The key trade is front-running the new Fed regime under Warsh. Expect a dovish pivot masked by balance sheet shrinkage. He'll use statistical framing like "trimmed mean inflation" to justify rate cuts, sending yields lower and NDX higher. Ignore soft sentiment data; it's noise. The oil spike is a misread—the world is flush with crude. Once the temporary disruption premium evaporates, oil collapses, reinforcing the disinflationary narrative for the Fed's pivot.
implicit
implicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Federal Reserve
9.4
Central Bank
Kevin Warsh 9.0
Central Bank
Kevin Warsh 9.0
5/22/2026 4:30:38 PM
wti
The minute this disruption starts to dissipate or ends, I think crude oil is heading significantly lower.
| 5/12/2026 11:55:09 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/12/2026 8:03:12 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/7/2026 8:36:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/7/2026 8:22:54 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 4/30/2026 1:27:38 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -6.73% | -3.36% |
| 4/29/2026 9:59:50 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/29/2026 8:25:38 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -2.66% | -4.00% |
| 4/22/2026 1:15:04 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +4.26% | +6.38% |
| 4/21/2026 10:56:53 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/21/2026 10:53:54 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +5.50% |
| 4/21/2026 9:02:49 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.67% | +3.67% |
| 3/23/2026 3:29:56 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +7.29% |
| 3/23/2026 3:17:02 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +11.40% |
| 3/20/2026 5:36:27 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:29:36 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +12.42% | +12.42% |
| 3/19/2026 12:11:26 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -12.21% |
| 3/18/2026 11:29:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/18/2026 9:30:00 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -3.94% |
| 3/9/2026 4:35:07 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/5/2026 5:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/5/2026 4:38:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/23/2025 11:29:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.37% | -2.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.45% | +3.45% |
| 8/28/2025 10:35:20 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.06% | +0.06% |
| 8/20/2025 10:17:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.43% |
