Market strategy and macro outlook (with Francine Lacqua)

Markets are rational - more chaotic world creates more spending on resilience (military, energy, tech). Bond yields rising because growth expected to be okay. Central banks shouldn't hike but may make gestures. Resolution likely as incentives on both sides get acute. China cannot risk global recession. European trade and cyclical parts of market depressed but would react to resolution. UK political risk premium already priced in.

explicit

RUT

explicit

Metals

inferred

JPMorgan 9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Karen Ward 9.0

Market strategy and macro outlook (with Francine Lacqua)

dxy

Focus on European trade and cyclical markets suggests USD may not have strong directional bias in near term as geopolitical risks are balanced.

5/12/2026 2:35:01 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.50%	+0.50%
4/23/2026 3:15:36 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+0.38%	-0.38%
3/16/2026 6:26:04 PM	short term up	6 days later	-0.63%	-0.63%
3/9/2026 6:55:49 AM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+0.89%	+1.34%
3/4/2026 2:05:06 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.28%	-0.14%
2/24/2026 12:51:39 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.92%	-0.96%
2/23/2026 2:58:04 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.87%	-0.93%
2/12/2026 8:51:59 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.52%	+1.26%
1/29/2026 8:11:16 PM	long term cautious down	60 days later	+3.06%	-1.53%
1/29/2026 5:15:49 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.97%	-0.48%
1/29/2026 2:52:04 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.65%	-0.32%

Show all dxy results

ndx

More chaotic world creates more spending on technology resilience. Companies taking advantage of technological change.

5/13/2026 12:36:48 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.57%	+1.29%
5/13/2026 12:34:18 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.57%	+1.29%
5/12/2026 6:08:55 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.27%	+0.63%
3/16/2026 6:26:04 PM	short term up	6 days later	-2.39%	-2.39%
2/24/2026 12:51:39 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-2.17%	-1.08%
12/10/2025 9:48:13 PM	short term up	5 days later	-2.16%	-2.16%
11/18/2025 7:37:06 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.95%	-0.47%
11/18/2025 1:29:07 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.95%	-0.47%
10/3/2025 8:26:15 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+3.37%	+3.37%
10/2/2025 2:34:39 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.42%	+0.71%
9/30/2025 3:03:56 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.32%	+1.32%
9/30/2025 2:47:47 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+1.32%	+0.66%
9/10/2025 6:33:02 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+3.37%	+3.37%
8/28/2025 10:33:52 PM	short term up	5 days later	-+0.00%	-+0.00%
8/7/2025 4:17:53 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.39%	+0.39%
8/5/2025 6:19:07 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.91%	+0.91%

Show all ndx results

rut

Cyclical part of market looking very depressed. Lots underneath surface will react if resolution comes through. European trade completely on pause until resolved.

8/8/2025 2:04:22 AM	medium term cautious down	22 days later	+6.12%	-3.06%

wti

Base case is resolution. Incentives on both sides getting acute. 80% of energy from Strait goes to Asia.

5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+6.52%	+3.26%
5/13/2026 12:36:48 AM	short term up	5 days later	+6.52%	+6.52%
5/12/2026 8:21:02 PM	short term up	5 days later	+7.56%	+7.56%
5/12/2026 5:23:45 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+7.56%	+3.78%
5/12/2026 2:41:08 PM	short term up	5 days later	+7.56%	+7.56%
5/12/2026 12:00:24 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+7.56%	+11.34%
5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM	short term cautious up	6 days later	+6.34%	+3.17%
5/5/2026 9:11:37 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+3.14%	+1.57%
4/20/2026 6:16:40 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+6.45%	-3.22%
4/9/2026 8:26:09 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+8.80%	-4.40%
3/27/2026 4:46:35 PM	short term up	7 days later	+9.26%	+9.26%
3/16/2026 6:26:04 PM	short term cautious up	6 days later	-8.40%	-4.20%
3/4/2026 8:50:44 AM	short term up	5 days later	+3.01%	+3.01%
3/3/2026 2:24:23 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+26.94%	+40.40%
3/3/2026 11:01:30 AM	short term up	5 days later	+26.94%	+26.94%

Show all wti results

yields

Bond yields rising because growth expected to be okay. Bond market telling you there is economic resilience.

5/5/2026 9:11:37 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.24%	+0.62%
4/30/2026 2:45:27 AM	short term up	5 days later	-0.50%	-0.50%
4/30/2026 2:09:30 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-0.50%	-0.25%
4/30/2026 1:27:38 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-0.50%	-0.25%
4/29/2026 12:00:22 AM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	+4.15%	-6.22%
3/31/2026 2:37:12 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-0.63%	-0.31%
3/13/2026 9:15:48 PM	short term up	7 days later	+2.70%	+2.70%
3/11/2026 11:21:40 PM	short term up	5 days later	-1.66%	-1.66%
3/5/2026 1:17:37 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.81%	+0.91%
2/6/2026 5:06:02 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-3.57%	+1.79%
12/11/2025 1:18:26 AM	short term down	5 days later	-1.03%	+1.03%
12/10/2025 9:25:29 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.53%	-0.27%
12/1/2025 2:17:57 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.03%	+2.03%
11/21/2025 1:54:47 PM	medium term up	21 days later	+3.57%	+3.57%
11/7/2025 6:12:18 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	-0.34%	+0.17%
11/4/2025 12:53:31 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-3.73%	-1.86%
10/30/2025 1:40:41 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.12%	+0.06%
10/29/2025 8:30:24 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/21/2025 2:15:04 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.11%	-0.56%
10/16/2025 5:42:00 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.15%	+1.07%
10/1/2025 3:11:20 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.30%	+1.65%
9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.48%	+1.74%
9/22/2025 5:25:48 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-1.67%	-1.67%
9/17/2025 6:49:25 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.61%	-0.30%
9/11/2025 11:57:02 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.66%	+0.33%
9/11/2025 4:51:16 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.37%
9/10/2025 9:53:06 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.19%
9/10/2025 6:33:02 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.19%
8/28/2025 1:07:30 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.38%	+0.19%
8/15/2025 9:10:00 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	-1.52%	+0.76%
8/12/2025 4:29:28 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.92%	+0.46%
8/8/2025 2:04:22 AM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+1.59%	-0.80%
8/4/2025 11:59:32 PM	short term down	6 days later	+1.84%	-1.84%

Show all yields results

Do you expect a correction given geopolitics?

Francine Lacqua
Karen Ward

Don't think so. Tactical aspect: darkest before dawn in political negotiations. If you sold market six days after Liberation Day when US put 145% tariffs on China, market is now up 50% from that day. Bigger force: more chaotic world creates more spending - government spending on military, energy infrastructure, technology resilience, and companies rerouting supply chains and taking advantage of technological change.

Tactically, not wanting to be top-tailed in back of your mind.
Bond yields rising - what do you bet on?

Francine Lacqua
Karen Ward

Bond yields rising because growth expected to be okay. Came into year expecting rate cuts, Iran situation and rising headline inflation took cuts off table, market thinking about hikes. Bond market telling you there is economic resilience - if Iran was going to cause global recession, bond yields would be going down.
How much do you worry about rate hike that has to be reversed if GDP damage is too strong?

Francine Lacqua
Karen Ward

Central banks shouldn't hike at all. Headline and core inflation will rise, central banks nervous. Whether to act depends on if inflation shows up in labor market. Workers confident in jobs ask for more pay - that's vicious cycle. Labor markets in West aren't in that shape. Fundamental difference between now and 2022.

Not because of AI. Genuinely uncertainty of politics creating hesitancy of businesses, wait and see degree.
You think central banks should not hike but they will?

Francine Lacqua
Karen Ward

Bank of England or Fed will. ECB focuses more on headline inflation so maybe one or two from ECB. Will be little more than a gesture, a shot across the helm. Market is overpriced - big opportunity in short rates.
Where else do you see opportunities?

Francine Lacqua
Karen Ward

Base case is resolution. Incentives on both sides getting acute. 80% of energy from Strait goes to Asia - Iran inflicting economic pain on its friends and allies. China domestic economy incredibly weak, only doing okay because of strong exports. China cannot risk global recession. If resolution happens, European trade completely on pause until resolved, cyclical part of market looking very depressed. Even with benchmarks at record highs, lots underneath surface that would react.

We don't get tweets to learn what Xi Jinping is thinking. Pressure is intensifying.
UK political upheaval - does it weigh on financial markets?

Francine Lacqua
Karen Ward

Risk premium now in price. Waiting for steps to play through - Burnham getting selected, who else on ballot. Holding pattern. What individuals say when not in office differs from when close to taking office. Risk premium reflects left-leaning agenda comments, but as uncertainty resolves, expect more centrist voice. Lessons learned in UK - very much in hock to bond market, that will craft agenda. Hope to see growth agenda, not another round of tax to spend.

Spent a year in government myself. Third year of tax to spend would keep UK stuck in a rut.
Talk about the UK. Political upheaval with a lame duck PM. Does this weigh on financial markets?

Francine Lacqua
Karen Ward

The risk premium is now in the price. We're in a holding pattern. What individuals say when not in office is very different to what they say when close to taking office. The risk premium reflects a more left-leaning agenda, but as we get closer to resolution, we'll hear a more centrist voice.
Do you see anything pointing to a market event because of UK fiscal positioning?

Francine Lacqua
Karen Ward

Lessons have been learned. The UK is very much in hock to the bond market, which will craft the agenda. I hope to see not just fiscal restraint but a growth agenda. If we hear more tax to spend for a third year, we'll stay stuck in a rut. I'm optimistic we'll get a sensible agenda on the table.

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