Precious metals rally on potential US-Iran deal and expectations of delayed rate hikes, with gold up 2.8% and silver up 5%. Dollar index drops below 100, 10-year yields break below 4.5%. Copper has structural support from power grid demand. Crude oil down 6% on Goldman Sachs forecast cut. Russell 2000 up 3.6% as midcaps lead.

Jim Thorne argues Canada faces a multi-year structural decline due to neglected competitive advantages, excessive real estate reliance, and incompetent policy, while the US economy will run hot on supply-side reforms, deregulation, and productivity gains. He recommends buying memory stocks (Micron) and Bitcoin on pullbacks, sees oil falling to $60, and expects a US-Iran deal that will lower yields.

Dan Williams, Bloomberg's Jerusalem reporter, explains Israel's deep dissatisfaction with the emerging Iran deal, which it sees as leaving Iran with residual nuclear and missile capabilities. He highlights Netanyahu's political vulnerability ahead of elections, as the deal falls short of his 'total victory' promise. Williams also notes Lebanon remains a major sticking point, with Israel unwilling to withdraw from its buffer zone, while Iran insists on a ceasefire covering all fronts.

A technical analyst demonstrates a head-and-shoulders pattern on July soybeans, explaining that the pattern only verifies after the neckline breaks with volume confirmation. The measured move target is projected below the neckline, which in this example targets near 1080.

Peter Boettke argues that declining support for capitalism among the young stems from presentism (no lived experience of socialism) and perceived cronyism. He emphasizes that economic progress requires secure property rights, contract, and consent to enable positive-sum exchange. He is an AI optimist (AGI skeptic), viewing AI as an augmenter of human judgment, not a replacement, and warns against regulatory overreach that could stifle productivity gains.

Dan Williams explains Israel is deeply unhappy with the emerging Iran deal, viewing it as leaving Iran with residual nuclear and missile capacity and empowering it. He notes Netanyahu faces a political liability ahead of elections, as the deal falls short of his 'total victory' promise. Lebanon remains a major sticking point, with Israel unwilling to withdraw from its buffer zone, while Iran insists on a ceasefire on all fronts including Hezbollah.

Oliver Sloup analyzes December corn futures, identifying $4.40 as a critical support level that held after new contract lows were made. He believes the market is 'priced to perfection,' leaving underpriced upside risk. A recovery rally requires consecutive closes above $4.45, with $4.70 as a key decision point (50% retracement). Growing season uncertainty could provide catalysts.

Eric Martin, a State Department reporter, assesses the Iran memorandum as a political starting point, not a detailed nuclear deal. He emphasizes the deal's vagueness on key terms (nuclear material, Strait reopening) is both a feature for domestic sales and a flaw risking future conflict. He notes the timeline is likely longer than 24 hours, with Pakistan, UAE, and Qatar playing intermediary roles, and Witkoff and Kushner leading US negotiations.

Ed Ludlow discusses SpaceX's record-breaking IPO, its $75B raise, and the company's vision to dominate space-based AI data centers. He highlights the IPO's unique structure (Musk set price, bypassed banks), the massive retail and institutional demand, and the speculative nature of the $28.5T addressable market. He notes that while the IPO will force passive flows into Nasdaq 100, the fundamental delivery risk (Starship reusability, satellite data centers) is extreme, making the 100x sales valuation highly speculative. He draws parallels to Tesla's trajectory but cautions SpaceX's path is far more uncertain.

Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures analyzes grain and livestock markets. Corn shows potential for a recovery rally from lows, with key resistance at 445 and 470. Soybeans and wheat are rangebound between moving averages. Livestock markets are mixed, with cattle consolidating and lean hogs heavily shorted, suggesting potential for a sharp reversal.

Goldman Sachs President John Waldron discusses the record M&A market, the historic SpaceX IPO, and the strong US economy. He sees healthy equity valuations supported by strong earnings growth, and expects a wave of IPOs. He also addresses AI token costs, the labor market impact, and Europe's need for more risk capital.

Jim Chanos is deeply skeptical of SpaceX's $2T+ valuation at ~110x revenues, calling the IPO 'hopes and dreams.' He highlights a last-minute pivot from AI software (XAI/Grok) to a lower-margin Neocloud leasing model, which he says is a finance business, not high-tech. He compares the AI capex boom to the 1999-2000 TMT bubble, warning of a massive equity supply wave in 2026 and an earnings mirage from capex capitalization. He advises being long the market and short overvalued names, noting insurance is cheap.

Jack Lew discusses the urgent need to address Social Security's impending funding shortfall (2032-2034), emphasizing that a 22% benefit cut is unacceptable. He argues for bipartisan action combining revenue increases (e.g., raising the earnings cap) and modest benefit adjustments with long lead times, warning that inaction threatens overall fiscal health and trust in government.

British millennials face a housing crisis: flats have lost value due to scandals, higher rates, and reduced buyer incentives, while houses continue to appreciate. This traps flat owners, making upsizing unaffordable amid political uncertainty.

UK had strong Q1 GDP growth (0.6% QoQ) but outlook is gloomy due to Iran war energy shock. Headline inflation revised up 1.5pp by early next year, causing real income squeeze. BOE expected to hold rates but vote split may widen with more members favoring hikes. Communications credibility at risk if they talk tough but don't act.

SpaceX's record-breaking $75B IPO surged 31% on debut, reaching a $2T market cap. The unprecedented demand, with $350B in orders and 1/3 of institutional bidders shut out, signals strong investor appetite for high-growth, AI-enabled tech stories and iconic founders like Elon Musk, despite SpaceX's $5B loss last year.

The UK economy faces a stagflationary shock from the Iran war. Energy costs will push headline inflation 1.5 percentage points higher by early next year, squeezing real incomes. The BOE is expected to hold rates but faces a credibility risk if it talks tough without acting. A rate hike may come in July.

Julie Biel discusses the massive scale of capital being absorbed by mega-IPOs and equity raises. She expresses concern that passive investing at its peak means blind buying without regard to valuation, adding market cap without earnings. She notes the unusual move by Google to do an equity raise (most expensive capital) when they're one of the best credits, suggesting it may be a competitive move to starve capital from upcoming IPOs. She also notes small-cap outperformance may be driven by lower-quality names.

Jim Chanos argues the SpaceX IPO and the broader 2026 surge in mega-IPOs represent supply meeting speculative demand, producing extreme valuations (~110x revenues) unsupported by current cash flows. He highlights that XAI's pivot to leasing capacity (neo-cloud) is a lower-margin, finance-like business, and that historically, equities priced so richly deliver poor returns. He prefers hedged exposure and shorting 'radioactive' companies.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright details how the US military is restoring oil flows from the Persian Gulf, diminishing Iran's leverage. He argues that Trump administration policies have kept energy prices lower than expected despite the conflict, and discusses the strategic goal of preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. He also touches on Venezuela, SPR refill, and the limitations of renewables for grid reliability.

Jim Bianco argues that interest rates should rise with a stronger economy and inflation, which is not inherently bad for equities. He expects a modest move higher in rates, but warns of a jump condition if the Fed appears dismissive of inflation or if crude oil prices spike sharply.

A volatile week driven by US-Iran headlines, with stocks recovering late. Nasdaq +2%, Russell 2000 new all-time high (+4%). Crude spiked to $95 then fell to mid-80s. Oracle fell 14% on debt concerns. SpaceX had record $2T IPO. Fed decision under Warsh next week.

SpaceX's historic $75B IPO drew massive demand, making Elon Musk the first trillionaire. The stock closed up 19% at $1611, with a $2.1T market cap. The IPO diverted investor attention from smaller space stocks, causing a broad decline in the space sector (Procure Space ETF down 7%, Virgin Galactic -32%). Other notable movers: Intel (+6.5%, up 25% for the week on BofA upgrade), Roku (+20% on sale talks), and Adobe (-6.8% on CFO departure). The software sector extended its losing streak to 9 sessions, the longest since 2006.

The panel discusses the successful SpaceX IPO, which saw a 19% gain on debut, and its polarizing effect on investors. The broader market was positive, with the Russell 2000 outperforming. Other notable movers include Intel (up 25% for the week) and Roku (up 20% on sale talks). The software sector continues to slump, with Adobe falling 6.8% on CFO departure. Yields ticked up slightly, while oil dropped on potential Iran deal talks.

The market closed broadly higher, led by the Russell 2000. The main event was SpaceX's historic IPO, which saw a 19% gain on debut but created a polarizing effect, drawing demand away from other space stocks. The software sector continued its slump, with Adobe falling on leadership changes. Yields ticked up slightly, and oil dropped on potential geopolitical developments.

James Chanos warns that the upcoming SpaceX IPO and record IPOs in 2026 signal a potential market bubble, similar to the late 1990s. He highlights SpaceX's pivot to a lower-valued neocloud model, its 110x revenue valuation, and the broader AI capex boom as key risks. He advises caution and notes that insurance (shorts) is cheap.

Camille de Cousel sees the ECB's July meeting as live but expects a move in September unless energy prices spike. She views the ECB's path as potentially more than two hikes, but not a full tightening cycle. For the Fed, she expects a move to symmetric bias next week, with three hikes starting December, and sees upside risks to yields across the curve.

BOJ Governor Ueda hospitalized for liver cyst infection, will miss the two-day meeting. Deputy will preside. Rate decision seen as a done deal but focus is on how hawkish the press conference will be and whether they telegraph another hike by year-end. Weak yen (160 vs USD) remains a key inflation driver. Fiscal response via extra budget to cushion energy costs is the focal point.

Public markets can absorb the wave of mega-IPOs and lock-up expiries (up to $700B), netting against buybacks ($1.5T) and M&A. The narrative is shifting from 'private forever' as AI companies need massive capital. Private markets will remain a representation of the real economy, while public markets will represent tech and AI disruption. Power is the bottleneck, with a focus on transmission and distribution, not just generation.

Konstantin Vite from PIMCO discusses the ECB's rate hike, expecting one or two more hikes but noting the backdrop is different from 2022. He sees the growth outlook as too optimistic and focuses on quality credit and periphery bonds. He finds fixed income attractive relative to equities.