Kelsey Berro expects the Fed to stay on hold and remove the easing bias, with no dissenters. Core inflation stickiness is from supply shocks (energy, tariffs), not demand; wages and shelter are moderating. The bond rally is muted due to Fed event risk. If the Fed holds and the MOU deal holds, the market could rally this week. The balance sheet is about as small as it can be relative to GDP.
explicit
implicit
RUT
implicit
Metals
USD
JPMorgan
9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Kelsey Berro 8.5
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Kelsey Berro 8.5
6/15/2026 2:19:28 PM
ndx
If the Fed holds and the MOU deal holds, the market could rally this week. Lower oil prices are supportive for equities.
wti
The deal reduces energy supply risk, but the muted bond rally and Fed event risk suggest caution.
yields
The Fed needs to stay on hold and we need to remove the easing bias within the statement.
| 5/26/2026 2:08:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.13% | -0.13% |
| 5/21/2026 9:57:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 9:55:02 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 7:18:44 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -1.04% |
| 5/21/2026 11:46:46 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 10:34:29 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -2.08% |
| 5/21/2026 9:18:32 AM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -2.08% | -3.13% |
| 5/21/2026 9:17:57 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.67% | +0.67% |
| 5/12/2026 2:35:01 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.17% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +0.27% | +0.27% |
| 5/6/2026 7:59:28 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 5/5/2026 9:11:37 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.24% | +0.62% |
| 4/30/2026 2:45:27 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.50% |
| 4/30/2026 2:09:30 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 4/30/2026 1:27:38 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -0.50% | -0.25% |
| 4/29/2026 12:00:22 AM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +4.15% | -6.22% |
| 3/31/2026 2:37:12 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -0.63% | -0.31% |
| 3/13/2026 9:15:48 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +2.70% | +2.70% |
| 3/11/2026 11:21:40 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -1.66% |
| 3/5/2026 1:17:37 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.81% | +0.91% |
| 2/6/2026 5:06:02 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.57% | +1.79% |
| 12/11/2025 1:18:26 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.03% | +1.03% |
| 12/10/2025 9:25:29 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.53% | -0.27% |
| 12/1/2025 2:17:57 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 11/21/2025 1:54:47 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.57% | +3.57% |
| 11/7/2025 6:12:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -0.34% | +0.17% |
| 11/4/2025 12:53:31 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.73% | -1.86% |
| 10/30/2025 1:40:41 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.12% | +0.06% |
| 10/29/2025 8:30:24 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/21/2025 2:15:04 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 10/16/2025 5:42:00 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.15% | +1.07% |
| 10/1/2025 3:11:20 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.30% | +1.65% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.48% | +1.74% |
| 9/22/2025 5:25:48 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -1.67% | -1.67% |
| 9/17/2025 6:49:25 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/11/2025 11:57:02 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.66% | +0.33% |
| 9/11/2025 4:51:16 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:53:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/10/2025 6:33:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 8/28/2025 1:07:30 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.38% | +0.19% |
| 8/15/2025 9:10:00 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.52% | +0.76% |
| 8/12/2025 4:29:28 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.92% | +0.46% |
| 8/8/2025 2:04:22 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +1.59% | -0.80% |
| 8/4/2025 11:59:32 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.84% | -1.84% |
