explicit

implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals

implicit
Federal Reserve 9.0
Central Bank
Bill Dudley 7.0
9/15/2025 4:08:28 PM
yields
I expect a quarter point cut. It's baked in the cake. I'd be surprised if it did do anything else. The market is pricing in rate cuts, and the interviewee expects a 25 basis point cut this week, indicating short-term downward direction in yields.
133 calls
+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
9/12/2025 2:49:43 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.70% -1.35%
9/10/2025 2:40:48 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/4/2025 5:58:21 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +2.10% +1.05%
9/3/2025 5:47:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.69% +0.35%
9/3/2025 5:46:57 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later -0.69% +1.04%
9/3/2025 4:33:59 PM short term down 5 days later -2.44% +2.44%
9/3/2025 4:33:52 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.44% +1.22%
8/29/2025 4:29:23 PM short term cautious up 6 days later -5.40% -2.70%
8/29/2025 2:20:50 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 2:11:04 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:48:16 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/29/2025 10:10:30 AM short term down 6 days later -5.40% +5.40%
8/29/2025 2:27:21 AM short term cautious down 6 days later -5.40% +2.70%
8/27/2025 5:54:14 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/27/2025 4:26:23 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.11% +1.56%
8/26/2025 6:50:08 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -5.00% -2.50%
8/26/2025 8:42:05 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 5:57:59 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.26% +2.63%
8/25/2025 8:38:14 AM short term cautious down 7 days later +0.45% -0.22%
8/22/2025 11:32:42 PM short term down 8 days later +0.05% -0.05%
8/22/2025 8:13:21 PM short term cautious down 8 days later +0.05% -0.02%
8/20/2025 4:24:10 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.66% -0.83%
8/14/2025 11:48:29 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.74% +0.37%
8/12/2025 11:45:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 11:24:12 PM medium term sharp down 20 days later +0.92% -1.38%
8/12/2025 4:25:35 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/12/2025 7:46:47 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.43% -1.22%
8/7/2025 6:16:13 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.10% +0.55%
8/7/2025 5:34:00 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -1.82% +0.91%
8/5/2025 12:45:01 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +0.90% -0.45%
7/30/2025 11:06:39 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
7/30/2025 9:54:37 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.47% -0.73%
Show all 33 yields results

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