There is some reason to think it's different: multiple US statements in last 48 hours, Iranian state media signals, European leaders talking. But it's likely an interim deal: 60-day ceasefire extension, opening strait, financial relief for Iran, cessation of US naval blockade. Nuclear elements are being parked.

The nuclear elements are the hardest part and the whole reason for the conflict.

For US: open strait, long-term agreement on no nuclear weapons, no uranium enrichment for 20 years with IAEA safeguards, no proxy sponsorship. For Iran: sanctions relief, unfreezing assets. Interim deal likely covers financial relief, opening strait, stopping blockade, and a framework for future nuclear talks.

Iran has been suffering economically, leading to protests. Lebanon/Hezbollah issue is a sticking point.

US cannot allow Iran to have nuclear weapons. It's unlikely to be part of this interim deal, but without it, Trump couldn't walk away from the conflict.

Iran is not a normal country; it pumps money into its nuclear program while its people suffer.

Both countries are feeling pressure. Iran's suffering is underreported due to internet blackout. Trump is under pressure from global community and midterms. Iran's regime is under pressure from damage and loss of life, but internal power centers complicate the deal.

Different power centers in Iran (political vs. IRGC) may have different agendas.

It's not clear if the strait is mined, but the threat alone disrupts shipping. Mine clearance could take weeks to months depending on number and type. US thinks there are safe routes hugging the Omani coast. Even after a deal, I would encourage ships to use those routes due to trust issues with Iran.

Countries like Italy and UK have pre-positioned mine clearance capabilities.