US-Iran deal prospects (with Tom, Jumana)

explicit

NDX

RUT

explicit

Metals

explicit

U.S. Government 6.2
Government Agency
Marco Rubio 7.0

US-Iran deal prospects (with Tom, Jumana)

dxy

Dollar down, yields down, oil down.

wti

Oil drops. Brent crude down almost 6% on the assumption of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

5/6/2026 8:05:33 AM	short term down	5 days later	+7.77%	-7.77%
4/12/2026 6:29:43 PM	short term down	7 days later	-9.56%	+9.56%
4/12/2026 6:27:38 PM	short term down	7 days later	-9.56%	+9.56%
3/20/2026 12:39:47 AM	short term up	7 days later	+16.74%	+16.74%
11/3/2025 11:33:50 AM	short term cautious up	6 days later	-0.71%	-0.36%
10/23/2025 12:15:14 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-1.66%	-2.49%
9/15/2025 11:20:00 AM	short term up	6 days later	-2.91%	-2.91%

Show all wti results

yields

Dollar down, yields down, oil down.

8/26/2025 3:50:33 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.00%	+2.50%

Tom

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is saying a deal with Iran could come as soon as today. The U.S. is sounding cautiously optimistic.
Jumana

The main focus for markets is what happens to the Strait of Hormuz. If we get a 60-day ceasefire, will the strait be fully reopened? If it is reopened, does the market move on from the story even though bigger geopolitical issues remain unresolved?
Tom

The market is focused on the Strait of Hormuz question and is punting the nuclear risk into the background. About 33 vessels have managed to cross through the strait, suggesting a quicker reopening might be possible.
Jumana

Even if the strait reopened today, it would take four months to normalize to just 80% of pre-war levels, and not until 2027 to get to full pre-war levels. There is a considerable backlog of about 800 vessels still stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Tom

Kevin Hassett of the Trump administration says that once the strait is reopened, oil prices fall sharply and the Fed still has scope to resume its rate-cutting cycle.
Jumana

Christine Lagarde gave an interview talking about the possibility of revising upwards their inflation forecast come June. A rate hike is pretty much priced in for June. If a deal happens and oil plunges to $80, that could change the calculus for policymakers.
Tom

The move higher in yields and the selloff in global bond markets isn't just an inflation story. It's also a concern about global deficits and global debt. Real yields have moved higher as well.
Jumana

Consumer sentiment is poor and people are worried about what inflation will look like in a couple of years. The world has shifted towards expecting interest rate hikes.
Tom

Huawei is closing the gap in chip manufacturing versus TSMC, even without relying heavily on the latest equipment from ASML. This could have repercussions on ASML and feeds into the debate in Washington about whether restricting US tech catalyzes innovation in China.
Jumana

Uber has offered to take over Delivery Hero in a deal that could value the German company at about $11.6 billion. This comes as Uber looks to ramp up competition with DoorDash globally.
Tom

One of Delivery Hero's prized assets is Talabat in the Middle East. About €9 billion of the bid is coming from the Middle East assets alone.

SignalTube

markets at a glance