Is the reaction we're seeing in European markets this morning valid?

We are really facing a new regime, which is a low trust world regime where geopolitics is really structural and entrenched in the way we approach macro and markets. We need to be ready for a sequence of shocks.

Is there any way the expected slowdown in Europe can be avoided assuming the strait fully reopens in the next 30 to 60 days?

Europe is one of the most vulnerable regions because of its energy dependency. In our base case, we assume a progressive normalization starting from June. We still have high inflation and growth flirting around zero. An opportunity for Europe is to leverage on productivity implementation due to AI, automation, and pharma. It's not a call on Europe but one of selectivity.

Does the Uber bid for Delivery Hero signal more interest from US investors looking at the valuation gap in Europe?

Valuation has been one of the key variables making us interested in investing in Europe, including the story on higher dividend yield. But you really need to focus on stories that seem to be more structural rather than just what might be cheaper today.

Is the concentration and valuation story in the United States going to an extreme? Is that leading to a recalculation in terms of flows, Europe versus the US?

We see a material interest in Europe that is not only related to valuation appeal but stays more on credibility and consistency of the institutions. Given the high level of uncertainty, looking for institutions of stability and credibility is what is getting traction across our clients.

How do you feel about the European banking sector? Some of the best performing stocks today are banking stocks despite interest rates moving lower.

This is a sector we have been positioning in and looking at in a constructive way. Fundamentals and the operational model are good. Relative to the US banking sector, this is something we have been positioning on and probably will continue.

You have a negative view on the euro and the pound and a neutral view on the dollar. Talk us through that negative view on the euro.

Over the medium to long term, we believe the US dollar is going to weaken unless the Fed turns and hikes rates. The US dollar versus the euro has been moving in a narrow range, more opportunistically related to the vulnerability of the region to the current geopolitical situation. Our medium to long term call is still that the US dollar is going to get weaker and will be less central to the allocation of our portfolios.