Michael McKenzie reports that the Treasury market is trading disorderly, with a selloff in futures pushing yields higher. He notes the market has repriced the Fed to price in rate hikes, and that a lot rests on how the Fed views data in early June. He draws parallels to 2007, warning that higher yields could pressure housing and corporate credit.

explicit

implicit
Oil
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Michael McKenzie 5.0
5/20/2026 1:11:21 AM
ndx
Michael McKenzie notes the market is 'trading disorderly' and 'unhinged', and draws parallels to 2007 when the stock market held for a while before a major downturn. This implies short-term volatility with downside risk.
5/20/2026 12:22:59 AM short term down 5 days later +2.19% -2.19%
5/14/2026 2:29:36 PM short term up 5 days later +0.59% +0.59%
5/14/2026 12:00:33 AM short term up 5 days later +0.59% +0.59%
5/13/2026 11:31:04 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 10:10:31 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 9:18:02 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 5:46:04 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.57% -1.29%
5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.57% +1.29%
5/12/2026 10:17:11 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 9:45:39 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 6:29:30 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 5:44:45 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 2:49:50 AM short term up 5 days later -1.27% -1.27%
5/11/2026 8:32:50 PM short term up 6 days later -0.24% -0.24%
5/11/2026 8:25:16 AM short term up 6 days later -0.24% -0.24%
5/8/2026 9:25:43 PM short term up 7 days later -1.11% -1.11%
5/8/2026 10:33:30 AM short term up 7 days later -1.11% -1.11%
5/8/2026 9:39:28 AM short term down 7 days later -1.11% +1.11%
5/8/2026 12:54:54 AM short term down 7 days later -1.11% +1.11%
5/7/2026 11:14:50 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.45% -0.23%
5/7/2026 9:26:20 PM short term down 5 days later +0.45% -0.45%
5/7/2026 10:44:12 AM short term up 5 days later +0.45% +0.45%
5/6/2026 4:25:04 PM short term up 5 days later +1.75% +1.75%
5/6/2026 7:07:04 AM short term up 5 days later +1.75% +1.75%
5/5/2026 12:24:00 AM short term down 5 days later +2.52% -2.52%
5/1/2026 4:44:32 PM short term up 7 days later +6.04% +6.04%
4/30/2026 11:53:22 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +3.21% +4.81%
4/30/2026 10:27:44 AM medium term up 20 days later +5.94% +5.94%
4/27/2026 9:40:13 AM short term up 6 days later +2.30% +2.30%
4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM medium term up 21 days later +6.18% +6.18%
4/22/2026 12:50:22 AM short term down 5 days later +0.92% -0.92%
3/19/2026 10:26:26 PM short term down 5 days later +1.11% -1.11%
3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -1.89% +0.95%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term down 6 days later -1.21% +1.21%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term down 6 days later -1.21% +1.21%
2/24/2026 7:11:54 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.17% +1.08%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term down 5 days later +1.27% -1.27%
2/11/2026 10:51:35 AM short term down 5 days later +0.06% -0.06%
2/5/2026 6:10:54 AM short term down 5 days later +0.50% -0.50%
1/29/2026 9:18:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.59% +1.29%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later -2.11% -2.11%
1/8/2026 11:03:52 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.17% +0.58%
1/8/2026 10:04:31 AM short term down 5 days later -1.17% +1.17%
12/24/2025 8:43:44 AM short term up 5 days later -1.54% -1.54%
12/24/2025 7:08:10 AM short term up 5 days later -1.54% -1.54%
12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM short term up 5 days later -0.51% -0.51%
12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM short term up 6 days later -0.24% -0.24%
12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -0.24% +0.12%
12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM short term up 7 days later +0.25% +0.25%
12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM short term up 7 days later +0.25% +0.25%
12/19/2025 1:45:14 AM medium term up 21 days later +1.28% +1.28%
12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM short term up 5 days later +1.22% +1.22%
12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM short term down 5 days later +1.22% -1.22%
12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.22% -0.61%
12/17/2025 11:36:40 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.27% -1.14%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term up 5 days later +3.30% +3.30%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.18% -1.09%
12/10/2025 11:45:39 PM short term up 5 days later -2.16% -2.16%
12/1/2025 2:08:24 PM short term down 6 days later +0.28% -0.28%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM long term up 60 days later +0.83% +0.83%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM short term up 5 days later +0.42% +0.42%
11/25/2025 4:59:14 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.42% -0.21%
11/25/2025 5:18:20 AM short term up 5 days later +0.42% +0.42%
11/24/2025 11:41:23 PM short term up 6 days later +1.30% +1.30%
11/21/2025 1:49:16 PM short term down 7 days later +1.89% -1.89%
11/21/2025 10:59:48 AM short term down 7 days later +1.89% -1.89%
11/19/2025 1:40:42 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.01% -2.00%
11/19/2025 1:30:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.01% -2.00%
11/18/2025 1:29:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.95% -0.47%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM short term down 5 days later +0.95% -0.95%
11/11/2025 7:51:50 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 1:10:20 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.81% -1.41%
11/11/2025 10:07:03 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.81% -1.41%
11/10/2025 2:14:07 PM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/7/2025 10:12:11 AM short term down 7 days later -3.17% +3.17%
11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM short term down 5 days later +1.83% -1.83%
11/5/2025 5:35:23 AM short term down 5 days later +1.61% -1.61%
11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM short term down 5 days later -0.03% +0.03%
10/27/2025 7:25:44 AM short term up 6 days later -0.15% -0.15%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM short term up 5 days later +1.42% +1.42%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM short term up 5 days later +1.42% +1.42%
10/1/2025 10:25:13 PM short term down 5 days later -0.21% +0.21%
9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM short term down 7 days later +1.49% -1.49%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/19/2025 8:51:38 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/19/2025 7:17:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM short term up 7 days later +1.92% +1.92%
9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM short term up 5 days later +0.55% +0.55%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.17% +1.76%
9/4/2025 9:41:48 AM short term up 5 days later +0.83% +0.83%
9/3/2025 12:19:28 AM short term up 5 days later +0.88% +0.88%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM short term up 6 days later +2.29% +2.29%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM short term up 6 days later +2.29% +2.29%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -+0.00% +0.00%
8/27/2025 1:15:21 AM short term up 5 days later -1.99% -1.99%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM short term up 7 days later -1.25% -1.25%
8/21/2025 7:19:44 AM short term down 5 days later +0.29% -0.29%
8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/12/2025 8:37:14 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.57% +0.28%
8/7/2025 9:54:40 AM short term up 5 days later +1.01% +1.01%
8/5/2025 10:31:22 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.91% -0.45%
7/25/2025 12:39:07 PM short term up 7 days later -0.72% -0.72%
7/16/2025 9:14:41 AM short term up 5 days later -0.08% -0.08%
Show all 109 ndx results
rut
Michael McKenzie draws parallels to 2007, warning that higher yields could pressure housing and corporate credit, which would negatively impact the broader economy and small-cap stocks (RUT).
5/7/2026 7:06:33 AM short term up 5 days later -0.60% -0.60%
4/30/2026 11:53:22 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +2.63% +3.94%
4/23/2026 11:26:18 PM short term down 5 days later -1.71% +1.71%
4/22/2026 12:50:22 AM short term down 5 days later -0.69% +0.69%
3/19/2026 10:26:26 PM short term up 5 days later +4.02% +4.02%
2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM medium term up 21 days later -6.09% -6.09%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term up 5 days later -0.02% -0.02%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later -0.24% -0.24%
12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM short term up 6 days later -0.84% -0.84%
12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM short term up 7 days later -1.52% -1.52%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term down 5 days later +2.67% -2.67%
12/15/2025 8:22:43 PM short term up 6 days later +1.57% +1.57%
Show all 12 rut results
yields
The market has repriced the Fed to price in 35 basis points of rate hikes by Q1 next year. Some say the market needs to price in 50 basis points of hikes.
5/14/2026 8:48:58 AM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +4.62% +2.31%
5/13/2026 7:39:00 AM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM short term up 5 days later +3.17% +3.17%
5/12/2026 2:49:50 AM short term up 5 days later +3.17% +3.17%
5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 10:33:48 AM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM short term up 7 days later +4.83% +4.83%
5/5/2026 10:43:29 AM short term up 5 days later +1.24% +1.24%
5/5/2026 9:59:09 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.24% +1.86%
5/5/2026 6:19:06 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.24% +1.86%
5/1/2026 4:44:32 PM short term up 7 days later -0.81% -0.81%
4/30/2026 2:14:39 PM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
4/27/2026 7:39:37 PM short term down 6 days later +2.11% -2.11%
4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM short term up 7 days later +2.54% +2.54%
4/21/2026 4:08:13 PM short term up 5 days later +0.98% +0.98%
4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM short term sharp down 7 days later +2.02% -3.04%
4/17/2026 12:08:37 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later +3.76% +1.88%
4/15/2026 12:05:32 AM short term down 5 days later -0.39% +0.39%
4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM short term up 6 days later -0.14% -0.14%
4/10/2026 11:45:00 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.09% -0.55%
4/10/2026 11:41:57 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.09% -0.55%
4/9/2026 11:01:58 PM short term up 5 days later -0.81% -0.81%
4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM short term down 7 days later -0.88% +0.88%
4/1/2026 11:17:06 AM short term down 5 days later +0.70% -0.70%
4/1/2026 10:17:51 AM short term down 5 days later +0.70% -0.70%
3/31/2026 10:09:41 AM short term up 5 days later +0.37% +0.37%
3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM short term up 6 days later +0.56% +0.56%
3/30/2026 10:29:13 AM short term down 6 days later +0.56% -0.56%
3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.56% -0.28%
3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -0.16% -0.24%
3/27/2026 10:05:53 AM medium term up 21 days later -2.12% -2.12%
3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM short term up 7 days later -0.16% -0.16%
3/25/2026 10:19:55 AM medium term up 20 days later -3.03% -3.03%
3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM short term up 6 days later -1.14% -1.14%
3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM long term down 60 days later +5.17% -5.17%
3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM short term up 7 days later +0.18% +0.18%
3/19/2026 8:12:15 PM short term down 5 days later -1.43% +1.43%
3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM short term down 7 days later +2.70% -2.70%
3/13/2026 4:40:53 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +2.73% -1.36%
3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +2.70% +4.05%
3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
3/11/2026 10:02:21 AM short term down 5 days later -1.66% +1.66%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term up 6 days later +2.03% +2.03%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term up 6 days later +2.03% +2.03%
3/3/2026 9:47:37 PM short term up 5 days later +1.37% +1.37%
3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM short term up 5 days later +1.37% +1.37%
2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM medium term sharp down 21 days later +7.07% -10.60%
2/20/2026 5:23:54 PM short term up 7 days later +0.47% +0.47%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term up 5 days later -0.93% -0.93%
2/19/2026 2:30:40 PM short term up 5 days later -0.93% -0.93%
2/19/2026 8:04:55 AM medium term up 20 days later +4.58% +4.58%
2/18/2026 11:17:07 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/18/2026 9:44:49 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM medium term up 20 days later -5.73% -5.73%
1/30/2026 10:19:09 AM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later +1.11% +1.11%
1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM long term up 60 days later +2.00% +2.00%
1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM short term up 5 days later -0.94% -0.94%
1/20/2026 3:56:13 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -2.49% -3.74%
1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.94% -1.41%
1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.34% -0.67%
12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.58% +0.29%
12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM medium term up 20 days later +0.85% +0.85%
12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM medium term up 21 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/19/2025 8:37:44 AM medium term up 21 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM short term down 5 days later -0.36% +0.36%
12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM medium term down 20 days later +0.77% -0.77%
12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.77% +0.77%
12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM medium term down 20 days later +0.77% -0.77%
12/17/2025 7:04:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.53% +0.27%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term down 5 days later +0.43% -0.43%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM short term down 5 days later -1.03% +1.03%
12/11/2025 10:09:14 AM short term up 5 days later -1.03% -1.03%
12/9/2025 10:56:25 PM short term up 5 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/9/2025 10:44:30 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.43% +0.65%
12/9/2025 6:08:48 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -0.82% -1.22%
12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.67% -0.84%
12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM short term down 5 days later +0.60% -0.60%
12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +2.10% -1.05%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +1.86% +0.93%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM short term down 5 days later +2.45% -2.45%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM medium term down 20 days later +3.78% -3.78%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM short term down 5 days later -2.30% +2.30%
11/13/2025 1:46:53 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.96% +0.48%
11/12/2025 2:18:30 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.27% -0.13%
11/12/2025 10:01:21 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.27% -0.40%
11/12/2025 7:56:58 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.27% -0.40%
11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.67% -0.84%
11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM short term down 5 days later -0.68% +0.68%
11/6/2025 2:13:19 PM short term down 5 days later -0.68% +0.68%
11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.13% -0.57%
10/21/2025 10:46:09 AM medium term up 20 days later +4.22% +4.22%
10/8/2025 9:34:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -3.04% +1.52%
10/2/2025 3:40:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.24% -0.12%
10/2/2025 12:44:17 AM short term down 5 days later +0.24% -0.24%
10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.95% -0.48%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM short term down 5 days later +1.36% -1.36%
9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.51% +0.25%
9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.51% +0.25%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.05% -0.05%
9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM short term down 7 days later +2.70% -2.70%
9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.18%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.30% +0.15%
9/3/2025 7:42:12 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -0.69% -1.04%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.13% +1.57%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -3.13% -4.70%
8/28/2025 1:17:57 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.38% -0.19%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -2.91% -4.36%
8/27/2025 10:15:27 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +1.66% +0.83%
8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.11% -1.56%
8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.11% -1.56%
8/27/2025 2:10:17 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.66% -0.83%
8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM short term down 7 days later +0.45% -0.45%
8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.66% +0.83%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.66% +0.83%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.49% +0.24%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.49% +0.24%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.17% +2.58%
8/15/2025 10:20:21 AM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.52% -0.76%
8/7/2025 6:34:17 PM long term sharp up 60 days later -3.69% -5.53%
8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.26% -0.63%
8/4/2025 10:45:50 AM short term sharp down 6 days later +1.84% -2.75%
7/22/2025 6:22:47 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.73% -0.36%
Show all 136 yields results

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