implicit
NDX
RUT
implicit
Metals
explicit
JPMorgan
9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
John Bilton 9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
John Bilton 9.0
3/4/2026 2:05:06 PM
dxy
We do have this general expectation that dollar probably does weaken... our long-term projection continues to be around 1.26 [for EUR/USD].
Administration wants weaker dollar, but near-term safe-haven flows provide support during 'hot conflict'. Expects Euro-dollar range 1.16-1.20s near-term, moving to 1.26 long-term.
| 2/24/2026 12:51:39 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.92% | -0.96% |
| 2/23/2026 2:58:04 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.87% | -0.93% |
| 2/12/2026 8:51:59 AM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.52% | +1.26% |
| 1/29/2026 8:11:16 PM | long term cautious down | 60 days later | +3.06% | -1.53% |
| 1/29/2026 5:15:49 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.97% | -0.48% |
| 1/29/2026 2:52:04 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.65% | -0.32% |
wti
Markets are 'rationally repricing things such as oil' due to conflict. Notes Brent front contract up ~15% since conflict started, indicating near-term upward pressure, but curve shows longer-dated contracts up only 2-3%, suggesting market sees risk as near-term.
| 3/4/2026 8:50:44 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.01% | +3.01% |
| 3/3/2026 2:24:23 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 3/3/2026 11:01:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +26.94% |
yields
Points to 'steeper curves over the intermediate term' due to underlying global growth momentum from fiscal spending/CapEx, despite conflict denting confidence. Near-term risk is market misreading this as persistent inflation threat.
| 2/6/2026 5:06:02 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -3.57% | +1.79% |
| 12/11/2025 1:18:26 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.03% | +1.03% |
| 12/10/2025 9:25:29 AM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.53% | -0.27% |
| 12/1/2025 2:17:57 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.03% | +2.03% |
| 11/21/2025 1:54:47 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +3.57% | +3.57% |
| 11/7/2025 6:12:18 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -0.34% | +0.17% |
| 11/4/2025 12:53:31 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | -3.73% | -1.86% |
| 10/30/2025 1:40:41 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.12% | +0.06% |
| 10/29/2025 8:30:24 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.10% | +0.05% |
| 10/21/2025 2:15:04 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +1.11% | -0.56% |
| 10/16/2025 5:42:00 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +2.15% | +1.07% |
| 10/1/2025 3:11:20 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.30% | +1.65% |
| 9/30/2025 10:13:15 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.48% | +1.74% |
| 9/22/2025 5:25:48 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -1.67% | -1.67% |
| 9/17/2025 6:49:25 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +0.61% | -0.30% |
| 9/11/2025 11:57:02 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.66% | +0.33% |
| 9/11/2025 4:51:16 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.37% |
| 9/10/2025 9:53:06 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 9/10/2025 6:33:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 8/28/2025 1:07:30 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.38% | +0.19% |
| 8/15/2025 9:10:00 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -1.52% | +0.76% |
| 8/12/2025 4:29:28 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +0.92% | +0.46% |
| 8/8/2025 2:04:22 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +1.59% | -0.80% |
| 8/4/2025 11:59:32 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.84% | -1.84% |
