explicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Federal Reserve 9.0
Central Bank
Stephen Miran 7.0
Fed's Stephen Miran: I see 'substantial' disinflation coming from housing
10/15/2025 8:00:24 PM
yields
Monetary policy works with a lag of 12-18 months, so policy should be forecast dependent. I expect substantial disinflation in coming months, especially from housing inflation, indicating need for cautious easing over the medium term. Since inflation is expected to decline substantially in the medium term, interest rates (yields) are likely to be cut cautiously to reflect anticipated disinflation.
133 calls
+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
10/15/2025 5:49:02 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.33% +0.16%
10/15/2025 1:03:55 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.33% +0.49%
10/15/2025 12:59:00 PM short term sharp down 5 days later -0.33% +0.49%
10/14/2025 11:49:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/14/2025 10:05:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.48% +0.74%
10/14/2025 9:31:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.06% -0.53%
10/14/2025 9:15:03 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/14/2025 7:56:12 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +1.06% +0.53%
10/3/2025 6:45:12 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later -3.96% -1.98%
10/3/2025 5:48:20 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -3.96% +1.98%
10/3/2025 5:24:31 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later -3.96% +1.98%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.36% -0.68%
9/25/2025 9:08:46 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 6:06:52 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 4:23:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.04% +2.52%
9/25/2025 2:39:06 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.93% +0.97%
9/23/2025 8:17:55 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.14% +0.07%
9/23/2025 4:45:06 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.14% +0.07%
9/22/2025 10:12:27 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/22/2025 7:01:00 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.51% -0.25%
9/19/2025 7:19:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.05% +0.02%
9/19/2025 3:30:59 PM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.05% +0.02%
9/18/2025 2:13:16 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.19% -0.10%
9/18/2025 2:00:01 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.22% -0.11%
9/17/2025 11:14:58 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.61% +0.30%
9/17/2025 10:48:21 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:45:01 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:12:22 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.61% -0.30%
9/17/2025 10:09:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:03:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/17/2025 10:00:17 PM short term down 5 days later +0.39% -0.39%
9/16/2025 3:38:44 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.64% -0.82%
9/16/2025 3:30:44 PM short term down 5 days later +1.64% -1.64%
9/15/2025 4:08:28 PM short term down 6 days later +2.91% -2.91%
9/12/2025 2:49:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.70% -1.35%
9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/4/2025 5:58:21 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.10% +1.05%
9/3/2025 5:47:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.69% +0.35%
9/3/2025 5:46:57 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later -0.69% +1.04%
9/3/2025 4:33:59 PM short term down 5 days later -2.44% +2.44%
9/3/2025 4:33:52 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.44% +1.22%
8/29/2025 4:29:23 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -5.40% -2.70%
8/29/2025 2:20:50 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 2:11:04 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:48:16 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:10:30 AM short term down 6 days later -5.40% +5.40%
8/29/2025 2:27:21 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/27/2025 5:54:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/27/2025 4:26:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/26/2025 6:50:08 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -5.00% -2.50%
8/26/2025 8:42:05 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 5:57:59 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.26% +2.63%
8/25/2025 8:38:14 AM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.45% -0.22%
8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM short term down 8 days later +0.05% -0.05%
8/22/2025 8:13:21 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/20/2025 4:24:10 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.66% -0.83%
8/14/2025 11:48:29 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.74% +0.37%
8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later +0.92% -1.38%
8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.43% -1.22%
8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.10% +0.55%
8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/5/2025 12:45:01 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.90% -0.45%
7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
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