Mark Cranfield states that markets are assuming no return to military action in Iran, leading to a rotation into risk assets. The focus is shifting to catch-up trades in Chinese tech and managing a positive risk outlook, with bond curves being the main risk.
explicit
implicit
Oil
Metals
USD
Bloomberg
5.5
Financial Media
Mark Cranfield 7.5
Financial Media
Mark Cranfield 7.5
4/17/2026 12:08:37 PM
ndx
The market's benign reaction to TSMC earnings and the focus on rotation into tech suggests a cautiously positive outlook for the Nasdaq in the short term.
| 3/19/2026 10:26:26 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -1.11% |
| 3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.89% | +0.95% |
| 3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.21% | +1.21% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.21% | +1.21% |
| 2/24/2026 7:11:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -2.17% | +1.08% |
| 2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.27% | -1.27% |
| 2/11/2026 10:51:35 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.06% | -0.06% |
| 2/5/2026 6:10:54 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.50% | -0.50% |
| 1/29/2026 9:18:07 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.59% | +1.29% |
| 1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.11% | -2.11% |
| 1/8/2026 11:03:52 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.17% | +0.58% |
| 1/8/2026 10:04:31 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.17% | +1.17% |
| 12/24/2025 8:43:44 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.54% | -1.54% |
| 12/24/2025 7:08:10 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.54% | -1.54% |
| 12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.51% | -0.51% |
| 12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.24% | +0.12% |
| 12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.25% | +0.25% |
| 12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.25% | +0.25% |
| 12/19/2025 1:45:14 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +1.28% | +1.28% |
| 12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.22% | +1.22% |
| 12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.22% | -1.22% |
| 12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.22% | -0.61% |
| 12/17/2025 11:36:40 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.27% | -1.14% |
| 12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.30% | +3.30% |
| 12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -2.18% | -1.09% |
| 12/10/2025 11:45:39 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.16% | -2.16% |
| 12/1/2025 2:08:24 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.28% | -0.28% |
| 11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM | long term up | 60 days later | +0.83% | +0.83% |
| 11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.42% | +0.42% |
| 11/25/2025 4:59:14 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.42% | -0.21% |
| 11/25/2025 5:18:20 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.42% | +0.42% |
| 11/24/2025 11:41:23 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +1.30% | +1.30% |
| 11/21/2025 1:49:16 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.89% | -1.89% |
| 11/21/2025 10:59:48 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.89% | -1.89% |
| 11/19/2025 1:40:42 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +4.01% | -2.00% |
| 11/19/2025 1:30:46 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +4.01% | -2.00% |
| 11/18/2025 1:29:07 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.95% | -0.47% |
| 11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.95% | -0.95% |
| 11/11/2025 7:51:50 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.81% | +1.41% |
| 11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.81% | +1.41% |
| 11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.81% | +1.41% |
| 11/11/2025 1:10:20 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -2.81% | -1.41% |
| 11/11/2025 10:07:03 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -2.81% | -1.41% |
| 11/10/2025 2:14:07 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.87% | -2.87% |
| 11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.87% | -2.87% |
| 11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.87% | -2.87% |
| 11/7/2025 10:12:11 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -3.17% | +3.17% |
| 11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.83% | -1.83% |
| 11/5/2025 5:35:23 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.61% | -1.61% |
| 11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.03% | +0.03% |
| 10/27/2025 7:25:44 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.15% | -0.15% |
| 10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.42% | +1.42% |
| 10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.42% | +1.42% |
| 10/1/2025 10:25:13 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.21% | +0.21% |
| 9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.49% | -1.49% |
| 9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.60% | -0.60% |
| 9/19/2025 8:51:38 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.60% | -0.60% |
| 9/19/2025 7:17:12 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.60% | -0.60% |
| 9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +1.92% | +1.92% |
| 9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.55% | +0.55% |
| 9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +1.17% | +1.76% |
| 9/4/2025 9:41:48 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.83% | +0.83% |
| 9/3/2025 12:19:28 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.88% | +0.88% |
| 8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +2.29% | +2.29% |
| 8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +2.29% | +2.29% |
| 8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -+0.00% | +0.00% |
| 8/27/2025 1:15:21 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.99% | -1.99% |
| 8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.25% | -1.25% |
| 8/21/2025 7:19:44 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.29% | -0.29% |
| 8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.65% | -1.65% |
| 8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.65% | -1.65% |
| 8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.65% | -1.65% |
| 8/12/2025 8:37:14 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.57% | +0.28% |
| 8/7/2025 9:54:40 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.01% | +1.01% |
| 8/5/2025 10:31:22 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.91% | -0.45% |
| 7/25/2025 12:39:07 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.72% | -0.72% |
| 7/16/2025 9:14:41 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.08% | -0.08% |
rut
The rotation into catch-up trades and positive risk outlook implies a bullish view for small-cap indices like the Russell 2000.
| 3/19/2026 10:26:26 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.02% | +4.02% |
| 2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -6.09% | -6.09% |
| 2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.02% | -0.02% |
| 1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.84% | -0.84% |
| 12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.52% | -1.52% |
| 12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.67% | -2.67% |
| 12/15/2025 8:22:43 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +1.57% | +1.57% |
yields
The biggest risk is within bond curves. Inflation expectations have risen.
| 4/15/2026 12:05:32 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.39% | +0.39% |
| 4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.14% | -0.14% |
| 4/10/2026 11:45:00 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.09% | -0.55% |
| 4/10/2026 11:41:57 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.09% | -0.55% |
| 4/9/2026 11:01:58 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.88% | +0.88% |
| 4/1/2026 11:17:06 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.70% | -0.70% |
| 4/1/2026 10:17:51 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.70% | -0.70% |
| 3/31/2026 10:09:41 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.37% | +0.37% |
| 3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +0.56% | +0.56% |
| 3/30/2026 10:29:13 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +0.56% | -0.56% |
| 3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.56% | -0.28% |
| 3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -0.16% | -0.24% |
| 3/27/2026 10:05:53 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -2.12% | -2.12% |
| 3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.16% | -0.16% |
| 3/25/2026 10:19:55 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -3.03% | -3.03% |
| 3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.14% | -1.14% |
| 3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM | long term down | 60 days later | +5.17% | -5.17% |
| 3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.18% | +0.18% |
| 3/19/2026 8:12:15 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.43% | +1.43% |
| 3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +2.70% | -2.70% |
| 3/13/2026 4:40:53 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +2.73% | -1.36% |
| 3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +4.05% |
| 3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 3/11/2026 10:02:21 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +1.66% |
| 3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 3/3/2026 9:47:37 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.37% | +1.37% |
| 3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.37% | +1.37% |
| 2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM | medium term sharp down | 21 days later | +7.07% | -10.60% |
| 2/20/2026 5:23:54 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.47% | +0.47% |
| 2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.93% | -0.93% |
| 2/19/2026 2:30:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.93% | -0.93% |
| 2/19/2026 8:04:55 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.58% | +4.58% |
| 2/18/2026 11:17:07 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.26% | +1.63% |
| 2/18/2026 9:44:49 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +3.26% | +1.63% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -5.73% | -5.73% |
| 1/30/2026 10:19:09 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.80% | -1.80% |
| 1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.11% | +1.11% |
| 1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM | long term up | 60 days later | +2.00% | +2.00% |
| 1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.94% | -0.94% |
| 1/20/2026 3:56:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.49% | -3.74% |
| 1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -0.94% | -1.41% |
| 1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.34% | -0.67% |
| 12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.58% | +0.29% |
| 12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.85% | +0.85% |
| 12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/19/2025 8:37:44 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.36% | +0.36% |
| 12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.77% |
| 12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.77% | +0.77% |
| 12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +0.77% | -0.77% |
| 12/17/2025 7:04:39 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.53% | +0.27% |
| 12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.43% | -0.43% |
| 12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.03% | +1.03% |
| 12/11/2025 10:09:14 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.03% | -1.03% |
| 12/9/2025 10:56:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.43% | +0.43% |
| 12/9/2025 10:44:30 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.43% | +0.65% |
| 12/9/2025 6:08:48 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -0.82% | -1.22% |
| 12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.67% | -0.84% |
| 12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.60% | -0.60% |
| 12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +2.10% | -1.05% |
| 11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +1.86% | +0.93% |
| 11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.45% | -2.45% |
| 11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +3.78% | -3.78% |
| 11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.30% | +2.30% |
| 11/13/2025 1:46:53 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.96% | +0.48% |
| 11/12/2025 2:18:30 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.13% |
| 11/12/2025 10:01:21 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.40% |
| 11/12/2025 7:56:58 AM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +0.27% | -0.40% |
| 11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.67% | -0.84% |
| 11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.68% | +0.68% |
| 11/6/2025 2:13:19 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.68% | +0.68% |
| 11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.13% | -0.57% |
| 10/21/2025 10:46:09 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +4.22% | +4.22% |
| 10/8/2025 9:34:41 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -3.04% | +1.52% |
| 10/2/2025 3:40:39 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.12% |
| 10/2/2025 12:44:17 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.24% | -0.24% |
| 10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.95% | -0.48% |
| 9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.36% | -1.36% |
| 9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +0.51% | +0.25% |
| 9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +0.51% | +0.25% |
| 9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -0.05% | -0.05% |
| 9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +2.70% | -2.70% |
| 9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.18% |
| 9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.30% |
| 9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.30% |
| 9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.30% |
| 9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.30% | +0.15% |
| 9/3/2025 7:42:12 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -0.69% | -1.04% |
| 8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.13% | +1.57% |
| 8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -3.13% | -4.70% |
| 8/28/2025 1:17:57 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.38% | -0.19% |
| 8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.91% | -4.36% |
| 8/27/2025 10:15:27 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.11% | -1.56% |
| 8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.11% | -1.56% |
| 8/27/2025 2:10:17 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.66% | -0.83% |
| 8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.45% |
| 8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.66% | +0.83% |
| 8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.49% | +0.24% |
| 8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.49% | +0.24% |
| 8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.17% | +2.58% |
| 8/15/2025 10:20:21 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.52% | -0.76% |
| 8/7/2025 6:34:17 PM | long term sharp up | 60 days later | -3.69% | -5.53% |
| 8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.26% | -0.63% |
| 8/4/2025 10:45:50 AM | short term sharp down | 6 days later | +1.84% | -2.75% |
| 7/22/2025 6:22:47 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.73% | -0.36% |
