Abeer Abu Omar details the U.S.-Iran MOU: Strait of Hormuz reopens upon signing, followed by 60 days of technical talks on Iran's nuclear program. Iran will not charge transit fees during this period. Israel rejects the deal and will continue operations in Lebanon, creating a key risk. The deal is a positive step but fragile, with potential for a return to hostilities if nuclear talks fail.

Oliver Crook reports from the G7 summit that the U.S.-Iran deal is central to discussions. Leaders are curious about the timeline and the role of American partners in the Strait of Hormuz and the deal's architecture. European involvement in demining missions and sanction relief is expected. Trump also threatened 100% tariffs on French wine over tech taxes.

Ven Ram views the market response to the U.S.-Iran deal as measured and valid. The rally in rates has been mild, with central banks still expected to raise rates. He warns that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could be hawkish, potentially calling for a period of temporarily high rates, and may do away with the dot plot and forward guidance, which would increase rates volatility.

Kelsey Berro expects the Fed to stay on hold and remove the easing bias, with no dissenters. Core inflation stickiness is from supply shocks (energy, tariffs), not demand; wages and shelter are moderating. The bond rally is muted due to Fed event risk. If the Fed holds and the MOU deal holds, the market could rally this week. The balance sheet is about as small as it can be relative to GDP.