Outlook 2026: Mike McGlone on Bitcoin's $10k Risk, Gold Volatility & The ‘Great Reversion’

explicit

RUT

explicit

implicit

Bloomberg 8.0
Financial Media
Mike McGlone .0

Outlook 2026: Mike McGlone on Bitcoin's $10k Risk, Gold Volatility & The ‘Great Reversion’

metals

Gold could see both $5,000 and $3,500. It's unlikely to stay above $5,000.

12/1/2025 1:30:08 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+10.54%	+10.54%
11/24/2025 10:10:50 AM	long term up	62 days later	+50.41%	+50.41%
11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-4.54%	-6.81%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM	short term up	5 days later	-4.54%	-4.54%
11/11/2025 10:07:03 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-4.54%	-6.81%
11/10/2025 2:14:07 PM	short term up	6 days later	-2.26%	-2.26%
10/22/2025 11:01:29 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	-3.73%	+5.60%
10/22/2025 10:20:48 AM	short term sharp down	5 days later	-3.73%	+5.60%
10/21/2025 9:16:26 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-3.09%	+1.55%
10/20/2025 6:00:17 PM	short term up	6 days later	-2.71%	-2.71%
10/8/2025 9:39:08 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+4.31%	-2.16%
10/8/2025 1:58:52 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+4.31%	+6.47%
10/7/2025 5:54:39 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+2.72%	+4.07%
10/2/2025 12:01:12 PM	short term up	5 days later	+4.07%	+4.07%
10/1/2025 10:25:13 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+3.05%	+4.58%
10/1/2025 3:37:28 PM	short term up	5 days later	+3.05%	+3.05%
10/1/2025 8:12:58 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+3.05%	+4.58%
9/29/2025 10:23:48 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+13.19%	+19.78%
9/24/2025 12:53:15 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+2.86%	+4.29%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM	short term up	7 days later	+3.81%	+3.81%
9/8/2025 11:19:17 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+2.35%	+3.53%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM	short term up	7 days later	+1.91%	+1.91%
9/2/2025 8:43:37 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+1.32%	+1.98%
8/18/2025 11:31:36 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+9.56%	+14.34%
8/18/2025 11:10:24 PM	short term down	6 days later	+1.94%	-1.94%
8/14/2025 11:46:57 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.09%	-0.09%
8/11/2025 9:25:03 PM	short term up	6 days later	-0.16%	-0.16%
8/11/2025 10:07:32 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-0.16%	+0.08%
8/8/2025 8:23:48 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	-0.25%	-0.38%

Show all metals results

ndx

My base case is the S&P 500 will have its third down year since 2008 in 2026.

12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.22%	-0.61%
12/17/2025 11:36:40 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+2.27%	-1.14%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM	short term up	5 days later	+3.30%	+3.30%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-2.18%	-1.09%
12/10/2025 11:45:39 PM	short term up	5 days later	-2.16%	-2.16%
12/1/2025 2:08:24 PM	short term down	6 days later	+0.28%	-0.28%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM	long term up	60 days later	+0.83%	+0.83%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.42%	+0.42%
11/25/2025 4:59:14 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.42%	-0.21%
11/25/2025 5:18:20 AM	short term up	5 days later	+0.42%	+0.42%
11/24/2025 11:41:23 PM	short term up	6 days later	+1.30%	+1.30%
11/21/2025 1:49:16 PM	short term down	7 days later	+1.89%	-1.89%
11/21/2025 10:59:48 AM	short term down	7 days later	+1.89%	-1.89%
11/19/2025 1:40:42 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+4.01%	-2.00%
11/19/2025 1:30:46 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+4.01%	-2.00%
11/18/2025 1:29:07 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.95%	-0.47%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM	short term down	5 days later	+0.95%	-0.95%
11/11/2025 7:51:50 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.81%	+1.41%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.81%	+1.41%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.81%	+1.41%
11/11/2025 1:10:20 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-2.81%	-1.41%
11/11/2025 10:07:03 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-2.81%	-1.41%
11/10/2025 2:14:07 PM	short term up	6 days later	-2.87%	-2.87%
11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM	short term up	6 days later	-2.87%	-2.87%
11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM	short term up	6 days later	-2.87%	-2.87%
11/7/2025 10:12:11 AM	short term down	7 days later	-3.17%	+3.17%
11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM	short term down	5 days later	+1.83%	-1.83%
11/5/2025 5:35:23 AM	short term down	5 days later	+1.61%	-1.61%
11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.03%	+0.03%
10/27/2025 7:25:44 AM	short term up	6 days later	-0.15%	-0.15%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM	short term up	5 days later	+1.42%	+1.42%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM	short term up	5 days later	+1.42%	+1.42%
10/1/2025 10:25:13 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.21%	+0.21%
9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM	short term down	7 days later	+1.49%	-1.49%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM	short term up	7 days later	-0.60%	-0.60%
9/19/2025 8:51:38 AM	short term up	7 days later	-0.60%	-0.60%
9/19/2025 7:17:12 AM	short term up	7 days later	-0.60%	-0.60%
9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM	short term up	7 days later	+1.92%	+1.92%
9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.55%	+0.55%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+1.17%	+1.76%
9/4/2025 9:41:48 AM	short term up	5 days later	+0.83%	+0.83%
9/3/2025 12:19:28 AM	short term up	5 days later	+0.88%	+0.88%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM	short term up	6 days later	+2.29%	+2.29%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM	short term up	6 days later	+2.29%	+2.29%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-+0.00%	+0.00%
8/27/2025 1:15:21 AM	short term up	5 days later	-1.99%	-1.99%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM	short term up	7 days later	-1.25%	-1.25%
8/21/2025 7:19:44 AM	short term down	5 days later	+0.29%	-0.29%
8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM	short term down	5 days later	+1.65%	-1.65%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM	short term down	5 days later	+1.65%	-1.65%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM	short term down	5 days later	+1.65%	-1.65%
8/12/2025 8:37:14 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.57%	+0.28%
8/7/2025 9:54:40 AM	short term up	5 days later	+1.01%	+1.01%
8/5/2025 10:31:22 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.91%	-0.45%
7/25/2025 12:39:07 PM	short term up	7 days later	-0.72%	-0.72%
7/16/2025 9:14:41 AM	short term up	5 days later	-0.08%	-0.08%

Show all ndx results

wti

Under. It's going to $40.

12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+2.98%	+1.49%
12/17/2025 2:09:01 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+3.97%	-1.99%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+3.70%	-5.55%
12/16/2025 11:22:24 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	+2.13%	-3.19%
11/24/2025 10:29:53 AM	long term cautious down	62 days later	+4.62%	-2.31%
10/23/2025 2:05:44 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-1.66%	-2.49%
10/22/2025 11:01:29 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.65%	+1.33%
10/21/2025 9:16:26 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+4.80%	-2.40%
10/20/2025 6:00:17 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+6.04%	-3.02%
9/30/2025 11:07:33 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.15%	+0.15%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.15%	+0.07%
9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-1.09%	+0.55%
9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM	short term down	6 days later	-1.09%	+1.09%
9/24/2025 7:52:42 AM	short term up	5 days later	-4.02%	-4.02%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM	short term down	7 days later	+1.29%	-1.29%
9/9/2025 8:33:16 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.58%	-0.58%
9/8/2025 11:19:17 PM	short term up	6 days later	+1.07%	+1.07%
9/8/2025 11:11:54 AM	short term cautious up	6 days later	+1.07%	+0.53%
9/8/2025 8:18:05 AM	short term down	6 days later	+1.07%	-1.07%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM	short term down	7 days later	+1.67%	-1.67%
9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+1.91%	-0.96%
9/4/2025 11:19:15 AM	short term down	5 days later	+2.91%	-2.91%
8/18/2025 11:10:24 PM	short term up	6 days later	+3.93%	+3.93%
8/15/2025 11:21:59 PM	short term down	7 days later	+2.18%	-2.18%
8/14/2025 11:46:57 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.65%	+0.65%
8/11/2025 10:07:32 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.40%	-0.20%
8/8/2025 8:23:48 PM	short term down	7 days later	-0.84%	+0.84%
8/8/2025 10:13:14 AM	short term sharp down	7 days later	-0.84%	+1.27%
8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM	short term down	5 days later	-0.61%	+0.61%
8/4/2025 11:29:13 PM	short term down	6 days later	-1.84%	+1.84%
8/4/2025 9:08:09 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-1.84%	+0.92%

Show all wti results

yields

The 10-year yield at 4.14% is more likely to head towards China's 1.84%. It's going to drop below 3%.

12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.77%	+0.77%
12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM	medium term down	20 days later	+0.77%	-0.77%
12/17/2025 7:04:39 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.53%	+0.27%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.43%	-0.43%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM	short term down	5 days later	-1.03%	+1.03%
12/11/2025 10:09:14 AM	short term up	5 days later	-1.03%	-1.03%
12/9/2025 10:56:25 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.43%	+0.43%
12/9/2025 10:44:30 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+0.43%	+0.65%
12/9/2025 6:08:48 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	-0.82%	-1.22%
12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-1.67%	-0.84%
12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM	short term down	5 days later	+0.60%	-0.60%
12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+2.10%	-1.05%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+1.86%	+0.93%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM	short term down	5 days later	+2.45%	-2.45%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+3.78%	-3.78%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM	short term down	5 days later	-2.30%	+2.30%
11/13/2025 1:46:53 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.96%	+0.48%
11/12/2025 2:18:30 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.27%	-0.13%
11/12/2025 10:01:21 AM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+0.27%	-0.40%
11/12/2025 7:56:58 AM	short term sharp down	5 days later	+0.27%	-0.40%
11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.67%	-0.84%
11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.68%	+0.68%
11/6/2025 2:13:19 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.68%	+0.68%
11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-1.13%	-0.57%
10/21/2025 10:46:09 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+4.22%	+4.22%
10/8/2025 9:34:41 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-3.04%	+1.52%
10/2/2025 3:40:39 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.24%	-0.12%
10/2/2025 12:44:17 AM	short term down	5 days later	+0.24%	-0.24%
10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.95%	-0.48%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM	short term down	5 days later	+1.36%	-1.36%
9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+0.51%	+0.25%
9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+0.51%	+0.25%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM	short term up	7 days later	-0.05%	-0.05%
9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%
9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM	short term down	7 days later	+2.70%	-2.70%
9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.18%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.19%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM	short term down	7 days later	-0.30%	+0.30%
9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM	short term down	7 days later	-0.30%	+0.30%
9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM	short term down	7 days later	-0.30%	+0.30%
9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM	short term cautious down	7 days later	-0.30%	+0.15%
9/3/2025 7:42:12 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	-0.69%	-1.04%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.13%	+1.57%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	-3.13%	-4.70%
8/28/2025 1:17:57 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-0.38%	-0.19%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	-2.91%	-4.36%
8/27/2025 10:15:27 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.66%	+0.83%
8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-3.11%	-1.56%
8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-3.11%	-1.56%
8/27/2025 2:10:17 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.66%	-0.83%
8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.92%	-0.46%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM	short term down	7 days later	+0.45%	-0.45%
8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.66%	+0.83%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.66%	+0.83%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.49%	+0.24%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.49%	+0.24%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.17%	+2.58%
8/15/2025 10:20:21 AM	short term cautious up	7 days later	-1.52%	-0.76%
8/7/2025 6:34:17 PM	long term sharp up	60 days later	-3.69%	-5.53%
8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.26%	-0.63%
8/4/2025 10:45:50 AM	short term sharp down	6 days later	+1.84%	-2.75%
7/22/2025 6:22:47 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.73%	-0.36%

Show all yields results

Market looks fundamentally broken with S&P/NASDAQ at record highs while crude oil collapsed to $50s, gold above $4,300, and Bitcoin lagging - two distinct realities playing out.

Jeremy Saffron
The paper economy (S&P 500, NASDAQ) is at record highs pricing in a soft landing, while the physical economy (crude oil in the 50s, gold above $4,300) is pricing in a downturn. One of these realities must break in 2026.

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Gold up 65% and crude oil collapsing globally signals global recessionary trajectory. US stock market resilience is what I've been wrong about for too long.

World's most significant demand-pull economy has shut off ability for rest of world to export to US.
Mike McGlone

The resilience of the US stock market has been my biggest miss. Gold's 65% gain while crude oil collapses is a global recessionary trajectory. This divergence is 'frightening' and unprecedented.

The world's most significant demand-pull economy (US) has shut off the ability for the rest of the world to export to it.
Is the equity market wrong or just early?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Base case: third down year for S&P 500 total return next year since 2008. S&P 500 120-day volatility at 11% (lowest since 2017) will pop back to average 17%.

Stock market started declining versus peers in rest of world (MSCI World XUS index) but still going up in US while completely lagging metals.
Mike McGlone

My base case is the S&P 500 will have its third down year since 2008 in 2026. 120-day volatility at 11% is the lowest since 2017 and will pop back to the 17% average.

The next president inherits the most expensive stock market in history, similar to Herbert Hoover. The stock market is the economy now.
Mike McGlone

Ratio of S&P 500 divided by gold at 1.55 - same as peak in 1929. Stock market will continue going lower versus gold.

Every time in history when pivoted below that level (1973 after gold standard, 2008) were significant signs.
If the economy is strong, why is the Fed cutting? Is that the tell that something is breaking?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Normal 10-20% backup in US stock market would tumble dominoes for everything, particularly treasury yields. Stock market is the economy now.

If we get 10% decline, that's almost 25% in GDP given how stretched valuations are.
Mike McGlone

The S&P 500/gold ratio at 1.55 matches the 1929 peak. A pivot lower would signal a major shift. I expect the stock market to continue declining versus gold.

A 10% drop in the S&P 500 would be almost 25% in GDP terms. The Fed will ease a lot if that happens.
Mike McGlone

WTI crude oil normal bottom around $40. US now net exporter, not importer. Expect to see $40 WTI, $2 natural gas, $2 gasoline in 2026.

Made call too early in 2022 on way up. Every bottom since 2008 was when US was net importer.
How can oil be collapsing if we are in an AI boom with massive power consumption?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Key thing to make all normal cycles hit low price cures: little pickup in US stock market volatility, drop in market.

Alternative requires maintaining 11% volatility (lowest since 2017) plateau forever, which never happens.
Mike McGlone

Bitcoin has curse of backtest - best backtest in history coincided with biggest ETF launch in history, classic signs of peak.

From one cryptocurrency in 2009 to 28 million now - cryptocurrency supply go brrr, not money printer.
Mike McGlone

Electrically sensitive commodities like copper and silver are doing well, but crude oil is on a normal cycle to bottom around $40. US gasoline will likely go to $2/gallon.

The number one force for crude to get cheap is that it got too expensive in 2022. This is post-inflation deflation. A little pickup in stock market volatility will trigger it.
Global oil demand dropping implies a manufacturing recession, yet US GDP holds up. Can the US survive 2026 alone?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Bitcoin to gold ratio dropped from 40 to 20 (50% drop). Could drop to 10 (another 50%) next year.

Gold 90% above 60-month moving average - most since 1979-80, never been that stretched with stock market volatility this low.
Mike McGlone

I doubt it. We've reached the endgame of pumping up risk assets. A normal 10% correction in stocks will cause every central bank to ease. Core PPI at 2.6% should go back to 1%.

Cryptocurrencies have already figured this out by rolling over. The US stock market is 'Atlas Shrugged' holding up the world.
Mike McGlone

When you get parabolic rally in gold, key thing is booking profits. Gold's annual volatility 16% means first standard deviation move is $5,000 or $3,500 next year.

Example: silver this year running at highest velocity since 1979, but 1979 closed at $32 and this year's low was $28.
Bitcoin is lagging the NASDAQ. You've compared it to the 1929 stock market top. What breaks first?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Copper can easily get back to $4.50 if stock market has little backup. To stay above $5, stock market has to go up.

If S&P 500 has normal 20% correction, copper typically drops 30-40% easy.
Mike McGlone

Bitcoin has the 'curse of the backtest'. The best backtest in history coincided with the biggest ETF launch in history—classic peak signs. I'm very concerned about the Bitcoin/gold ratio dropping another 50%.

There were 1 cryptocurrency in 2009, now 28 million. Supply go burr. Gold is 90% above its 60-month moving average, the most since 1979/80, which signals a problem.
Mike McGlone

US Treasury bond yields more likely to head toward China's 1.84% than stay elevated. 10-year yield at 4% will drop below 3%.

Next catalyst is little backup in US stock market. Started in bond futures pit in 1988, been wrong on this for couple years.
Gold at $4,330, silver near $65. Is gold pricing in systemic stress beyond what equities acknowledge?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Dollar will continue following relative value of US stock market versus rest of world. US stock market underperforming peers means same for dollar.

S&P 500 divided by MSCI World XUS index and dollar index have been in same trade since 2009, both coming down this year.
Mike McGlone

Crude oil under $60, heading to $40. Gold could see both $5,000 and $3,500 next year but unlikely to stay above $5,000.

Bitcoin heading to $50,000 and eventually $10,000 if normal bear market in stocks. 10-year Treasury yield to 3% or lower.
Mike McGlone

When you get a parabolic rally like this, book some profits. Silver's velocity is the highest since 1979, but it closed that year at $32—same as this year's low. Be tactical.

Gold's annual volatility is 16%. A one standard deviation move from current levels is $5,000 or $3,500. Be very careful getting overweight long at these levels.
Asks if silver gets dragged down by copper in a deflationary industrial recession or flies as a monetary metal.

Jeremy Saffron
Should investors be ready for gold to drop to $3,500 before $5,000?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Silver is more an industrial metal ('devil's metal'). With China facing deflation (10-year yield at 1.84%) and crude oil/iron ore going down, industrial metals face headwinds.

The monetary metal is gold; central banks buy gold.
Mike McGlone

Yes. Gold's annual volatility is 16%. A first standard deviation move is $5,000 or $3,500. Volatility will be key in 2026—great for traders, not buy-and-hold.

Never hurts to skim some profits. Michael Saylor doubling down on Bitcoin is the opposite of what you should do.
Asks the dominant driver for copper heading lower in 2026.

Jeremy Saffron
If we're heading into a deflationary industrial recession, does silver get dragged down by copper or fly as a monetary metal?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Silver is called the 'devil's metal' for a reason. It's more of an industrial metal. China's 10-year yield at 1.84% signals severe deflation, which will drag on silver and industrial metals.

Iron ore and crude oil are going down. That's deflationary.
Mike McGlone

The elephant in the room is beta—the US stock market (S&P 500). A normal 20% correction would cause copper to drop 30-40% easily. For copper to stay above $5, the stock market has to go up.

When stock market volatility is this low and likely to roll over, that's the #1 thing that matters for industrial metals.
Asks where to hide if his thesis is correct—long Treasuries, cash, or a specific sector.

Jeremy Saffron
Is copper's dominant driver China demand, global manufacturing, or mean reversion?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Repeats being wrong on Treasury yields but believes the 10-year yield (4.14%) is more likely to head towards China's 1.84%. The next catalyst is a backup in the US stock market. The only thing left is Treasury bonds.

Has jumped off the Bitcoin and gold 'horses' as they've become extreme; only Treasury bonds remain.
Mike McGlone

The dominant factor is beta to the US stock market. A 20% correction in the S&P 500 would drop copper 30-40% easily.

Supply constraints are not enduring once price pops up.
Asks if the dollar crashes or spikes in 2026 given Fed cuts.

Jeremy Saffron
Where do I hide in 2026? Long US treasuries, cash, or a specific sector?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

The dollar will follow the relative value of the US stock market vs. the rest of the world (S&P 500 / MSCI World ex-US). If US stocks underperform peers, the dollar will weaken. Wealthy managers are diversifying out of dollar assets.
Mike McGlone

The next big trade is US Treasury bonds. The 10-year yield at 4.14% is more likely to head towards China's 1.84%. I've been wrong on this for years, but the dominoes are aligning.

I've jumped off the Bitcoin horse and am somewhat jumping off the gold horse. The only thing I have left is Treasury bonds.
Does the dollar crash in 2026 or spike on flight to safety?

Jeremy Saffron
Seeks price target instincts for year-end 2026: Crude oil $60/barrel?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

The dollar will continue to follow the relative value of the US stock market vs the rest of the world. Both have come down this year. Diversification into gold or non-US assets is key.
Mike McGlone

Under. Heading to $40.
Gold at $5,000?

Jeremy Saffron
Lock in numbers: Crude oil $60 at year-end 2026—over or under?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Could see $5,000 and $3,500—wide ranges. Unlikely to stay above $5,000. Might meet the S&P 500 at 5,000.
Mike McGlone

Under. It's going to $40.
Bitcoin back to $100,000?

Jeremy Saffron
Gold at $5,000 at year-end 2026?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Going to $50,000 and eventually on its way to $10,000. If there's a normal bear market in stocks, Bitcoin gets to $10,000.
Mike McGlone

Gold could see both $5,000 and $3,500. It's unlikely to stay above $5,000. Maybe it meets the S&P 500 at $5,000.
Bitcoin back to $100,000?

Jeremy Saffron
US 10-year Treasury yield at 3%?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

I think it's going to $50,000 next year and eventually to $10,000. It will lop off a zero. If I'm right about a bear market, Bitcoin gets to $10,000.
Mike McGlone

Yes, or lower. Much more likely to go to 3% or lower than stay above 5%. A normal backup in US risk assets (stock market) will cause the long bond to drop.
US 10-year Treasury yield at 3%?

Jeremy Saffron
Mike McGlone

Yes, or lower. It's more likely to go to 3% or lower than stay above 5%. The long bond high at 5.15% was a key level from 25 years ago.

SignalTube