12/2025 10:01:21 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.40% |
| 11/12/2025 7:56:58 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.40% |
| 11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.67% | -0.84% |
| 11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.68% | +0.68% |
| 11/6/2025 2:13:19 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.68% | +0.68% |
| 11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.13% | -0.57% |
| 10/21/2025 10:46:09 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.22% | +4.22% |
| 10/8/2025 9:34:41 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.04% | +1.52% |
| 10/2/2025 3:40:39 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.12% |
| 10/2/2025 12:44:17 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.24% |
| 10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.95% | -0.48% |
| 9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.36% | -1.36% |
| 9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +0.51% | +0.25% |
| 9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +0.51% | +0.25% |
| 9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.05% | -0.05% |
| 9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +2.70% | -2.70% |
| 9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.18% |
| 9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.30% |
| 9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.30% |
| 9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.30% |
| 9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.15% |
| 9/3/2025 7:42:12 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -0.69% | -1.04% |
| 8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.13% | +1.57% |
| 8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -3.13% | -4.70% |
| 8/28/2025 1:17:57 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.38% | -0.19% |
| 8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.91% | -4.36% |
| 8/27/2025 10:15:27 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.11% | -1.56% |
| 8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.11% | -1.56% |
| 8/27/2025 2:10:17 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.66% | -0.83% |
| 8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.45% |
| 8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.49% | +0.24% |
| 8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.49% | +0.24% |
| 8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.17% | +2.58% |
| 8/15/2025 10:20:21 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.52% | -0.76% |
| 8/7/2025 6:34:17 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | -3.69% | -5.53% |
| 8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.26% | -0.63% |
| 8/4/2025 10:45:50 AM | short term sharp down | 6 days later | +1.84% | -2.75% |
| 7/22/2025 6:22:47 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.73% | -0.36% |
