Even if the war ends tomorrow, it will take four months to get back to 80% of pre-war flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The need to build more resilient systems going forward was emphasized.

This came from a conversation with Dr. Sultan Al-Jaber, who runs ADNOC and UAE energy strategy. Even a miraculous breakthrough won't change the four-month timeline.

The ships moving through the Iran channel are likely paying a fee to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy. This is the normalization of the 'Tehran toll booth' — Iran seeking to control every ship traversing the waterway. The question is whether President Trump will accept this end state. Gulf countries want full normalization, not this limited arrangement. 20 ships are moving versus the normal 100 per day.

This represents a near-term ceiling, not a return to normal. If every ship must get Iranian approval, we won't normalize at the 100-ship level.

The UAE's second Hormuz bypass pipeline is 50% complete and expected operational by 2027. This is the future — everyone will try to replicate infrastructure that avoids the Strait of Hormuz, similar to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. However, there is no silver bullet for this summer's peak demand season. Every day without the Strait fully open means ship movements far below February levels.

Dr. Sultan emphasized how fast the UAE is moving with shovels in the ground.