Rates market is unhinged and disorderly, with yields biased higher short-term as the market reprices the Fed. The macro setup is a direct echo of 2007: rising yields, tight credit, and a seizing housing market. Risk assets are showing dangerous complacency, ignoring the credit stress, much like equities did until late '07. A significant downturn is brewing, with domestically-focused small caps (RUT) on the front line of the coming pain.
explicit
NDX
Oil
Metals
USD
Bloomberg
8.0
Financial Media
Michael McKenzie 4.0
Financial Media
Michael McKenzie 4.0
5/20/2026 1:12:47 AM
yields
The market has repriced the Fed to around 35 basis points of rate hikes by Q1 next year. Some say the market needs to price 50bp of hikes.
| 5/12/2026 7:38:15 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.17% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 10:33:48 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.59% | +3.59% |
| 5/6/2026 7:07:04 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.62% | -1.62% |
| 5/5/2026 10:43:29 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +1.24% |
| 5/5/2026 9:59:09 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +1.86% |
| 5/5/2026 6:19:06 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +1.86% |
| 4/30/2026 2:14:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.50% |
| 4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.50% |
| 4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.54% | +2.54% |
| 4/22/2026 12:50:22 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.72% | +0.72% |
| 4/21/2026 4:08:13 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.98% | +0.98% |
| 4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +2.02% | -3.04% |
| 4/15/2026 12:05:32 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.39% | +0.39% |
| 4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.14% | -0.14% |
| 4/10/2026 11:45:00 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.09% | -0.55% |
| 4/10/2026 11:41:57 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.09% | -0.55% |
| 4/9/2026 11:01:58 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.88% | +0.88% |
| 4/1/2026 11:17:06 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.70% | -0.70% |
| 4/1/2026 10:17:51 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.70% | -0.70% |
| 3/31/2026 10:09:41 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.37% | +0.37% |
| 3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.56% | +0.56% |
| 3/30/2026 10:29:13 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.56% | -0.56% |
| 3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.56% | -0.28% |
| 3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -0.16% | -0.24% |
| 3/27/2026 10:05:53 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.16% | -0.16% |
| 3/25/2026 10:19:55 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -3.03% | -3.03% |
| 3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.14% | -1.14% |
| 3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.18% | +0.18% |
| 3/19/2026 8:12:15 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.43% | +1.43% |
| 3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +2.70% | -2.70% |
| 3/13/2026 4:40:53 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +2.73% | -1.36% |
| 3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +4.05% |
| 3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 3/11/2026 10:02:21 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +1.66% |
| 3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 3/3/2026 9:47:37 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.37% | +1.37% |
| 3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.37% | +1.37% |
| 2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM | medium term sharp down | 21 days later | +7.07% | -10.60% |
| 2/20/2026 5:23:54 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.47% | +0.47% |
| 2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.93% | -0.93% |
| 2/19/2026 2:30:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.93% | -0.93% |
| 2/19/2026 8:04:55 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.58% | +4.58% |
| 2/18/2026 11:17:07 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.26% | +1.63% |
| 2/18/2026 9:44:49 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.26% | +1.63% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -5.73% | -5.73% |
| 1/30/2026 10:19:09 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.80% | -1.80% |
| 1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.11% | +1.11% |
| 1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM | long term up | 60 days later | +2.00% | +2.00% |
| 1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.94% | -0.94% |
| 1/20/2026 3:56:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.49% | -3.74% |
| 1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.94% | -1.41% |
| 1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.34% | -0.67% |
| 12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.58% | +0.29% |
| 12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.85% | +0.85% |
| 12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/19/2025 8:37:44 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.36% | +0.36% |
| 12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.77% |
| 12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.77% | +0.77% |
| 12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.77% |
| 12/17/2025 7:04:39 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.53% | +0.27% |
| 12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.43% | -0.43% |
| 12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.03% | +1.03% |
| 12/11/2025 10:09:14 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.03% | -1.03% |
| 12/9/2025 10:56:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/9/2025 10:44:30 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.43% | +0.65% |
| 12/9/2025 6:08:48 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -0.82% | -1.22% |
| 12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.67% | -0.84% |
| 12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.60% | -0.60% |
| 12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +2.10% | -1.05% |
| 11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +1.86% | +0.93% |
| 11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.45% | -2.45% |
| 11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +3.78% | -3.78% |
| 11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.30% | +2.30% |
| 11/13/2025 1:46:53 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.96% | +0.48% |
| 11/12/2025 2:18:30 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.13% |
| 11/12/2025 10:01:21 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.40% |
| 11/12/2025 7:56:58 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.40% |
| 11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.67% | -0.84% |
| 11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.68% | +0.68% |
| 11/6/2025 2:13:19 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.68% | +0.68% |
| 11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.13% | -0.57% |
| 10/21/2025 10:46:09 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.22% | +4.22% |
| 10/8/2025 9:34:41 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.04% | +1.52% |
| 10/2/2025 3:40:39 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.12% |
| 10/2/2025 12:44:17 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.24% |
| 10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.95% | -0.48% |
| 9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.36% | -1.36% |
| 9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +0.51% | +0.25% |
| 9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +0.51% | +0.25% |
| 9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.05% | -0.05% |
| 9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +2.70% | -2.70% |
| 9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.18% |
| 9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.30% |
| 9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.30% |
| 9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.30% |
| 9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.15% |
| 9/3/2025 7:42:12 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -0.69% | -1.04% |
| 8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.13% | +1.57% |
| 8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -3.13% | -4.70% |
| 8/28/2025 1:17:57 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.38% | -0.19% |
| 8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.91% | -4.36% |
| 8/27/2025 10:15:27 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.11% | -1.56% |
| 8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.11% | -1.56% |
| 8/27/2025 2:10:17 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.66% | -0.83% |
| 8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.45% |
| 8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.49% | +0.24% |
| 8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.49% | +0.24% |
| 8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.17% | +2.58% |
| 8/15/2025 10:20:21 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.52% | -0.76% |
| 8/7/2025 6:34:17 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | -3.69% | -5.53% |
| 8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.26% | -0.63% |
| 8/4/2025 10:45:50 AM | short term sharp down | 6 days later | +1.84% | -2.75% |
| 7/22/2025 6:22:47 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.73% | -0.36% |
