explicit
implicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
implicit
Federal Reserve
9.4
Central Bank
Jerome Powell 9.5
Central Bank
Jerome Powell 9.5
3/18/2026 8:57:23 PM
wti
Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East.
The Fed explicitly cites a 'substantial rise in oil prices' as a current factor, attributing it to Middle East supply disruptions. This is a direct observation of a price increase that has already occurred and is impacting near-term inflation expectations.
| 3/9/2026 4:35:07 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/5/2026 5:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/5/2026 4:38:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/23/2025 11:29:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -2.37% | -2.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.45% | +3.45% |
| 8/28/2025 10:35:20 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.06% | +0.06% |
| 8/20/2025 10:17:30 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.43% | -0.43% |
yields
The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4% at the end of this year and 3.1% at the end of next year.
Projected policy rate cuts imply lower short-term yields. The Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down suggests a dovish tilt, which would put downward pressure on the longer end of the yield curve over the medium term.
| 3/5/2026 10:19:45 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +6.85% | -6.85% |
| 2/24/2026 5:28:52 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +3.80% | -1.90% |
| 1/31/2026 1:39:54 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.80% | +0.90% |
| 1/30/2026 4:06:49 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.80% | -1.80% |
| 1/21/2026 10:03:18 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.81% | -0.91% |
| 1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.34% | -1.34% |
| 1/8/2026 5:00:02 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.34% | -0.67% |
| 12/23/2025 1:43:04 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.85% | -0.42% |
| 12/22/2025 6:49:39 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -1.27% | +0.64% |
| 12/19/2025 4:38:22 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +0.43% | -0.22% |
| 12/17/2025 4:02:54 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.53% | -0.27% |
| 12/12/2025 11:35:37 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -0.41% | +0.20% |
| 12/11/2025 8:07:07 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -0.17% | +0.08% |
| 12/10/2025 11:45:00 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.10% |
| 12/10/2025 10:06:22 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.10% |
| 12/10/2025 9:59:59 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.19% |
| 12/10/2025 9:58:25 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.19% |
| 12/8/2025 4:22:22 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -0.10% | +0.10% |
| 11/25/2025 1:10:38 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.45% | -1.23% |
| 11/25/2025 10:11:27 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.45% | -1.23% |
| 11/21/2025 4:18:30 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +3.57% | -1.78% |
| 11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.30% | +2.30% |
| 11/10/2025 7:15:17 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 11/10/2025 5:17:27 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.58% | +0.29% |
| 11/7/2025 10:50:35 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | -0.34% | +0.34% |
| 11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.13% | +0.57% |
| 11/4/2025 2:28:09 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.13% | +0.57% |
| 11/3/2025 9:06:33 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.25% | -0.62% |
| 11/3/2025 7:15:45 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.51% | -0.26% |
| 11/3/2025 5:15:56 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.25% | -0.62% |
| 11/3/2025 3:04:15 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.25% | +0.62% |
| 10/30/2025 5:30:59 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.12% | -0.06% |
| 10/30/2025 1:30:10 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.37% | -0.68% |
| 10/30/2025 1:00:07 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.37% | -0.68% |
| 10/29/2025 11:38:10 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 10:44:00 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.10% |
| 10/29/2025 10:11:32 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 10:00:33 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:40:37 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:34:46 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 9:30:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 9:19:58 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.98% | +0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:15:22 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:15:00 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.98% | +0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:08:09 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.10% | -0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 9:05:01 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.98% | -0.49% |
| 10/29/2025 9:02:24 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/29/2025 8:57:22 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/16/2025 6:04:41 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.35% | +0.67% |
| 10/16/2025 4:52:44 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.15% | -1.07% |
| 10/16/2025 4:01:47 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +2.15% | -1.07% |
| 10/15/2025 9:05:27 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +4.55% | -2.28% |
| 10/15/2025 8:00:24 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +4.55% | -2.28% |
| 10/15/2025 5:49:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.33% | +0.16% |
| 10/15/2025 1:03:55 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -0.33% | +0.49% |
| 10/15/2025 12:59:00 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -0.33% | +0.49% |
| 10/14/2025 11:49:39 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 10/14/2025 10:05:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.48% | +0.74% |
| 10/14/2025 9:31:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.06% | -0.53% |
| 10/14/2025 9:15:03 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 10/14/2025 7:56:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 10/3/2025 6:45:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -3.96% | -1.98% |
| 10/3/2025 5:48:20 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.96% | +1.98% |
| 10/3/2025 5:24:31 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.96% | +1.98% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.36% | -0.68% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.36% | -0.68% |
| 9/25/2025 9:08:46 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.04% | +2.52% |
| 9/25/2025 6:06:52 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.04% | +2.52% |
| 9/25/2025 4:23:00 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.04% | +2.52% |
| 9/25/2025 2:39:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.93% | +0.97% |
| 9/23/2025 8:17:55 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.14% | +0.07% |
| 9/23/2025 4:45:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.14% | +0.07% |
| 9/22/2025 10:12:27 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.51% | -0.25% |
| 9/22/2025 7:01:00 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.51% | -0.25% |
| 9/19/2025 7:19:43 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.05% | +0.02% |
| 9/19/2025 3:30:59 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.05% | +0.02% |
| 9/18/2025 2:13:16 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.19% | -0.10% |
| 9/18/2025 2:00:01 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.22% | -0.11% |
| 9/17/2025 11:14:58 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.61% | +0.30% |
| 9/17/2025 10:48:21 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:45:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:16:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:12:22 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/17/2025 10:09:39 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:03:46 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.19% |
| 9/17/2025 10:00:17 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.39% | -0.39% |
| 9/16/2025 3:38:44 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.64% | -0.82% |
| 9/16/2025 3:30:44 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +1.64% | -1.64% |
| 9/15/2025 4:08:28 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +2.91% | -2.91% |
| 9/12/2025 2:49:43 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +2.70% | -1.35% |
| 9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/4/2025 5:58:21 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.10% | +1.05% |
| 9/3/2025 5:47:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.69% | +0.35% |
| 9/3/2025 5:46:57 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | -0.69% | +1.04% |
| 9/3/2025 4:33:59 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.44% | +2.44% |
| 9/3/2025 4:33:52 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.44% | +1.22% |
| 8/29/2025 4:29:23 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | -5.40% | -2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 2:20:50 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 2:11:04 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 10:48:16 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/29/2025 10:10:30 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +5.40% |
| 8/29/2025 2:27:21 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -5.40% | +2.70% |
| 8/27/2025 5:54:14 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.11% | +1.56% |
| 8/27/2025 4:26:23 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.11% | +1.56% |
| 8/26/2025 6:50:08 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -5.00% | -2.50% |
| 8/26/2025 8:42:05 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/25/2025 5:57:59 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.26% | +2.63% |
| 8/25/2025 8:38:14 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +0.45% | -0.22% |
| 8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM | short term down | 8 days later | +0.05% | -0.05% |
| 8/22/2025 8:13:21 PM | short term cautious down | 8 days later | +0.05% | -0.02% |
| 8/20/2025 4:24:10 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -0.83% |
| 8/14/2025 11:48:29 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.74% | +0.37% |
| 8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +0.92% | -1.38% |
| 8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.92% | -0.46% |
| 8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.43% | -1.22% |
| 8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.10% | +0.55% |
| 8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.82% | +0.91% |
| 8/5/2025 12:45:01 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.90% | -0.45% |
| 7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.47% | -0.73% |
| 7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -1.47% | -0.73% |
