Former NSA John Bolton on Trump calling for Strait of Hormuz blockade: it "makes sense"

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Former NSA John Bolton on Trump calling for Strait of Hormuz blockade: it "makes sense"

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Simply the fact that the Gulf is open will cause prices to drop dramatically... think prices would come down very quickly especially when it looks like It is safe to bring a maritime traffic through the Gulf. His thesis is that the current high prices are due to the Strait of Hormuz being closed/unsafe. A successful U.S. military action to reopen it would restore the pre-crisis oil glut, leading to a rapid price decline.

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Asks for Bolton's take on failed Pakistan talks and Trump's announced blockade.

Host 1
John Bolton

True peace requires regime change in Iran. Trump lifting sanctions on Iranian oil was a mistake motivated by fear of rising oil prices. A blockade makes sense to stop all oil (Gulf and Iranian) from exiting.

He argues allowing Iran to ship oil finances their military against the US.
Asks if recent events in Iran constitute regime change.

Host 3
John Bolton

Recent events do not constitute regime change, but have fractured the regime. The ceasefire was a mistake as it let Iran regroup.

Claims the opposition is widespread but disorganized.
Asks about the end goal and durability of the regime.

Host 1
John Bolton

The regime must be replaced. Failure to open the Strait now guarantees higher oil prices long-term and Gulf Arab subordination.

Argues patience is needed as the regime has been built over 47 years.
Asks if going to Pakistan negotiations was smart.

Host 1
John Bolton

The ceasefire, not the negotiations, gave Iran a card. Pressure must be reapplied. The immediate goal is to open the Strait for Gulf oil, not Iranian oil.
Asks if his op-ed means putting U.S. forces on the ground in Iran.

Host 3
John Bolton

Yes, targeting fortified Iranian islands is more strategic than attacking Qeshm Island, to make the Strait safe for transit.

Describes threats like anti-ship missiles and drone swarms.
Asks about the timeline for regime change and political pressure from midterms and market uncertainty.

Notes that prolonged conflict creates market uncertainty and affects voter concerns like affordability.

Host 1
John Bolton

Cannot put a timeframe on it, but victory is the goal. If the Strait is reopened, oil prices would come down very quickly.

Claims the world was awash with oil before the conflict, and simply reopening the Gulf would cause a dramatic price drop.
Asks if Iran can be denuclearized without regime change.

Host 3
John Bolton

No. The regime's behavior cannot be changed, so the regime itself must be changed to remove the nuclear threat.

Quotes George W. Bush on dangerous weapons and dangerous people.

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