Market repricing prolonged conflict, Asia vulnerable to terms of trade shock (with Ivan Man, David)

Yields

NDX

RUT

Oil

Metals

explicit

JPMorgan 9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Sylvia Sheng 8.5

Market repricing prolonged conflict, Asia vulnerable to terms of trade shock (with Ivan Man, David)

dxy

Clearly in this round, the safe haven bet will push up the dollar. Sheng explicitly states dollar is getting haven bid due to Middle East conflict, overriding structural bearish dollar positioning based on monetary policy divergence.

3/4/2026 2:05:06 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.28%	-0.14%
2/24/2026 12:51:39 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.92%	-0.96%
2/23/2026 2:58:04 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.87%	-0.93%
2/12/2026 8:51:59 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+2.52%	+1.26%
1/29/2026 8:11:16 PM	long term cautious down	60 days later	+3.06%	-1.53%
1/29/2026 5:15:49 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.97%	-0.48%
1/29/2026 2:52:04 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.65%	-0.32%

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How are you thinking about markets now?

Ivan Man
Sylvia Sheng

Market is repricing a more prolonged conflict in Middle East. Too early to assess whether we'll see persistent oil price shocks.

Historically, geopolitical events don't have lasting impact unless they have sustained impact on macro fundamentals, especially oil prices.
What's your base case for how long this lasts?

David
Sylvia Sheng

Very difficult to talk about base case given fluid situation. Compared to last week, definitely longer than people were pricing in.

Investors' initial reaction was to fade geopolitical volatility based on 2024-25 flare-ups where oil failed to sustain rallies. If wrong and this lasts longer, could see sharper reaction due to positioning.
Why is dollar suddenly preferred haven and not gold?

Ivan Man
Sylvia Sheng

Positioning plays important role. People were positioned for weaker dollar due to fading US growth advantage and monetary policy divergence. Safe haven bid now pushing up dollar.

Structurally dollar is overvalued, but short-term haven flows dominate.
Do we need to put Asia selloff in context of how oil affects fundamentals?

David
Sylvia Sheng

Asia as whole likely to experience more negative terms of trade shock. 10% increase in oil prices widens Asia's current account deficit by 30 basis points.

Asia is hit harder because they are oil importers mostly, while US has big energy sector that benefits.

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